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#101 Darius

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Posted 15 July 2017 - 07:31 PM

They'll try and cram Hughes in there somewhere, unfortunately.

I have a hard time believing that either Gonsalves or Romero will start the year in the rotation. Definitely not Romero. They're already throttling him back and the season's half over.

#102 HitInAPinch

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Posted 16 July 2017 - 05:13 AM

 

In 2016, May had a back injury, which may have included a stress fracture, but I'm not aware that he had any kind of back surgery, which is more serious. Are you sure?

Regarding his return, TJ is serious, but many pitchers come back decently within 12-15 months. It is realistic that May could provide 100 innings in the back half of the year.

Umm, yeah, I think you're right.  I probably read a Surgeon looked at May's back and translated that into a surgery.   

 

My bad!

 

But what I was getting at was May has had repeated injuries and you just can't bet the house on a guy like that.  Maybe they're right, that being a starter will put less stress on his body.  Would be nice to have some more stability in the rotation!

It's not my fault !


#103 kab21

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Posted 16 July 2017 - 07:52 AM

 

Yup!  To me, spending big bucks on one guy is a waste of bucks.  Spend on the youngish #3's to better fill out the entire rotation.  

Youngish players don't really exist in FA and if they are both youngish and #3's then you will be spending big bucks.

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#104 Aaron Cross

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Posted 16 July 2017 - 07:57 AM

I think May is going to come back on a mission. He got shafted by Ryan and Molitor Big time with that ill advised move to the bullpen. Will be a make or break year for him in 2018.

#105 kab21

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Posted 16 July 2017 - 08:21 AM

 

I think May is going to come back on a mission. He got shafted by Ryan and Molitor Big time with that ill advised move to the bullpen. Will be a make or break year for him in 2018.

12 months after TJ (beginning of the season) is never a make or break season. Typically it is a rehab year although some pitchers can be very good that soon.

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#106 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 16 July 2017 - 10:54 AM

Umm, yeah, I think you're right. I probably read a Surgeon looked at May's back and translated that into a surgery.

My bad!

But what I was getting at was May has had repeated injuries and you just can't bet the house on a guy like that. Maybe they're right, that being a starter will put less stress on his body. Would be nice to have some more stability in the rotation!


I agree. For all intents and purposes, you forget May exists. If he gets healthy enough to force his way into the picture, then its a bonus.
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#107 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 16 July 2017 - 11:32 AM

The Twins will stay close enough in the race that they'll hold onto Ervin Santana. They won't get trade value for him in the off-season and hold onto him like they did with Dozier.Opening Day Rotation will be:

1, Santana

2. Berrios.

3. Mejia

4. Gonsalves

5. Gibson (on a very short leash!)

(Jorge and Romero waiting in the wings, maybe Hughes or starter from trash-heap if we're desperate)

Hughes and May (when ready) will help in an improved bullpen. They have some quality bullpen arms: Kintzler, Rogers, Hughes, May, Duffy and whoever proves their worth in spring training (Pressly, Hildenberger, Burdi, Stewart, Chargois, Slegers, Boshers. . . some of those relievers when they are ready coming back from injury).I'm hoping the Twins don't go too far into the FA market, because it looks like they have enough talent to field a pretty good staff of starters and relievers.

 

The Twins are going to be careful with Trevor May as he makes his comeback - so don't expect to see him in the rotation.The team had already relegated him to the bullpen long before he went on the DL..

Edited by strumdatjaguar, 16 July 2017 - 11:34 AM.


#108 kab21

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Posted 17 July 2017 - 12:01 PM

 

The Twins will stay close enough in the race that they'll hold onto Ervin Santana. They won't get trade value for him in the off-season and hold onto him like they did with Dozier.Opening Day Rotation will be:

1, Santana

2. Berrios.

3. Mejia

4. Gonsalves

5. Gibson (on a very short leash!)

(Jorge and Romero waiting in the wings, maybe Hughes or starter from trash-heap if we're desperate)

Hughes and May (when ready) will help in an improved bullpen. They have some quality bullpen arms: Kintzler, Rogers, Hughes, May, Duffy and whoever proves their worth in spring training (Pressly, Hildenberger, Burdi, Stewart, Chargois, Slegers, Boshers. . . some of those relievers when they are ready coming back from injury).I'm hoping the Twins don't go too far into the FA market, because it looks like they have enough talent to field a pretty good staff of starters and relievers.

 

The Twins are going to be careful with Trevor May as he makes his comeback - so don't expect to see him in the rotation.The team had already relegated him to the bullpen long before he went on the DL..

This just isn't going to happen. Mejia, Gonsalves (30-35 AA starts) and Gibson as the #3/4/5 starters is setting up for a train wreck of another season.

 

I think it is almost for certain that the FO goes outside of the organization for at least one starter giving the team a solid top 3. It will be expensive but this team is going nowhere without pitching. And even if they add one starter it is still a shaky (less so) rotation.

  • Oxtung and Vanimal46 like this

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#109 Deduno Abides

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Posted 17 July 2017 - 01:54 PM

I agree. For all intents and purposes, you forget May exists. If he gets healthy enough to force his way into the picture, then its a bonus.


Quick research:

Yu Darvish had Tommy John almost a year to the day earlier than May. He was back in June and pitched 100 innings last year.

Alex Cobb had TJ in mid-May, 2015, and started five games last September (the last two were clunkers).

15 month recovery and return isn't unusual. The goal would be for May to be a competent #5. If he provides 1.0 WAR in 90-100 innings, he would be the Twins' best #5 in years.
Trade deadline: surrender, surrender, but don't give yourself away.

#110 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 July 2017 - 01:56 PM

 

Quick research:

Yu Darvish had Tommy John almost a year to the day earlier than May. He was back in June and pitched 100 innings last year.

Alex Cobb had TJ in mid-May, 2015, and started five games last September (the last two were clunkers).

15 month recovery and return isn't unusual. The goal would be for May to be a competent #5. If he provides 1.0 WAR in 90-100 innings, he would be the Twins' best #5 in years.

 

both of those guys were starters before TJ. I think that's the big delta.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#111 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 17 July 2017 - 03:43 PM

Quick research:

Yu Darvish had Tommy John almost a year to the day earlier than May. He was back in June and pitched 100 innings last year.

Alex Cobb had TJ in mid-May, 2015, and started five games last September (the last two were clunkers).

15 month recovery and return isn't unusual. The goal would be for May to be a competent #5. If he provides 1.0 WAR in 90-100 innings, he would be the Twins' best #5 in years.


I don't disagree that could happen.
But, everyone recovers differently.
If the Twins go into the season with that as the plan, then they will deserve it if it backfires.

#112 Deduno Abides

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Posted 17 July 2017 - 04:13 PM

I don't disagree that could happen.
But, everyone recovers differently.
If the Twins go into the season with that as the plan, then they will deserve it if it backfires.


Should be a forecasted possibility. Somewhere between "will happen" and "who knows." In combination with other possibilities, such as Gonsalves and/or Romero being OK, the #5 slot may be in better shape than it has in years and the team may not need to give opportunities to pitchers like Nick Tepesch or waste money on veterans like Mike Pelfrey next year. The focus can be on #1 and, if Santana is traded, #3.
Trade deadline: surrender, surrender, but don't give yourself away.

#113 kab21

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Posted 17 July 2017 - 09:30 PM

 

both of those guys were starters before TJ. I think that's the big delta.

the bigger difference is that they are only two data points. Some pitchers have returned in 12-14 months but typically the effectiveness of pitchers in the 12-18 month window is really mixed. May is nothing more than plan G next season. Maybe he contributes but there better be many other options available.

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#114 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 06:11 AM

I have no problems rotating a couple of rookies (Romero/Gonsalves/Stewart/Rodriguez) or even Hughes in at 5 while they wait for May to get healthy. I'm a bit more concerned about 1-4 if we go into the season with no FA help. I'm assuming we don't trade Santana, giving us 3 competent pitchers in Santana, Mejia, and Berrios... but Santana could definitely fall off that proverbial cliff sometime soon, and I really don't want to hear Gibson or Hughes for that spot. They need to get one solid FA (two if they trade Santana). 

 

I'd also go for the 4A type to fill out Rochester (by 4A, I mean guys putting up video game numbers in AAA that haven't translated).

 

1 FA and no Santana trade should equate to some reasonable depth in SP, but please please please, no dumster diving for that position.

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#115 kab21

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 09:43 AM

 

I have no problems rotating a couple of rookies (Romero/Gonsalves/Stewart/Rodriguez) or even Hughes in at 5 while they wait for May to get healthy. I'm a bit more concerned about 1-4 if we go into the season with no FA help. I'm assuming we don't trade Santana, giving us 3 competent pitchers in Santana, Mejia, and Berrios... but Santana could definitely fall off that proverbial cliff sometime soon, and I really don't want to hear Gibson or Hughes for that spot. They need to get one solid FA (two if they trade Santana). 

 

I'd also go for the 4A type to fill out Rochester (by 4A, I mean guys putting up video game numbers in AAA that haven't translated).

 

1 FA and no Santana trade should equate to some reasonable depth in SP, but please please please, no dumster diving for that position.

I think signing 1 FA or making one trade is a good first step. This has been my argument against trading Santana. If you only have Berrios then you have to add 3 good starters. If you have Berrios and Santana then you only need to add 2. Once you make one move then you need one. Getting one good starter is possible through prospect promotion or another move but getting 3 is a very long road to take.

 

My goal would be 4 average or better starters and 3-4 alright-ish ones (depth). Ideally you get a true ace or even really good #2 but I worry about that once there is some level of stability in the rotation.

 

I am not putting Mejia in the competent category yet. He has had a mixed first season so far and there are some encouraging signs but also some signs that he never approaches average.

Edited by kab21, 18 July 2017 - 09:49 AM.

  • diehardtwinsfan likes this

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#116 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 10:50 AM

 

I think signing 1 FA or making one trade is a good first step. This has been my argument against trading Santana. If you only have Berrios then you have to add 3 good starters. If you have Berrios and Santana then you only need to add 2. Once you make one move then you need one. Getting one good starter is possible through prospect promotion or another move but getting 3 is a very long road to take.

 

My goal would be 4 average or better starters and 3-4 alright-ish ones (depth). Ideally you get a true ace or even really good #2 but I worry about that once there is some level of stability in the rotation.

 

I am not putting Mejia in the competent category yet. He has had a mixed first season so far and there are some encouraging signs but also some signs that he never approaches average.

 

Yeah, I should note that I'm fine with a trade too, if you're getting an established starter, but a guy like JDL still falls more into the depth category since he's ultimately unproven.

 

I think Mejia at this point has earned a spot for year two. That's just me obviously, and while I agree he's been inconsistent, he's been trending better and has performed well enough. Yeah, he's not a top of the rotation guy, but he has the potential to be a better than average ML pitcher and one that could start hitting said potential in the not so distant future. That's why I want a lot of depth in AAA personally. He's still a question mark, but he's earning a longer leash.


#117 Tomj14

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 10:57 AM

Those including May in the 2018 plans are crazy, what has he ever done to prove he belongs in that conversation? I sure hope when he comes back he pushes the other starters but that is crazy talk.

You have Santana, Berrios, Meija. That looks like we are too short, but if you go out and find one starting pitcher, you can have Gibson, May and others for the 5th spot.

Basically start over in the bullpen though.


#118 kab21

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 11:02 AM

 

Yeah, I should note that I'm fine with a trade too, if you're getting an established starter, but a guy like JDL still falls more into the depth category since he's ultimately unproven.

 

I think Mejia at this point has earned a spot for year two. That's just me obviously, and while I agree he's been inconsistent, he's been trending better and has performed well enough. Yeah, he's not a top of the rotation guy, but he has the potential to be a better than average ML pitcher and one that could start hitting said potential in the not so distant future. That's why I want a lot of depth in AAA personally. He's still a question mark, but he's earning a longer leash.

Mejia has certainly earned a spot for next year but I just wouldn't fully count on him at this point. With him at #4 and Gonsalves (or different prospect) there is still a lot that can go wrong. At least in that case there is potential for things to go right since they have upside.

The trade that I would be talking about is Gray, Fulmer or someone proven.

Edited by kab21, 18 July 2017 - 11:03 AM.

  • diehardtwinsfan likes this

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.