Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Matt Belisle's 2017 Season

  • Please log in to reply
52 replies to this topic

#21 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    Minnesota Twins Whine Line Host

  • Members
  • 9,408 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 11 August 2017 - 01:20 PM

 

Seth if we're going to throw out the appearances where a reliever gets knocked around then literally every reliever in baseball is awesome.

 

Yep. It's a flawed way of thinking for sure... If I took away that +3 on holes 6, 10, 14, and 16, I'd be a professional golfer! 

  • jun and wsnydes like this

#22 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 15,902 posts

Posted 11 August 2017 - 01:26 PM

 

Seth if we're going to throw out the appearances where a reliever gets knocked around then literally every reliever in baseball is awesome.

 

I think I noted that twice in the original post.

  • Platoon likes this

#23 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Joe's Shades™

  • Members
  • 2,458 posts

Posted 11 August 2017 - 01:59 PM

It would be interesting to look at the matchups he faced during those bad outings. There could be a clear indicator there of when not to use him other than a guess that he is tired.


#24 Dman

Dman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,062 posts

Posted 11 August 2017 - 02:23 PM

 

Yep. It's a flawed way of thinking for sure... If I took away that +3 on holes 6, 10, 14, and 16, I'd be a professional golfer! 

 

Really all statistics are flawed.Numbers can only tell us so much.We can measure what happened and establish trends but we can never predict exactly what will happen in the future in baseball.

Personally I found the way Seth manipulated the stats helpful.Belisle has gotten a bit of a bad rap after pitching poorly after being overused.Taking out the few awful games he has had shows us he has been more consistent than most are giving him credit for.While his averages don’t look great more often than not he has been successful in his role.

 

I think sometimes stats can take us down the wrong road.Look at run differential.Based on that you would think the Twins should be behind KC and Detroit and yet they are ahead of both teams.So while run differential might be able to tell us the depth of talent a team has it can’t tell us what team might win a particular series very well at all.

 

While it is flawed to take Seth’s comparison to other pitchers without taking out their bad games,I don’t think it is flawed at all in showing us just how consistently good Belisle has been in the majority of games he has played.

  • DJSim22 and SwainZag like this

#25 AlwaysinModeration

AlwaysinModeration

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,787 posts

Posted 11 August 2017 - 02:42 PM

Seth if we're going to throw out the appearances where a reliever gets knocked around then literally every reliever in baseball is awesome.


Well, if we took every reliever and threw out their worst four outings, it would be interesting to compare. I think Belisle would come out looking pretty good.

Another way to do it: throw out the best and worst four outings. That would get us closer to his median, expected outing, I suppose. You could do that with all relievers and then compare them, and you might get something worth looking at.

I'm not going to do it, though.

#26 amjgt

amjgt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,285 posts

Posted 11 August 2017 - 05:36 PM

10% of his outing are complete crap.
90% of his outings are good to very good.

If people can't see that as valuable information in assessing a pitcher, then I don't know what to tell them
  • Seth Stohs, DJSim22 and DocBauer like this

#27 DJSim22

DJSim22

    Charlestown

  • Members
  • 547 posts

Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:04 PM

 

So, overall this year, Matt Belisle has pitched 45.2 innings in 47 games. He's got a 4.34 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

 

Now, he's had four HORRIBLE games:

 

  1. April 26 - 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB
  2. May 7 - 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB
  3. May 29 - 0.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB
  4. June 11 - 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB

 

So, we all know that you can't just pick and choose which games to count in numbers, but just for fun, I thought I'd do it anyway.

 

So, in the 43 games that Belisle has pitched in (not counting the 4 above), he has thrown 43.2 innings. He has a 0.82 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP! That's pretty crazy!

 

 

Those four games... 2 IP, 81.00 ERA, 8.50 WHIP.  Also, pretty crazy!

 

He hasn't given up an earned run since June 26 (16 outings), and a run period since June 27 (14 outings). An inherited runner hasn't scored off of him since July 1st. Only 4 of 23  (17%) of inherited runners have scored on him all season.

 

In other words, he's been great this year... except for those four games... (and just to repeat, I'm not saying we can just eliminate the bad stuff, but perspective is good too)

 

I've been trying to argue this for over a month.Alas, you did a much better job of it.If anything it show consistency.

 


#28 snepp

snepp

    Curve Hanger

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,068 posts
  • LocationSioux Falls

Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:39 PM

 

Relief pitchers are walking small sample sizes. 

 

They don't get enough innings to make up for anything horrific. 

 

John Smoltz, 2002, gives up 8 earned runs in his second relief appearance of the year in 2/3rd of an inning. It takes him until the end of July to lower his ERA below 4 despite giving up a mid-.500 OPS during that time.

  • Riverbrian, SwainZag and DocBauer like this

Member VP of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club


#29 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,115 posts

Posted 11 August 2017 - 11:50 PM

Not going to jump in to the numbers directly, but what I find interesting is that the HORRIBLE numbers/performances that Seth brought up occurred in April, May x 2, and early June. All in the first half of the season, and 3 in the first 2 months of the season.

"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

 

--Lou Brown


#30 Darius

Darius

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,198 posts

Posted 12 August 2017 - 03:46 AM

I'd imagine you could find similar trends with any pitcher with bad numbers (90% of their innings are great, skewed by a handful of bad ones).

#31 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 12,926 posts

Posted 12 August 2017 - 06:34 AM

I think I noted that twice in the original post.

I don't think you noted that specifically, no. The point of your lost seems to be that the exercise might have some meaning for Belisle, no?

I would guess Belisle has one of the bigger spreads, but other relievers will benefit massively too. Just picking a name randomly from the ERA list near Belisle, Tyler Clippard's ERA improves from 4.27 to 1.87 when you drop his 4 worst games. And he was dumped by the Yankees to neutralize salary in the Frazier/Robertson deal...

Joaquin Benoit, 4.40 to 1.90.

Edited by spycake, 12 August 2017 - 06:39 AM.


#32 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 15,902 posts

Posted 12 August 2017 - 09:41 AM

 

I don't think you noted that specifically, no. The point of your lost seems to be that the exercise might have some meaning for Belisle, no?

I would guess Belisle has one of the bigger spreads, but other relievers will benefit massively too. Just picking a name randomly from the ERA list near Belisle, Tyler Clippard's ERA improves from 4.27 to 1.87 when you drop his 4 worst games. And he was dumped by the Yankees to neutralize salary in the Frazier/Robertson deal...

Joaquin Benoit, 4.40 to 1.90.

 

My main point... he's been good 43 out of 47 times (or at least limited it to one or less runs)... he's been pretty good MOST of the time, and so many chose to dwell on what he did in a very bad stretch that had four really, really, really bad games.

  • DJSim22 and Platoon like this

#33 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 19,872 posts

Posted 12 August 2017 - 10:29 AM

 

I don't think you noted that specifically, no. The point of your lost seems to be that the exercise might have some meaning for Belisle, no?

I would guess Belisle has one of the bigger spreads, but other relievers will benefit massively too. Just picking a name randomly from the ERA list near Belisle, Tyler Clippard's ERA improves from 4.27 to 1.87 when you drop his 4 worst games. And he was dumped by the Yankees to neutralize salary in the Frazier/Robertson deal...

Joaquin Benoit, 4.40 to 1.90.

I agree that using these kind of filters can be misleading but Belisle hasn't posted an ERA close to 2.00 (a good reliever ERA) if you remove the worst 8% of his starts, he has posted an ERA under 1.00 (an outstanding reliever ERA). That's above and beyond what you will see from most "mediocre" relievers.

 

And games are singular entities. That means if you remove the worst 8% of his games where he either lost or helped lose the game for the team - he's giving up roughly one run per nine appearances in the rest of his games.

 

I'll take four bad appearances if the other 43 look like that.

  • DJSim22 and SwainZag like this

#34 Craig Arko

Craig Arko

    Mathematically inclined primate

  • Members
  • 8,181 posts
  • LocationThe Congo Basin

Posted 12 August 2017 - 10:34 AM

ERA represents a mean value. Look at the median value instead.

  • Brock Beauchamp, Mike Sixel and spinowner like this

Mathematics knows no races or geographic boundaries;
for mathematics, the cultural world is one country. - David Hilbert


#35 lecroy24fan

lecroy24fan

    Member

  • Members
  • 158 posts

Posted 12 August 2017 - 07:48 PM

Nice jinx Seth

  • Carole Keller, Seth Stohs and twinssporto like this

#36 jun

jun

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 550 posts

Posted 12 August 2017 - 08:07 PM

Well one more bad game to the list now.
0.1 inning 2 earned runs allowed a blown save
He has no closer stuff and he cannot be overused.

#37 USAFChief

USAFChief

    Anyone got a smoke?

  • Twins Mods
  • 20,789 posts
  • LocationTucson

Posted 12 August 2017 - 08:14 PM

He shouldn't have been sent out for the 9th today. It was obvious in the 8th he had nothing.
  • jun and twinssporto like this

I am not the paranoid you're looking for.


#38 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,373 posts

Posted 12 August 2017 - 08:21 PM

Is this one that doesn't count, or does it?
  • Sconnie likes this

#39 rghrbek

rghrbek

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 530 posts

Posted 12 August 2017 - 08:26 PM

Was it me or was his velo way down tonight?


#40 Willihammer

Willihammer

    Nostrombolimus

  • Members
  • 7,252 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 12 August 2017 - 08:37 PM

 

Is this one that doesn't count, or does it?

Depends. How'd he do?

  • Sconnie likes this

Well, there's that.

-Dark Star, RIP