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Article: Can The Twins Win With Dozier And Mauer?

brian dozier joe mauer
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#101 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 01:42 PM

 

Very interesting post! And I wonder sometimes about Dozier's numbers in regard to RISP. Are his low numbers a result of SSS hitting leadoff with poor hitters in front of him? Or is he truly bad in this scenario? Is don't have numbers either way, but wondering.

Eh, I still believe it's an aberration. Dozier has an OPS of .820 with RISP this season. He has an OPS of .660 with men on base. So is he only good with men on second or third base but terrible if there's a runner standing on first? I think we can all agree that makes no sense whatsoever.

 

It's not unusual for these numbers to move up and down season over season. Dozier's RISP OPS in 2016 was .030 lower than his regular OPS. In 2015, his RISP OPS was .020 higher than his regular OPS.

 

There's a weird narrative on this board that constantly tries to tell us Dozier is terrible in RISP situations but here are his career numbers:

 

Career: .767 OPS

RISP: .769 OPS

 

Um. So yeah.

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#102 Ryan Atkins

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 02:12 PM

 

He's 9th in WAR out of 11 AL 2nd baseman this year.  Your 2014-2017 sample size uses all counting stats, in which he's one of only 4 players to play 500 games (he's at 569).  

 

You don't extend someone because of past performance, you extend based on the future, and he'll be entering his age 32 season when his contract is up

 

My sample shows consistency and reliability. Yours shows a 4 month snapshot which is already wrong after less than 3 days. Dozier is now 7th in WAR (not 9th) for AL 2B. Ahead of such scrubs as Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis. League-wide, if you're only interested in WAR, Dozier is ahead of the likes of Adam Jones, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew Benintendi, Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas, Yasiel Puig, and Albert Pujols.

 

Dozier (31 next May) will cost $9m next year. A bargain. Pedroia (34) will cost $16m and Kipnis (30) will cost $13.6m.


#103 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 02:41 PM

Eh, I still believe it's an aberration. Dozier has an OPS of .820 with RISP this season. He has an OPS of .660 with men on base. So is he only good with men on second or third base but terrible if there's a runner standing on first? I think we can all agree that makes no sense whatsoever.

It's not unusual for these numbers to move up and down season over season. Dozier's RISP OPS in 2016 was .030 lower than his regular OPS. In 2015, his RISP OPS was .020 higher than his regular OPS.

There's a weird narrative on this board that constantly tries to tell us Dozier is terrible in RISP situations but here are his career numbers:

Career: .767 OPS
RISP: .769 OPS

Um. So yeah.


No, not a weird narrative on the board. One poster who doesn't like Dozier.
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#104 kellyvance

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 04:41 PM

 

By any chance were adult beverages involved in the production of this suite of posts? :)

Naw, just trying to lighten the mood

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#105 kellyvance

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 04:54 PM

"Dozier has been his usual self: one of the game's better power-hitting middle infielders, and a fine defender, but not an upper-echelon player."

 

Did I hear you correctly?

 

Dozier has averaged over 20 HRs for the past 4 years as a middle infielder and hit 42 last year and he is not an upper echelon player?  Who else hit 42 HRs last year? Since when does being in the top 5 or so HR hitters out of 650 players make you not upper echelon? 

 

Dozier can't hit with men on base? Really?  Did it ever occur to you that pitchers are extra careful pitching to Doz when men are on base?  And his at bats when hitting 3rd or 4th is too small a sample size to draw conclusions.Typecasting him as a leadoff hitter is silly. He is a power hitter, guys. And it is dumb to bat your best HR hitter leadoff. Rickey Henderson hit a lot of lead off homers, but he also stole 100 bases. Of course Rickey hit leadoff. Dozier should hit 3rd ahead of Sano and after Mauer.

 

As for can the Twins win with these guys.... that premise is insulting. Mauer's skills are eroding, but he is still a top clutch hitter. 

 

Doze and Mauer are NOT the problems on this team. 

 

 

Edited by kellyvance, 10 August 2017 - 04:56 PM.

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#106 Thrylos

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 04:58 PM

 

As you can see Dozier is effectively an average World Series winning 2B and has a better OPS than 8 of the 15 World Series winning 2B over the past 15 years.

 

So, tell us about Lombardozzi...

Who the second basemen were in World Series winners means less than who their first 3 starting pitchers, their last 3 bullpen pitchers, and hitters 3-6 were.

 

Irrelevant. 

 

BTW, WAR, wRC+, wOBA put Dozier as the 10th-13th best second baseman in the league.This is right at the middle quadrant.

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