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Matt Belisle's 2017 Season

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 09:42 AM

So, overall this year, Matt Belisle has pitched 45.2 innings in 47 games. He's got a 4.34 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

 

Now, he's had four HORRIBLE games:

 

  1. April 26 - 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB
  2. May 7 - 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB
  3. May 29 - 0.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB
  4. June 11 - 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB

 

So, we all know that you can't just pick and choose which games to count in numbers, but just for fun, I thought I'd do it anyway.

 

So, in the 43 games that Belisle has pitched in (not counting the 4 above), he has thrown 43.2 innings. He has a 0.82 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP! That's pretty crazy!

 

 

Those four games... 2 IP, 81.00 ERA, 8.50 WHIP.  Also, pretty crazy!

 

He hasn't given up an earned run since June 26 (16 outings), and a run period since June 27 (14 outings). An inherited runner hasn't scored off of him since July 1st. Only 4 of 23  (17%) of inherited runners have scored on him all season.

 

In other words, he's been great this year... except for those four games... (and just to repeat, I'm not saying we can just eliminate the bad stuff, but perspective is good too)

 

 

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#2 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 09:46 AM

He's been sneaky good for 1.5 months... Glad to see him turn things around after a very rough start to the season. 

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#3 Cory Engelhardt

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 09:53 AM

Love this, thanks for sharing!


#4 Tom Froemming

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:16 AM

I stumbled across this yesterday ...

 

Matt Belisle 2017

0 days rest: 8.22 ERA

1 day rest: 7.63 ERA

2+ days rest: 0.79 ERA

 

I think he'll continue to be very reliable as long as Molitor doesn't burn him out. 

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#5 Brandon Warne

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:16 AM

He's been great since San Francisco. He also smiles like Gary Busey.

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#6 Willihammer

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:35 AM

 

I stumbled across this yesterday ...

 

Matt Belisle 2017

0 days rest: 8.22 ERA

1 day rest: 7.63 ERA

2+ days rest: 0.79 ERA

 

I think he'll continue to be very reliable as long as Molitor doesn't burn him out. 

That's exactly why he needs another couple arms he can trust IMO. Can't just be the Rogers-Belisle show when they inevitably hit a stretch of close games.

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Well, there's that.

-Dark Star, RIP


#7 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:38 AM

 

That's exactly why he needs another couple arms he can trust IMO. Can't just be the Rogers-Belisle show when they inevitably hit a stretch of close games.

 

Agreed. They should probably still be on the lookout for another rental RP arm. However, Hildenberger is looking promising for a higher leverage role. 


#8 Seth Stohs

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:53 AM

 

I stumbled across this yesterday ...

 

Matt Belisle 2017

0 days rest: 8.22 ERA

1 day rest: 7.63 ERA

2+ days rest: 0.79 ERA

 

I think he'll continue to be very reliable as long as Molitor doesn't burn him out. 

 

 

April 26 - 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB (1 day rest)
May 7 - 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB (1 day rest)
May 29 - 0.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB (0 days rest)
June 11 - 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB (0 days rest)

 

So again, those 0 days rest and 1 days rest prove to be pretty meaningless because they're so drastically affected by 2 outings. He has pitched in 8 games on 0 days rest, and 18 games on 1 day rest... Those numbers can be majorly effected by one or two bad outings. 

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#9 Willihammer

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:58 AM

Seth if we're going to throw out the appearances where a reliever gets knocked around then literally every reliever in baseball is awesome.

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Well, there's that.

-Dark Star, RIP


#10 Willihammer

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:58 AM

He's 37, its not a stretch to think he'd perform significantly worse, on average, without adequate rest.

Well, there's that.

-Dark Star, RIP


#11 wsnydes

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 10:59 AM

 

Seth if we're going to throw out the appearances where a reliever gets knocked around then literally every reliever in baseball is awesome.

So you're saying it IS easy to find relievers!  :)

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#12 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 11:05 AM

This is why I don't like mushing season stats together and coming up with averages for pitchers all that much. Sure, there is value there, but it misses a really important thing, imo.

 

Games are discrete events. I'll take the relief pitcher that gives up 10 runs in one game, and zero for the next 4, over the guy that gives up 2 runs in three games, and 1 run in the next two games (almost) any day of the year. I am NOT suggesting throwing out the bad games, but I think stats like what 538 did make more sense.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 11 August 2017 - 11:05 AM.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#13 Tom Froemming

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 11:18 AM

 

April 26 - 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB (1 day rest)
May 7 - 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB (1 day rest)
May 29 - 0.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB (0 days rest)
June 11 - 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB (0 days rest)

 

So again, those 0 days rest and 1 days rest prove to be pretty meaningless because they're so drastically affected by 2 outings. He has pitched in 8 games on 0 days rest, and 18 games on 1 day rest... Those numbers can be majorly effected by one or two bad outings. 

I dunno, kinda seems like if anything you're improving the argument against using him on short rest. He's only had a few really bad outings ... but they've all come on short rest. Anyway, it seems like a pretty good idea in general to avoid running a 37-year-old out there on back-to-back nights, regardless of what the numbers say. 

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#14 bizaff

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 11:28 AM

 

This is why I don't like mushing season stats together and coming up with averages for pitchers all that much. Sure, there is value there, but it misses a really important thing, imo.

 

Games are discrete events. I'll take the relief pitcher that gives up 10 runs in one game, and zero for the next 4, over the guy that gives up 2 runs in three games, and 1 run in the next two games (almost) any day of the year. I am NOT suggesting throwing out the bad games, but I think stats like what 538 did make more sense.

 

Agreed - I like the shutdown/meltdown statistics I've seen before.

 

Anyone watch his bad outings close enough to see if there was something specific?It was over a spread of time so I'm guessing a single injury is unlikely..

Does anyone remember any specific problems he had in


#15 Dman

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 11:31 AM

 

I stumbled across this yesterday ...

 

Matt Belisle 2017

0 days rest: 8.22 ERA

1 day rest: 7.63 ERA

2+ days rest: 0.79 ERA

 

I think he'll continue to be very reliable as long as Molitor doesn't burn him out. 

 

Those stats jive with my memory.  I think he was over used early in the season.  I don't think that is the way Washington used him.  I think given proper usage he will perform better.  

 

Glad to see him turn things around.  Hope he keeps it up.


#16 Tom Froemming

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 11:37 AM

Also, Belisle had a fifth bad outing that was basically masked by an error. June 27 at Boston he gave up a three-run homer, but all the runs were unearned. Sure, it's tough luck that his defense let him down, but he still served one up.

 

Surprise, surprise that outing was also on zero days rest. So in 7.2 innings pitched on no rest, he's given up 10 runs (seven earned), has a 1.96 WHIP and opponents have hit .333/.405/.606 off him (1.011 OPS).

 

I'm not trying to dump on the guy or belittle his success, I'm just saying it's clearly a bad idea to have him pitch back-to-back days.

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#17 ChiTownTwinsFan

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 11:53 AM

April 26 - 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB (1 day rest)
May 7 - 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB (1 day rest)
May 29 - 0.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB (0 days rest)
June 11 - 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB (0 days rest)

So again, those 0 days rest and 1 days rest prove to be pretty meaningless because they're so drastically affected by 2 outings. He has pitched in 8 games on 0 days rest, and 18 games on 1 day rest... Those numbers can be majorly effected by one or two bad outings.


I was going to ask what you think has changed or what Belisle might be doing differently that he seems to have 'righted the ship,' then saw what Tom wrote and thought, 'Okay that seems plausible,' then came to your post so now I'm asking ... is there something that's different or is he just finding his stride here?

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#18 Riverbrian

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 12:17 PM

Relief pitchers are walking small sample sizes. 

 

They don't get enough innings to make up for anything horrific. 

 

 

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#19 spinowner

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 01:06 PM

Cherry picking 4 games: interesting but of questionable validity

Separating based on rest: interesting and of higher validity

What would be even more interesting would be to see how the stats break down based on rest for MLB as a whole and for other specific pitchers.

eiπ + 1 = 0


#20 ChiTownTwinsFan

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Posted 11 August 2017 - 01:15 PM

Cherry picking 4 games: interesting but of questionable validity
Separating based on rest: interesting and of higher validity
What would be even more interesting would be to see how the stats break down based on rest for MLB as a whole and for other specific pitchers.


Knowing you, that would be a most excellent project for you!

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