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Article: Rule 5 Addition Discussion

stephen gonsalves lewin diaz zack littell john curtiss jake reed
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#41 jorgenswest

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:17 AM

I don't think there will be any tough decisions. The Twins have plenty of space to clear on the 40. They won't lose anyone with upside.
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#42 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:32 AM

 

I don't think there will be any tough decisions. The Twins have plenty of space to clear on the 40. They won't lose anyone with upside.

 

This is rational and I agree 100%. But we've been here long enough to know there will be threads created over the winter raising pitchforks for losing (insert player name here) to the Rule 5 draft. 

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#43 twinssouth

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:39 AM

I'll take a shot at this. I see as many as 9 taken off the 40 man (seems we have a lot of guys on DL with highly questionable futures, I.e. Hughes, Perkins and guys that aren't contributing). My givens are: Gonsalves Littrell Curtiss Reed Thorpe On the fence with Bard and Stewart. I'd call up Bard and see what he can do and then decide. As for Stewart, oh boy. Look at his last start; he goes 6 innings on 93 pitches but 60% were strikes but he still manages to walk 4 batters. Yet, he didn't get bombed, as he gave up 7 hits but still managed 6 SO's and ultimately got the win. The kid must have some Irish in him because he does seem lucky when he pitches. So as one fellow Irishman to another, I guess I'd keep him. The rest, tough calls , good players but I'd leave spots open for trades and FA's. As for Burdi, I see his situation play out like Z Jones (another fireballer) where Brewers took him and returned him to the Twins this past Spring. As always, great job Seth.

#44 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:42 AM

Great lists Seth. Thanks for this thread.

 

I would absolutely leave Diaz unprotected and add Thorpe to the 1st tier. He will only be 22 next year. Gotta believe he would get taken. I suspect he would do better for a team in the mop up roll than Haley did for us this year.

 

I, too, would let the five pending FA that spycake identified walk (Belisle, Colon, Gee, Perkins, Santiago).

I will also have a breakdown if they tender a contract to Gimenez. With Garver posting an OPS of >.850 in AAA they need to bring him up.

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#45 Steve Lein

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:52 AM

Guys I would add (in no particular order):

 

1. Gonsalves
2. Rodriguez
3. Littell
4. Reed
5. Curtiss
6. Thorpe
7. Stewart

 

Not sure all of them will be, but I suspect the Twins are gonna lose a guy or two any way it shakes out.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#46 Rosterman

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:04 AM

Good list. I don't really see anyone holding down a major league job in a lot of the players you mentioned (like Thorpe or Kohl Stewart).

 

Mason already went thru waivers and could've been claimed by any team with a 40-man spot. But somehow he made in thru. Go figure?

 

If anything, I would use the current open spots to look at players on the fringe, like Baxendale, Hurlbut, Slegers and what they do in their brief looksees would determine if they stay or go. Are they also six year minor league free agents that might jsts walk anyways?

 

The Twins have to be really careful adding folks like Diaz, too far away...yet can they be lost in the minor league portion of the draft?

 

Looking at this season, we already have Vielma, Romero, Jorge taking up space and not really ready for the majors, and we can argue if they will be major league ready before any of the added candidates from this off-season.

 

The Twins could have up to 14 roster spots available between now and the beginning of spring training, if they really wanted to be hard-lined. 

 

And the newcomers will get some consideration, although what is the potential for any of them staying on a major league roster (unless a Wild Card like the Padres come into play and grab three rokkies to keep on the roster and in their system). That is where you have to think long and hard about Littell and Moya, for example.

 

But you realize how few candidates the Twins have for 40-man spots in the offensive part of the roster. Very few.

 

And looks like we may be saying goodbye to high draft picks Levi Michael and Travis Harrison.

 

And, hey, weren't we talking that our bullpen, by now, would be people like Reed, Burdi, Cederoth, Bard, Zach Jones, Chargois, Melotakis. As early as this season? How the world of prospects can change........

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#47 Steve Lein

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:11 AM

 

The Twins have to be really careful adding folks like Diaz, too far away...yet can they be lost in the minor league portion of the draft?

 

Check out the link in my post above about Kepler. This is explained in depth there.

 

If Diaz isn't on the 40-man he assuredly will be on the Triple-A reserve roster, meaning he can't be selected in minor league phase.

 

Lots of A-ball top prospects are on the Triple-A reserve roster for this reason (which is a 38-man list). Also, just as an FYI, the reserve rosters are not published to the public.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#48 Sconnie

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:37 AM

Burdi is a tough one. Could he be added and then put on the 60 day DL?
Also is it possible that the Braves rejected him in part thinking he might be a potential rule 5 pickup thereby essentially adding another player to the trade? A very long shot I know.

60 day DL is only in season. So you would lose his spot all off season. He's a 2019 guy at best, I'd try to sneak him through the rule 5 draft.
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#49 Sconnie

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:41 AM

For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now.

5 pending FA:
Belisle
Colon
Gee
Perkins
Santiago

4 possible nontenders in arbitration:
Gibson
Pressly
Gimenez
Grossman

9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be):
Boshers
Busenitz
Chargois
Hildenberger
O'Rourke
Randy Rosario
Turley
Palka
Vargas

And of course Hughes as a big wild card.

Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.

do you really think it's possible Pohlad eats 26 mil for Hughes?

I wouldn't have considered it, except they took on the dead contract for Garcia.

Man that's an expensive oopsie/extension

#50 bluechipper

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:48 AM

Kohl Stewart should be a given. He's got a 2.99 career ERA, and even in his bad current year, he's got a 3.86 ERA in AA as a 22 year old. With his stuff and previous prospect status, he would almost surely get taken.

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#51 spycake

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:08 AM

If there is a roster crunch, I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep keeping Burdi unprotected. 2 major injuries and a couple minor ones before he even reaches the majors. Just don't see him as much of a long term asset.


Agreed, although look at it this way: how would you feel if the Twins grabbed a Burdi from someone else in Rule 5? But I agree with the others too, that there shouldn't be much of a meaningful crunch.

#52 drjim

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:17 AM

Agreed, although look at it this way: how would you feel if the Twins grabbed a Burdi from someone else in Rule 5? But I agree with the others too, that there shouldn't be much of a meaningful crunch.


My opinion of reliever prospects has shifted quite a bit.

I'd be fine with the flyer, like I am with any rule 5 guy, but would have minimal expectation with a guy with that injury history.
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#53 Taildragger8791

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:46 AM

 

do you really think it's possible Pohlad eats 26 mil for Hughes?

I wouldn't have considered it, except they took on the dead contract for Garcia.

Man that's an expensive oopsie/extension

 

He's eating that money either way. The only decision now is whether he wants to further sandbag his team with an ineffective player eating up a roster spot, and add on the potential expense of losing a future cheap young player.

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#54 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:54 AM

Always fun to speculate but as in years' past, the Twins scrap pile is not where good teams go to become more competitive.

 

We may love our guys, but other teams don't.

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#55 Sconnie

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 11:56 AM

 

He's eating that money either way. The only decision now is whether he wants to further sandbag his team with an ineffective player eating up a roster spot, and add on the potential expense of losing a future cheap young player.

agreed, but I have doubts that Pohlad could be convinced of that argument. Cutting him means there's no chance of recuperating any of that value. Maybe the odds are low, but not impossible


#56 jun

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:14 PM

I think Dereck Rodriguez, Kohl Stewart, Mason Melotakis will not be added to the 40-man roster, David Hurlbut though should be added due to his performance in AAA.

#57 Thrylos

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:22 PM

This is about 3.5 months premature :)  Lots of transactions until then and I suspect that some of the names in the list will not be with the Twins. 

 

BA called Gabriel Moya "arguably the most dominant reliever in the minors".To me he is automatic. Reed is kinda of a borderline guy.I'd put him behind Burdi and Bard at this point.And behind Curtiss and Moya. The previous administration loved him, but the decision makers will be different by then.

Have to factor the upcoming changes in the FO, as well. That's why I am thinking that it is way too early to even think about this.

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#58 Sconnie

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:29 PM

 

This is about 3.5 months premature :)  Lots of transactions until then and I suspect that some of the names in the list will not be with the Twins. 

 

BA called Gabriel Moya "arguably the most dominant reliever in the minors".To me he is automatic. Reed is kinda of a borderline guy.I'd put him behind Burdi and Bard at this point.And behind Curtiss and Moya. The previous administration loved him, but the decision makers will be different by then.

Have to factor the upcoming changes in the FO, as well. That's why I am thinking that it is way too early to even think about this.

predicting more of the old regime leaving?


#59 zenser

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:32 PM

Burdi was lights out before his injury and was probably nearing a promotion.I think he gets added.I know it would be risky exposing him and I would hate to lose him for nothing.

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#60 snap4birds

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:51 PM

 

agreed, but I have doubts that Pohlad could be convinced of that argument. Cutting him means there's no chance of recuperating any of that value. Maybe the odds are low, but not impossible

Wasn't there a story confirming that they have insurance on Hughes?Wouldn't Pohlad be saving money if he retired due to injury?I'd kind of think this is the most likely scenario at this point.....




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