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Article: Twins Trade Kintzler To Nationals

brandon kintzler tyler watson
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#301 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 04:37 PM

You are right, this is not the place to rant against a flawed statistic.
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#302 snepp

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 09:39 PM

His FIP (in a ridiculously small and should never be used seriously sample size) is simply saying that if he continued to pitch at the peripherals that he currently has, you would expect his ERA to settle in at roughly that neighborhood.

 

Flawed? No more than any other statistic. Perfect? Not even close, but doesn't try to be either.

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#303 yarnivek1972

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Posted 16 August 2017 - 06:53 AM

His FIP (in a ridiculously small and should never be used seriously sample size) is simply saying that if he continued to pitch at the peripherals that he currently has, you would expect his ERA to settle in at roughly that neighborhood.

Flawed? No more than any other statistic. Perfect? Not even close, but doesn't try to be either.


I really don't believe FIP would be even a rough estimate of what Kintzler's ERA would be. In Kintzler's full seasons, his FIP has been within half a run of his actual ERA just once, in 2013. It's primary inputs (BB, K, HR) are all things he tends to have smaller than typical totals of. In other words, his FIP is always going to be skewed by SSS simply because the input data is small.

#304 kab21

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Posted 19 August 2017 - 04:10 AM

 

I really don't believe FIP would be even a rough estimate of what Kintzler's ERA would be. In Kintzler's full seasons, his FIP has been within half a run of his actual ERA just once, in 2013. It's primary inputs (BB, K, HR) are all things he tends to have smaller than typical totals of. In other words, his FIP is always going to be skewed by SSS simply because the input data is small.

I hope that you never used FIP against Santiago.

With the amount of data (almost 300 IP) that Kintzler has I believe that he very likely will pitch better than his FIP (about 0.50 difference).  I tend to not trust low K pitchers but he has been an effective pitcher so far and I don't think someone should expect him to turn into a lemon.

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#305 jorgenswest

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Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:58 AM

FIP relies on HR rate which stabilizes around 1320 batters faced. It is pretty useless for relievers but starters can get there in two years.

xFIP relies on fly ball rate which stabilizes much quicker at 70 balls in play. This assumes however that pitchers trend to the same HR/FB rate which probably isn't correct.

Comparing to a reliever's ERA is further complicated by pitchers who enter mid inning or leave mid inning where inherited runners are part of the equation. Those factors have no impact on FIP. For a starter where most of their innings are self contained, partial innings has limited impact. For a middle reliever it is significant.

ERA and FIP are virtually useless for relievers. I don't think any conclusion can be drawn from comparing them.



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