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Article: Rule 5 Addition Discussion

stephen gonsalves lewin diaz zack littell john curtiss jake reed
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#21 brvama

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:34 AM

Burdi is a tough one. Could he be added and then put on the 60 day DL?
Also is it possible that the Braves rejected him in part thinking he might be a potential rule 5 pickup thereby essentially adding another player to the trade? A very long shot I know.

#22 olivia11

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:42 AM

I count 10 names that very likely won't be on the 40 man by November: Belisle, Colon, Gee, Perkins, Santiago, Gimenez, Gibson, O'Rourke, Recker, Vargas 

 

Bubble candidates to go off 40 man:

-Buddy Boshers (he's pitched really well but depends on where he's at in the LHRP depth chart; I could see FA wanting to protect Moya over keeping Boshers)

-Engelb Vielma (he hasn't hit at all in AAA and slipped out of MLB's top 30 prospects; Adrianza fits the roll of glove-first utility IF and these guys aren't hard to get off waivers; but there isn't much IF depth on the 40 man)

-Nik Turley (I think we'll see him again this season in the bullpen; has the potential to take over Boshers' spot; I still think he's got potential but if he doesn't perform well this given enough of an opportunity in relief, he's probably gone)

-Phil Hughes (I feel like there's a chance that Hughes and the Twins come to some sort of deal where Hughes retires; not sure how this works)

-(also, I think Vargas will be taken off because he'll be out of options next season and he's had plenty of opportunities and not impressed much; FO has proven they'll make those moves)

 

So I think up to 13 spots could open up (I think one of Turley or Boshers will stay).  Of course this doesn't mean that all 13 could be filled by Rule 5 eligible guys. Twins would need to add another Catcher, clear some things up in the OF by adding a RH bat and maybe subtracting  LH bat (Grossman, Palka, Granite) via trade, and then add a starting pitcher and a reliever. But we don't know when those moves might happen. 

 

With estimating 10 open spots, I would add: Gonsalves, Littell, Reed, Curtiss, Thorpe, Diaz, Stewart, Slegers, Moya, Rodriguez


#23 spycake

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:42 AM

It would be nice to see Slegers brought up in late August or September to see what he can do.


Problem is, if you bring him up, you can't take him off the 40-man without losing him. It is a lot easier to waiver claim a guy rather than Rule 5 him.
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#24 drjim

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:45 AM

 

I agree with many others in this thread: Diaz should not be protected. He's the 16th best 20yo-or-younger hitter in the Midwest League right now.

 

But I think Thorpe is a given.

 

I'd also agree on Diaz. Digging more into him, just don't see a guy with his performance/profile in Low A getting picked.

 

I think the Twins will be able to fit everyone who needs it and also add a few more players this offseason. Digging through the list, I'm not especially concerned anymore.

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#25 drjim

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:47 AM

 

Problem is, if you bring him up, you can't take him off the 40-man without losing him. It is a lot easier to waiver claim a guy rather than Rule 5 him.

 

Plus, if they had any notion that he could be an effective starter, I suspect he'd have been up by now. He may get a token call up later, but I doubt he factors much in any long term plans.

Papers...business papers.

#26 Loosey

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:48 AM

I don't see why Mason Melotakis is on the 2nd tier.  They already DFA'd him a month ago and he was not picked up for essentially nothing to go to another teams minor league org.  I think if left unprotected its a relatively safe bet he would not be picked and stashed on a MLB roster for season.  

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#27 Loosey

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:50 AM

 

For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now.

5 pending FA:
Belisle
Colon
Gee
Perkins
Santiago

4 possible nontenders in arbitration:
Gibson
Pressly
Gimenez
Grossman

9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be):
Boshers
Busenitz
Chargois
Hildenberger
O'Rourke
Randy Rosario
Turley
Palka
Vargas

And of course Hughes as a big wild card.

Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.

I could see all 5 pending Free Agents walk.  And that is a good thing.

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#28 spycake

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:51 AM

Burdi - If taken he has to spend 90 days on the active roster. The braves, knew about the TJ surgery, and looked at his other medicals and passed. He is another guy who I might gamble and leave off.


I don't know. The parameters of that trade were very much up in the air. Could be the Twins wanted the Braves to eat salary at that point. Or they were feeling out whether the Twins were going to leave Burdi unprotected...

#29 spycake

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:59 AM

Burdi is a tough one. Could he be added and then put on the 60 day DL?
Also is it possible that the Braves rejected him in part thinking he might be a potential rule 5 pickup thereby essentially adding another player to the trade? A very long shot I know.

There is no DL in the offseason, so there are only 40 spots until late March. At that point the Twins could move Burdi the 60-day, which could come in handy if they roster a minor league contract guy at the same time.

You might be onto something about the Braves and Burdi in Rule 5 -- they drafted an injured guy before. Although maybe the scuttled trade was the Twins trying to discourage other teams from drafting him -- teams don't get medical info on players before the Rule 5 draft, so health rumors can have an impact.

Edited by spycake, 01 August 2017 - 08:00 AM.

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#30 drjim

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:16 AM

 

There is no DL in the offseason, so there are only 40 spots until late March. At that point the Twins could move Burdi the 60-day, which could come in handy if they roster a minor league contract guy at the same time.

You might be onto something about the Braves and Burdi in Rule 5 -- they drafted an injured guy before. Although maybe the scuttled trade was the Twins trying to discourage other teams from drafting him -- teams don't get medical info on players before the Rule 5 draft, so health rumors can have an impact.

 

Could be those sneaky Braves. Using the pretext of a trade to get a full look at the medicals before popping him in the Rule 5.

 

If there is a roster crunch, I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep keeping Burdi unprotected. 2 major injuries and a couple minor ones before he even reaches the majors. Just don't see him as much of a long term asset.

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#31 Pitz

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:19 AM

I may be wrong about this because I don't fully understand the rule 5 eligibility parameters, but doesn't Diaz have another year before he needs to be added?

 

According to his MiLB page, he signed in November of 2013, so wouldn't that put him in the same boat as Palacios and Arraez?

 

If he is eligible this year, I would tend to agree with others who have pointed out that it seems unlikely that a team would give a 25-man spot to a guy who hasn't played above low A. 

 

Edit: I also see an article from Ben Badler dated July 2, 2013 saying that the Twins signed Lewin Diaz. So, that should help muddy the water. 

 

I was wondering if/how much these stipulations effect international signings. Seems that teams would want to wait until later to sign the players - so they could agree to terms but wait until the fall to officially sign. On the other hand, I suppose players/agents could push to sign earlier to try to get on the 40-man earlier. 


#32 Tibs

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:23 AM

Considering the Twins haven't developed a good SP for themselves outside of Jose Berrios in years, there is absolutely no way I don't protect Thorpe, Slegers, and Stewart. Say what you want about Stewart, but he has yet to fail a level and is a former #4 overall pick. There is no way someone wouldn't take a chance on him.

 

I'm not sure how I feel about adding Lewin Diaz this early. It looks like a Jorge Polanco situation where at least his first two option years will be used in the low minors or AA. That sucks for Polanco because he doesn't have the opportunity to go back down to AAA to get some work in when he clearly needs it. If the FO thinks Diaz absolutely gets taken, then I'm fine with him being protected.

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#33 Dman

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:24 AM

If I was San Diego or some other team that is a likely loser next year I would love to grab another teams top ten prospect in the rule 5 draft.  Super easy way to gain a young controllable player for nothing.  Who cares if Diaz takes up a bench spot all year they are a losing team anyway.  When the Twins were super bad I would have hoped they would do something like that.


#34 drivlikejehu

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:37 AM

Diaz isn't good enough for a team to stash him like that.

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#35 Pitz

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:38 AM

 

If I was San Diego or some other team that is a likely loser next year I would love to grab another teams top ten prospect in the rule 5 draft.  Super easy way to gain a young controllable player for nothing.  Who cares if Diaz takes up a bench spot all year they are a losing team anyway.  When the Twins were super bad I would have hoped they would do something like that.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but consideration also has to be given to how it would impact the player's development. Roster constraints also impact the decisions the team has to make about other players as well. 

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#36 Steve Lein

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:39 AM

Diaz is in the same situation Kepler was a few years ago. (I even asked BA about him back then) Kepler was [added but I don't know why] anyone would add a low-A 1B/DH to their major league roster at this point. 

 

Not even sure Diaz would be in my top 10 right now and Kepler definitely was.

 

Edit: Kepler actually was put on the 40-man that year, but my point still stands.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#37 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:47 AM

 

For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now.

5 pending FA:
Belisle
Colon
Gee
Perkins
Santiago

4 possible nontenders in arbitration:
Gibson
Pressly
Gimenez
Grossman

9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be):
Boshers
Busenitz
Chargois
Hildenberger
O'Rourke
Randy Rosario
Turley
Palka
Vargas

And of course Hughes as a big wild card.

Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.

 

Thanks for putting this together spy! Based off your list, I would let all 5 pending FA's walk. On the arbitration list, I would give Pressly one more chance (on a very short leash) and tender Grossman. There's still a need for a high on-base guy in the lineup and he fills that need at a fairly cheap rate. 

 

On the potential cuts list, I would bring up Turley for the bullpen right now so they can decide between him and Boshers for next season. Chargois is my dark horse DFA... 3 seasons lost to arm injuries. Enough is enough. I wouldn't have any issue letting O'Rourke, Palka, and Vargas go either. 

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#38 Dman

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:48 AM

 

Diaz isn't good enough for a team to stash him like that.

I totally get that he would be in way, way over his head but how much do rule 5 guys play anyway?  We limped along with Haley most of this year and he barely played.  If you are a rebuilding team I don't know why you wouldn't consider it.

 

I will say most of the position players taken have been above A ball and SS, CF or Catchers.  I guess there must be more that goes into it than just grabbing a good prospect.


#39 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:52 AM

 

I totally get that he would be in way, way over his head but how much do rule 5 guys play anyway?  We limped along with Haley most of this year and he barely played.  If you are a rebuilding team I don't know why you wouldn't consider it.

 

I will say most of the position players taken have been above A ball and SS, CF or Catchers.  I guess there must be more that goes into it than just grabbing a good prospect.

 

Even if you're a terrible team, you'd still want your Rule 5 pick to have some sort of positional flexibility or play a premium position like SS, CF, or C. I don't know if you would want an over his head 1B only on roster all season long. That's a tough pill to swallow even for a 90+ loss team. 

Edited by Vanimal46, 01 August 2017 - 08:52 AM.

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#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:52 AM

Every year people say the decisions will be hard, and every year almost no one of meaning is taken. Since MLB changed the rules, almost no one of value has been taken across all of MLB in rule V.

 

that said:

100% Thorpe and Stewart are protected. 100%. Thorpe and Stewart might be ready to be a MLB starter next year at some point.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 01 August 2017 - 08:58 AM.

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.




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