certainly not by fWAR. Not even close. Where do you get 3 WAR?
He's on pace for about 2.7-2.8 bWAR, so I'm guessing he's rounding that up.
Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:39 AM
certainly not by fWAR. Not even close. Where do you get 3 WAR?
Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:58 AM
He's on pace for about 2.7-2.8 bWAR, so I'm guessing he's rounding that up.
thanks,
It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins.
Posted 14 August 2017 - 12:18 PM
Fangraphs did a study. If you have a low OBP team, who hits for power, you are better off adding more of the same kind of player, than a high OBP player.
Mauer might make 2 FWAR this year, but I doubt it. I have no interest in comparing him to SS, C, and pitchers ("league average hitter"), but only their other options and other 1B. It seems clear he can't play 140 games and be effective anymore, so if you have him, you need someone that can play 1B 40-60 times. With a tiny bench, not sure how that works really.
The real question is, do they have someone that can play 1B or 3B or RF (if you move Sano or Kepler) that is better than Mauer in 2019. Given that he is league median for 1B (and you'd assume he continues to age and his hitting and baserunning will get worse, that's what age does), I'd hope they can find someone that is league median or better that will be here for more than 1 year.
Corner OF FA+Kepler at 1B is probably > Kepler in RF and Mauer at 1B by 2019. If not, then Kepler hasn't progressed and isn't all that good a corner OF compared to other corner OF.
Posted 14 August 2017 - 01:13 PM
The free agent market for 1B/3B/DH seems like it is better this offseason than in the past and likely better than after 2018. I'd like to see the Twins grab one of Santana, Hosmer, Moustakas, Morrison, JD Martinez, Duda and see how that affects this conversation.
I know, I know, we need pitching, but upgrade where you can when you can.
Posted 14 August 2017 - 01:41 PM
The corner players just don't get paid like they used to on the free agent market. Even assuming Mauer is worth rostering in 2019, this is how things tend to play out when a high priced player is facing a depressed market:
-Season ends and the team and the player have a conversation during the team's window where they have exclusive rights to re-sign the player.
-Team leaks that there have been talks to re-sign the player causing a rift in the pro-player/move-on-from-the-player fan bases.
-The talks show the player an extreme pay cut so the player decides it can't hurt to see what's on the free agent market.
-The team signs another free agent to fill the player's hole, perhaps even immediately, jumping at the chance to do so knowing that the public has already been made aware that they tried to re-sign the former player but his demands were too high compared to his production.
Posted 14 August 2017 - 01:45 PM
I was just thinking about this the other day. I think Kennys Vargas is the player that will dictate whether the Twins will even consider signing Mauer for 2019. I think he'll wind up playing with another team.
With Mauer I think it's the same as Perkins -- Twins or retire.
Also, I think it's Rooker, not Vargas who'll dictate if anyone does.
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Posted 14 August 2017 - 01:50 PM
As long as Mauer is okay with a decreased role as a part-time bench player who gets ~300 PA's, I don't see anything wrong with bringing him back.
Posted 16 August 2017 - 07:29 PM
I'm of the "a good defensive 1B is worth more to the rest of the infield than we give him credit for" school of thought. And realistically, very few teams (especially in mid-size markets) are going to ever have an above-average hitter AND defender at every position. So if a guy is still playing Gold Glove defense at age 35 or 36 and has any where near a 95 OPS+, I don't have a problem with playing him so that you can spend the money elsewhere.
I do think it will be important to find a way to lower him in the order, which in itself will soften the blow of being an average to below-average hitter, since it will knock off 50+ plate appearances.
I also have a wondering about Mauer. In the big scheme of things, we still know very little about the process of returning from concussions. A part of me hypothesizes that his decline may be a little slower than others -- is it possible that the incremental losses in production due to aging will be mitigated a bit by the incremental improvements of being further and further from a concussion? Of course, maybe it goes the other way and folks fall off the map even more quickly when they've had a concussion -- we just don't know.
But here's a question for the old-timers. I looked back at a similar situation 13 years ago, when the strike ended the season at about this time. The Twins had a 34-year-old local boy at 1B whose stats that year are actually quite similar to Mauer's stats as a 34-year-old so far this year. Hrbek retired rather than come back in 1995. So, were folks ragging on Hrbek as much as some are ragging on Mauer now, or is this once again a function of the $23MM contract?
Posted 16 August 2017 - 08:15 PM
I'm of the "a good defensive 1B is worth more to the rest of the infield than we give him credit for" school of thought. And realistically, very few teams (especially in mid-size markets) are going to ever have an above-average hitter AND defender at every position. So if a guy is still playing Gold Glove defense at age 35 or 36 and has any where near a 95 OPS+, I don't have a problem with playing him so that you can spend the money elsewhere.
I do think it will be important to find a way to lower him in the order, which in itself will soften the blow of being an average to below-average hitter, since it will knock off 50+ plate appearances.
I also have a wondering about Mauer. In the big scheme of things, we still know very little about the process of returning from concussions. A part of me hypothesizes that his decline may be a little slower than others -- is it possible that the incremental losses in production due to aging will be mitigated a bit by the incremental improvements of being further and further from a concussion? Of course, maybe it goes the other way and folks fall off the map even more quickly when they've had a concussion -- we just don't know.
But here's a question for the old-timers. I looked back at a similar situation 13 years ago, when the strike ended the season at about this time. The Twins had a 34-year-old local boy at 1B whose stats that year are actually quite similar to Mauer's stats as a 34-year-old so far this year. Hrbek retired rather than come back in 1995. So, were folks ragging on Hrbek as much as some are ragging on Mauer now, or is this once again a function of the $23MM contract?
Posted 17 August 2017 - 03:29 AM
The more I've thought about it, the more it makes sense to me that Joe Mauer will be on this team longer than just 2018. His options will be to continue playing on the cheap for some team or retiring. I think the compromise that he'll see is that if the Twins will have him, he gets to stay home and continue his career. The money probably doesn't really matter to him. I'm not sure what the Twins would pay him, but I'd guess they'd have to see some value in his lh bat and ability to play some 1B.
It would actually surprise me if Mauer took a multiyear contract in lieu of playing for the Twns...if the Twins want him. I think Mauer has no real records to chase. He likes baseball, probably, and he probably wants to be around his parents and kids both. What do you think happens with Mauer in 2019?
Posted 17 August 2017 - 04:41 AM
Edited by Sconnie, 17 August 2017 - 04:42 AM.
Posted 17 August 2017 - 04:57 AM
One difference is that 1994 was the first time since his rookie year that Hrbek wasn't a well above league average hitter.
This is now 4 straight years of being right around league average for Mauer.
That's a good thought. That he's largely plateaued also may lend creedence to my hypothesis about his decline potentially being more gradual than others.
Again, if he stays at league average hitter and plays outstanding defense, I can live with that. If that's the team's weakest link, that's a good team.
Posted 17 August 2017 - 05:35 AM
For the type of hitter Joe is, if he played middle infield or catcher he would have value. As a 1B/DH or for a bench role he would need to demonstrate power. I don't think for the limited number of bench spots available the Twins can afford to tie up a roster spot for this type of player. Most other teams are in the same boat.
Posted 17 August 2017 - 07:35 AM
For the type of hitter Joe is, if he played middle infield or catcher he would have value. As a 1B/DH or for a bench role he would need to demonstrate power. I don't think for the limited number of bench spots available the Twins can afford to tie up a roster spot for this type of player. Most other teams are in the same boat.
I don't know. Why do we have to think of each position this way? I think the Twins can make up for the below-average power at 1B at other positions. In 2018, I could see the Twins having a really balanced lineup in terms of power (kind of like how the Astros have 11 players with 10+ hrs and only 1 player with more than 20). It doesn't seem crazy to me to think that Sano, Dozier (if around), Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Escobar (if around), Polanco, Castro, Mauer, Gordon, Rooker, 2017 DH/OF FA signing all have the potential to hit 10+ home runs in a season, with some (of course) hitting many more.
Of course, not all of those players would be on the team, but I can see many ways that the Twins could have double-digit players hitting double-digit home runs by 2018. Then, "below average power" at 1B doesn't much. They also need OBP and Mauer gets on base better than anyone (including Grossman - and is a better fit than Grossman.
Plus, Mauer is still one of the top 5 hitters on this team. It's of course hard to predict what the bench would look like in 2018, but I have a hard time thinking that Mauer playing 80-100 games between 1B and DH wouldn't help the team.
Edited by olivia11, 17 August 2017 - 07:36 AM.
Posted 17 August 2017 - 07:47 AM
So long Joe - we cannot afford him after 2018. He has no big numbers to pursue. He will have 2000 hits and there is no way he can get to any stat of consequence beyond that. As we all know his HR and RBI stats are not worthy of 1B/DH and have no place in game history. The longer he plays the more his batting average dips and it would be good if it stayed above .300 - I remember Mickey Mantle's anguish when he fell below .300 "My biggest regret was letting my lifetime average drop below .300," Mickey Mantle once said. He added, "it made me want to cry."
I know modern stat heads do not value BA like many of us old timers and the uninformed, but it is a nice figure that does have value. Joe's value has always been OBP and he is currently number 102 on the all time career list with .390 but that will go down with each season since his OBP has been in the .360s since 2013 so he is not going for a career position there - he is instead going down the list.
https://www.baseball...rc_career.shtml
His OPS is below a star status and our memory of his HOF catching career is fading. I do not hear about his clubhouse presence so he is not going to be our Torii Hunter.
His career WAR is 275 tied with Norm Cash and Babe Adams. He can add to this, but even at 56 he is tied with Johnny Damon, George Uhle and Robin Venture. All of these are nice players, not superstars or HOF caliber which means that they are not worth Mauer's contract. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml
One question I cannot answer is how far a team can go in reducing the amount of a contract when they resign a player.
Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:02 AM
--Lou Brown
Posted 17 August 2017 - 01:12 PM
"But having someone with that kind of production in CF, (or SS in the case of other teams), meant you could have a "lesser" offensive player at another position"
I don't agree with this line of thinking at all. If you gain at one position, but give it back at another, you're no better than the other team. You're back to average.
The object is to be better than the other teams.
Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.
Posted 17 August 2017 - 02:41 PM
"But having someone with that kind of production in CF, (or SS in the case of other teams), meant you could have a "lesser" offensive player at another position"
I don't agree with this line of thinking at all. If you gain at one position, but give it back at another, you're no better than the other team. You're back to average.
The object is to be better than the other teams.
Posted 17 August 2017 - 08:59 PM
"But having someone with that kind of production in CF, (or SS in the case of other teams), meant you could have a "lesser" offensive player at another position"
I don't agree with this line of thinking at all. If you gain at one position, but give it back at another, you're no better than the other team. You're back to average.
The object is to be better than the other teams.
--Lou Brown
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