Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

2018 Rotation

  • Please log in to reply
117 replies to this topic

#41 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,115 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:26 AM

 

He's also lower cost because he's not as good as Kluber, Cueto, Bumgarner or Price, to name some of the big October pitchers from the last few years and one of the big deadline acquisitions, or other big buck pitchers. Lynn may be "worth the money," and he could be part of an October rotation, but he's not going to be the leader, which is what the Twins need.

He's also entering the decline phase of his career, so Falvine may not want to buy an extended commitment to Lynn.

 

Almost every FA pitcher will be entering the decline phase during their FA contract. It's part of the price of getting really good FAs for more than 2-3 months in a trade.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#42 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 7,698 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:52 AM

 

 

 

And, we can literally only judge them on what they do. so far, it's hard to love most of their moves, is that not fair?

Not sure. I'm ok with their non-moves on the offense + adding Castro. They seemed intent to let the young core play. They didn't trade Dozier so I suppose that's a strike but it doesn't seem like there was ever a really good offer. I loved the draft. I loved adding Pickler. I loved moving Sean Johnson to draft guru. I'm glad Bruno is gone and Rowson (sp) seems good.

 

Sure, the bullpen and rotation are bad but really there weren't necessarily better moves (at their prices) out there. Different ones, sure. But not automatically better. So, nah, I'm not overly bothered by Breslow or Belisle getting a contract. 

 

Now, if they don't make any affirmative changes and keep Molitor as manager next year at this time, I'll be upset.

  • Mike Sixel and HitInAPinch like this

#43 Rosterman

Rosterman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,577 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:58 AM

2018 rotation:

 

Dillon Gee

Bartolo Colon

Nik Turley

Kyle Gibson

Jose Berrios

 

with backups

Trevor May

Phil Hughes

Tyler Duffey

 

I'm buying a season ticket package so I can have first dibs on playoff tickets.

 

 

Seriously, if a rebuild:

Jose Berrios

Trevor May

Stephen Gonsalves

Felix Jorge

Fernando Romero

and Mejias (May won't be able to pitch more than 100 innings)

 

 

with Slegers, Duffey, Stewart as the main bodies in the wings.

 

And I'll jsut continue to buy tickets from StubHub on-line for a fraction or retail.

Edited by Rosterman, 13 July 2017 - 11:58 AM.

  • Mike Sixel likes this

Joel Thingvall
www.joelthingvall.com
rosterman at www.twinscards.com


#44 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,115 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 12:03 PM

 

Not sure. I'm ok with their non-moves on the offense + adding Castro. They seemed intent to let the young core play. They didn't trade Dozier so I suppose that's a strike but it doesn't seem like there was ever a really good offer. I loved the draft. I loved adding Pickler. I loved moving Sean Johnson to draft guru. I'm glad Bruno is gone and Rowson (sp) seems good.

 

Sure, the bullpen and rotation are bad but really there weren't necessarily better moves (at their prices) out there. Different ones, sure. But not automatically better. So, nah, I'm not overly bothered by Breslow or Belisle getting a contract. 

 

Now, if they don't make any affirmative changes and keep Molitor as manager next year at this time, I'll be upset.

 

Fair. I hated the bullpen moves then, hate them even more now that all the young guys are either hurt, or not given a chance yet. I don't have enough data to figure out how to fix the SP, but it should not surprise anyone it was bad again this year.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 13 July 2017 - 12:03 PM.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#45 Deduno Abides

Deduno Abides

    Creedence

  • Members
  • 1,329 posts
  • LocationUndirectional

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:14 PM

Almost every FA pitcher will be entering the decline phase during their FA contract. It's part of the price of getting really good FAs for more than 2-3 months in a trade.


True, but if you're going for it, you'd rather pay up to get the decline years of a 6 WAR pitcher than make a "value" purchase of a 3 WAR pitcher. Long-term deals with non-star pitchers leave you in the dead zone, where you have too much hope to do a rebuild and not enough budget to get the stars you need to win, unless you have a bunch of other cost-controlled stars.

Edited by Deduno Abides, 13 July 2017 - 02:15 PM.

Trade deadline: surrender, surrender, but don't give yourself away.

#46 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,115 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:15 PM

 

True, but if you're going for it, you'd rather pay up to get the decline years of a 6 WAR pitcher than make a "value"'purchase of a 3 WAR pitcher. Long-term deals with non-star pitchers leave you in the dead zone, where you have too much hope to do a rebuild and not enough budget to get the stars you need to win, unless you have a bunch of other cost-controlled stars.

 

of course teams would rather have a 6 WAR player than a 3 WAR player......but the Twins aren't going to win the bidding for a 6 WAR FA.

  • gunnarthor, Major Leauge Ready and HitInAPinch like this

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#47 Deduno Abides

Deduno Abides

    Creedence

  • Members
  • 1,329 posts
  • LocationUndirectional

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:25 PM

of course teams would rather have a 6 WAR player than a 3 WAR player......but the Twins aren't going to win the bidding for a 6 WAR FA.


See, now, that's a negative prediction based on the actions of people that are no longer in charge. Management has changed and player perceptions of the Twins may be changing. Colon isn't a big dog (well, he is, but not in the context we've been discussing), but he chose the Twins over the Mets. Let's give management some time before saying they can't or won't do something.

Also, next year, a three month rental may be all that's needed. Although the Twins don't currently have the prospects to match what the Red Sox traded for Sale or the Cubs traded for Quintana, next year they may have higher ranking prospects and a rental would cost less than either of those pitchers.
Trade deadline: surrender, surrender, but don't give yourself away.

#48 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,873 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:30 PM

See, now, that's a negative prediction based on the actions of people that are no longer in charge. Management has changed and player perceptions of the Twins may be changing. Colon isn't a big dog (well, he is, but not in the context we've been discussing), but he chose the Twins over the Mets. Let's give management some time before saying they can't or won't do something.

Also, next year, a three month rental may be all that's needed. Although the Twins don't currently have the prospects to match what the Red Sox traded for Sale or the Cubs traded for Quintana, next year they may have higher ranking prospects and a rental would cost less than either of those pitchers.


The Pohlads still own the team.
It's fun to suggest or hope that they will suddenly change how they operate with money, but its just not realistic.
The Twins left a couple intriguing draft picks on the table because the Pohlads won't even pay a relatively small penalty for exceeding draft pool. No chance they pay what it would cost to buy a 6 WAR pitcher on the open market.
  • Mike Sixel, gunnarthor and yarnivek1972 like this

#49 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,115 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:39 PM

 

See, now, that's a negative prediction based on the actions of people that are no longer in charge. Management has changed and player perceptions of the Twins may be changing. Colon isn't a big dog (well, he is, but not in the context we've been discussing), but he chose the Twins over the Mets. Let's give management some time before saying they can't or won't do something.

Also, next year, a three month rental may be all that's needed. Although the Twins don't currently have the prospects to match what the Red Sox traded for Sale or the Cubs traded for Quintana, next year they may have higher ranking prospects and a rental would cost less than either of those pitchers.

 

Fair.

 

It's SUPER UNLIKELY the Twins will outspend the Yankees, TX, Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, TOR, STL, other Sox, Sea, and nearly every other tam in MLB for the best FA on the market. IMO, of course. It is certainly possible that they will outbid the teams that have tv deals worth 3-10x their deal for the best FA player on the market. It seems, um, unlikely though. 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#50 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,802 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:42 PM

 

The Pohlads still own the team.
It's fun to suggest or hope that they will suddenly change how they operate with money, but its just not realistic.
The Twins left a couple intriguing draft picks on the table because the Pohlads won't even pay a relatively small penalty for exceeding draft pool. No chance they pay what it would cost to buy a 6 WAR pitcher on the open market.

 

Are you certain that they didn't offer that money to said HS kids and it wasn't enough?


#51 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,873 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:47 PM

Are you certain that they didn't offer that money to said HS kids and it wasn't enough?


Of course I'm not certain.
But the Twins have never gone over, so I'm not sure they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

#52 Deduno Abides

Deduno Abides

    Creedence

  • Members
  • 1,329 posts
  • LocationUndirectional

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:47 PM

The Pohlads still own the team.
It's fun to suggest or hope that they will suddenly change how they operate with money, but its just not realistic.
The Twins left a couple intriguing draft picks on the table because the Pohlads won't even pay a relatively small penalty for exceeding draft pool. No chance they pay what it would cost to buy a 6 WAR pitcher on the open market.


Yes, spending will depend on what the Pohlads consider to be a successful season. Every year, they asked Ryan what he thought should be spent and he spent what he thought was needed - to make the playoffs. Time will tell whether that continues with Falvine. People may not remember, but at one time Kirby Puckett was the highest paid player in baseball - when a Pohlad owned the team.
Trade deadline: surrender, surrender, but don't give yourself away.

#53 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,115 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:49 PM

 

Yes, spending will depend on what the Pohlads consider to be a successful season. Every year, they asked Ryan what he thought should be spent and he spent what he thought was needed - to make the playoffs. Time will tell whether that continues with Falvine. People may not remember, but at one time Kirby Puckett was the highest paid player in baseball - when a Pohlad owned the team.

 

but he wasn't a FA, was he?

 

The team said, clearly, they built TF so they could keep the guys they want. Not to buy big time FAs.

 

But we'll see, maybe they will outbid all the other teams for the best FA types going forward. It certainly would be a massive change.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 13 July 2017 - 02:49 PM.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#54 Deduno Abides

Deduno Abides

    Creedence

  • Members
  • 1,329 posts
  • LocationUndirectional

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:51 PM

Fair.
 
It's SUPER UNLIKELY the Twins will outspend the Yankees, TX, Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, TOR, STL, other Sox, Sea, and nearly every other tam in MLB for the best FA on the market. IMO, of course. It is certainly possible that they will outbid the teams that have tv deals worth 3-10x their deal for the best FA player on the market. It seems, um, unlikely though.


It's not certain that the Twins need to sign a David Price contract to win. A Johnny Cueto trade may be all that is needed, if Berrios keeps getting better and the team gets a strong #3. That said, if you go back in time by two years and replace "Twins" with "Diamondbacks," you'd understand the thoughts of their fans before they got Greinke.
Trade deadline: surrender, surrender, but don't give yourself away.

#55 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,115 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:53 PM

 

It's not certain that the Twins need to sign a David Price contract to win. A Johnny Cueto trade may be all that is needed, if Berrios keeps getting better and the team gets a strong #3. That said, if you go back in time by two years and replace "Twins" with "Diamondbacks," you'd understand the thoughts of their fans before they got Greinke.

 

I'm sorry, I thought we were clearly discussing if they would sign a 6 WAR player. Was that not the discussion?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#56 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,873 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:53 PM

Yes, spending will depend on what the Pohlads consider to be a successful season. Every year, they asked Ryan what he thought should be spent and he spent what he thought was needed - to make the playoffs. Time will tell whether that continues with Falvine. People may not remember, but at one time Kirby Puckett was the highest paid player in baseball - when a Pohlad owned the team.


That's Ryan being a good company man. The Pohlads have always had a budget, 50% of revenue I believe has been reported several times.
GM's don't refuse to spend more money. Spending more is no guarantee but it's clearly an advantage.
No GM is going to say, "thanks for the offer boss, but I like a good challenge! I'm going to see if I can build a winner for less!"
If he did refuse more payroll, then he's stupid. And, i have a lot of issues with Ryan, but I don't believe for a second he's ever been stupid in his life.
  • Mike Sixel, gunnarthor and laloesch like this

#57 Deduno Abides

Deduno Abides

    Creedence

  • Members
  • 1,329 posts
  • LocationUndirectional

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:58 PM

I'm sorry, I thought we were clearly discussing if they would sign a 6 WAR player. Was that not the discussion?


The discussion is how to get a #1. I'm concerned that this thread is changing into yet another "Pohlads are cheap" discussion.
Trade deadline: surrender, surrender, but don't give yourself away.

#58 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,794 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:58 PM

 

That's Ryan being a good company man. The Pohlads have always had a budget, 50% of revenue I believe has been reported several times.
GM's don't refuse to spend more money. Spending more is no guarantee but it's clearly an advantage.
No GM is going to say, "thanks for the offer boss, but I like a good challenge! I'm going to see if I can build a winner for less!"
If he did refuse more payroll, then he's stupid. And, i have a lot of issues with Ryan, but I don't believe for a second he's ever been stupid in his life.

Well, he did sign RonDL White.

 

And then signed him AGAIN the next year.  What's the saying?  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...


#59 mikelink45

mikelink45

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,026 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 03:08 PM

Let's assume that we do not have the fire power to pull off a trade.  Then the effort should be to push Gonsalves, Romero and even Sleger's into the fray as they have with Turley and Jorge.  Get their feet wet, test them.  See what we have.  Santiago and Gibson are known and what we know is not good enough so lets prepare to move on.  Our trade chips are too weak for a big splash and we have to think strategically about who will be at SS and 2B while thinking of who will be the missing two or three pitchers in the rotation.  We need the defense to support pitchers that are #2 - #4 in talent and a bullpen to take over the end of the game. 

 

Straily does not interest me because we have a history of investing in career years only to see us paying too much for regression, Quintana is gone and has set the trade bar too high.  

 

Then there is May.  How many years have I read about him, his talent, and his ability, but he reminds me of Pressly - lots of talent, but tough to get it to deliver the results  He is now 27, will be 28 when he returns and will need to get back in shape as he starts to move through what should be his prime years, but he is 13 - 17 (Sorry Keith Law, but I do like wins) with a 5.14 ERA in 102 games over 3 years and that does not give me confidence.  He and Meyer came in together with so much promise, but neither has made me a big league believer.

  • Mike Sixel likes this

#60 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,873 posts

Posted 13 July 2017 - 03:15 PM

The discussion is how to get a #1. I'm concerned that this thread is changing into yet another "Pohlads are cheap" discussion.


Wow you are blowing my mind Deduno.
Mike: Here is how we can try to get a 3 WAR pitcher.
You: I'd rather try to get a 6 WAR pitcher.
Mike: We all would, but Twins won't pay for a 6 WAR pitcher.
You: You are unfairly ripping the Twins for being cheap.
Mike: (explains why it's really unlikely they'd pay for a 6 WAR pitcher)
You: I never said it had to be a 6 WAR pitcher, it could be a 3 WAR pitcher (what Mike said to begin with).

Really, wow, that's impressive Deduno.
  • Mike Sixel and HitInAPinch like this