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#21 Deduno Abides

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 09:34 AM

You don't need the traditional 1-5.  2008 -2010 did pretty well because they had guys that could occasionally pitch like aces but basically were 3 guys that pitched like either 2's or 3's in Pavano, Liriano and Baker and guys like Slowey, Blackburn and Duensing that were back of rotation guys but were better than other team;s back of rotation guys.  Anything that adds up to 15 or less is desirable.  Santana looks like he is in pretty good shape and was just an all star.  Berrios, and Santana at #2 Romero at # 3 and May and Meijia pitching like Good 4's or ok 3's gets us there. Not that I am opposed to getting another good pitcher.  I dispute the idea that you need a power #1 pitcher to do well in the playoffs.  First, I don't know why a power #1 is better than a non power #1 and the Twins have beaten guys like Sale before and a #2 guy pitching well gives you a chance any game. I would love to have an ace but it is no guarantee of success and not having one is not a guarantee of failure.


2008-2010 didn't win any playoff games. It's not a good model. The corollary to the theory of "just get to the playoffs and take your chances" is to add "if you have a couple of horses," which has a modern variation of "or at least one horse and an amazing bullpen." The 2018 team will need at least one horse, which the 2008-2010 teams did not have.
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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 09:36 AM

Quintana to the Cubs, for a LARGE hall.....so he's out.

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#23 goulik

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 09:36 AM

I like this game but will reserve my final opinions for 2 1/2 more weeks as there is way too much depending on whether or not the new brass acquire a SP at the deadline. I will say our number one will either be a new acquisition before the deadline or Berrios.

#24 Deduno Abides

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 09:36 AM

I'm a Cardinal fan, and I think Lance Lynn is somewhat underrated.  Missed last season (Tommy John?), but otherwise is pretty consistent.  Will give you 175-200 innings, average about 3 BB & 8 K's per 9.  I think he's a solid #3 starter, so maybe not a great fit for the Twins, who seem to need a #1 or #2.  Columnists who cover the Cardinals estimate he'll be asking for a Mike Leake size contract (roughly 6 years, 80 million), and they assume the Cardinals will give him a QO, so he'd cost a draft pick.  He definitely adds good depth to a rotation, and I think the Cards will miss his dependability.  But they feel they've got enough good, young pitchers to replace him.


Lance Lynn is a fine pitcher, but, as you say, the Twins need a big dog, which Lance isn't.
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#25 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 09:39 AM

I have to think they go out and get at least one starter via FA or trade (two if ESan is traded).I don't think you can count on May, but I'm not too worried about letting the 5 spot revolve between May, (possibly Duffey), Gonsalves, Romero, or Jorge. I'd be more worried if they didn't go out and get at least one above average starter or 2 if they traded Santana.

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#26 Deduno Abides

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 09:41 AM

If we sign Shohei Otani, he can switch off as Pitcher/DH every other day. That way, you really only need 2-3 more SPs.


Plus, then you could trade Robbie Grossman to the Mariners for James Paxton. Maybe they'd throw in their rights to Russell Wilson, also.
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#27 Twodogs

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 10:03 AM

That could be a way to start the year, but then they should be prepared to make a big upgrade at mid-season. Lynn is OK, but he seems like the lower-cost guys that Terry Ryan used to get, like Rick Reed, who were good enough to keep you in contention for the division or wild card, but not good enough to improve the odds of success in the playoffs.


I think the only reason he would seem to be lower cost is because he's not flashy and he is coming off an injury. If you look at his overall body of work, he looks really good to me. I don't think he's ever had a losing season in his career.
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#28 gunnarthor

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 10:11 AM

 

I'm going to get tired of trying not to lose trades, and being "ok", and not trying to win. This is the window we have all been "promised" by various experts. If not when you have Sano and Berrios, when?

Was not the premise of this thread that the Twins don't make a trade? We saw that no market developed for Dozier last year so there's probably not much there.  The Twins do have some young hitters they could try and trade - Gordon, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Sano (in that order) - but they aren't ever going to make a major FA signing. 


#29 Linus

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 10:12 AM

I don't think ESan is this good next year, or the year after, but let's stick him in spot 3 for now.

The Twins seem set with Berrios and Mejia (back end) and spots 6-9 with the guys in AAA and AA (though I'd have them up at AAA now). May should not be counted on. Hughes is done and should not be counted on imo. I think Gibson and Santiago are non-tendered, but I would not be surprised if one of them is kept, alas.

Berrios
ESan
Mejia

I think they need 2 new SPs. I would expect one FA signing, though I am betting we are all underwhelmed with the name.

I think this assessment is spot on. I really hope they move on from Santiago and gibson.

#30 Tomj14

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 10:29 AM

I say to agree with those that are saying Gonzo/Romero/May should not be counted on really for anything and if they do something it will just be gravy.

 

Santana, Berrios, Meijashould be fine. I still have a little faith in Gibson if all we expect out of a 5th starter is 5 or 6 decent innings (which he has done for 11 of 16 starts)

 

We figure out how to get somebody to fit into the top 3.

And HOPE one of these three Gonzo/Romero/May take over for Gibson if he can't be counted on for the 5 or 6 innings.

 

IMO

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#31 Dantes929

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 10:35 AM

 

2008-2010 didn't win any playoff games. It's not a good model. The corollary to the theory of "just get to the playoffs and take your chances" is to add "if you have a couple of horses," which has a modern variation of "or at least one horse and an amazing bullpen." The 2018 team will need at least one horse, which the 2008-2010 teams did not have.

We had a 3-1 game two lead in the 9th inning with our all star closer on the mound in 2009. We had a 1-0 lead going into the 7th in game three and ran ourselves off the bases in the 8th.  

In 2010 we had similar leads in the 6th and 7th of games one and two. Starting pitching put us in position to win all those games. Don't confuse didn't win with could not have won.  

 

 KC had a  worse model in 2015 and 2016.  Of course an ace is preferable but I am ok with taking our chances if we get to the playoffs.  Put the horse before the cart.  Get to the playoffs and you have a chance. Don't get there and you have no chance.  Is trading offensive talent for pitching talent going to get us there? If so, then do it. If internal pitching guys step up and can get us to the playoffs without sacrificing Gordon or Kepler or Buxton.  That is ok also. These guys don't impress me as still being afraid of the Yankees or anyone else  if they do get there.

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#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 10:37 AM

 

We had a 3-1 game two lead in the 9th inning with our all star closer on the mound in 2009. We had a 1-0 lead going into the 7th in game three and ran ourselves off the bases in the 8th.  

In 2010 we had similar leads in the 6th and 7th of games one and two. Starting pitching put us in position to win all those games. Don't confuse didn't win with could not have won.  

 

 KC had a  worse model in 2015 and 2016.  Of course an ace is preferable but I am ok with taking our chances if we get to the playoffs.  Put the horse before the cart.  Get to the playoffs and you have a chance. Don't get there and you have no chance.  Is trading offensive talent for pitching talent going to get us there? If so, then do it. If internal pitching guys step up and can get us to the playoffs without sacrificing Gordon or Kepler or Buxton.  That is ok also. These guys don't impress me as still being afraid of the Yankees or anyone else  if they do get there.

 

KC built a GREAT bullpen. How's that going here, with Breslow and Belisle being the only outside adds to one of the worst bullpens in baseball?

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#33 gunnarthor

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 10:45 AM

 

KC built a GREAT bullpen. How's that going here, with Breslow and Belisle being the only outside adds to one of the worst bullpens in baseball?

Man, I can't imagine how negative you're going to be when the Twins don't have the fifth best record in the AL.  

 

Give Levine some time, I think he'll be a pretty good GM and I'm fairly certain he knows what the team needs.

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#34 howieramone2

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 10:56 AM

 

The 2018 rotation is one of the hottest topics underlying many discussions above 2017. "Trade Gordon or Santana"? How does it affect the 2018 rotation? "Bring up Romero to pitch in the bullpen"? How does it affect the 2018 rotation? "What position should Sano play"? "How to handle the trade deadline"? Same issue comes up.

As it is right now, perhaps only two pitchers look close to written in: Berrios at #2 and Mejia at #4. Perhaps three pitchers are the early leaders for #5, all of whom have great promise but also large question marks. Any of May, Gonsalves and Romero would probably be the best #5 the Twins have had since whenever, and even though each has large unknowns, the potential might be good enough that there will not be a need to give serious consideration to a Ryan Vogelsong or a Nick Tepesch (or a Pat Dean or a . . .) Let's just pause here and recognize how great an improvement that is.

The open spots are #1 and #3. If Ervin Santana is NOT traded, he should slot in at #3. He is still good, but he'll be 35 and he pitches like a late career Brad Radke more than a mid-career Justin Verlander. If the goal is to have a good shot to win the playoffs, as opposed to just making the playoffs, a true #1 power pitcher will be needed. Candidates will be available, depending on how much the team wants to pay or which minor league stars it's willing to trade. (Oh, wouldn't it be great if they had someone who could develop young pitchers like the Rays minor league teams do?) Even Madison Bumgarner may be available mid-season if the Giants don't turn around.

If the Twins do trade Santana, it may be easier to get a #3 this winter. Hopefully, they will also have a pitching coach like the Astros or Pirates, where they take relative scrap heap pitchers like Fiers, McHugh, Peacock, Morton, Burnett, Liriano, Nova, Happ and others and turn them into valuable starters on competitive teams. In fact, the pitching coach could be the most valuable first hire, because a great pitching coach who can expand the #3 candidate pool would reduce the need to pay full value - and take the financial risk of an injury - for a #3 pitcher that has fully maximized his skills and doesn't need assistance, enabling the team to spend on other positions, including a #1 starter and the bullpen.

Also, if the team trades Santana, and perhaps Kintzler or others, at this year's trade deadline, it is conceivable that a candidate for #3 starter is one of the pieces that comes back.

So here's how it lines up.

1. Open
2. Berrios
3. Santana or open
4. Mejia
5. May, Gonsalves or Romero

What do you think? Is that a reasonable beginning for a staff that could make some noise in the 2018 playoffs? What strategies could be used to fill the open slots, and when should those strategies be executed?

Good stuff!

 

The way I see it is: 

 

1/2 Berrios and Santana

3 Trade deadline pickup

4 Free agency signing

5. Gibson

6/7 Gonsalves/Mejia

In the wings: Romero, Jorge, Stewart

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#35 Deduno Abides

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:00 AM

KC built a GREAT bullpen. How's that going here, with Breslow and Belisle being the only outside adds to one of the worst bullpens in baseball?


This is exactly the point about having an OK rotation while relying on a bullpen. Even if you start with the top of the Twins' bullpen, in Kintzler and Rogers, neither is equivalent to the top three of K.C.'s 2015 bullpen of Herrera, Davis and Holland, plus K.C. had other great options, like Madson and Finnegan, while Morales and Hochevar had great years. It seems more likely that the Twins can compete in 2018 based on improving their rotation and adding a couple of relievers than it can by having an OK rotation while hoping for a bullpen like K.C. in 2015 or Cleveland in 2016. Also, don't forget that both of those teams had one big dog starter who is far better than anyone currently on the Twins, in Cueto and Kluber.

Edited by Deduno Abides, 13 July 2017 - 11:02 AM.

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#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:05 AM

 

Man, I can't imagine how negative you're going to be when the Twins don't have the fifth best record in the AL.  

 

Give Levine some time, I think he'll be a pretty good GM and I'm fairly certain he knows what the team needs.

 

I have said repeatedly it is too early to make any kind of final judgement, but to say (as many here have that) they needed to see the bullpen and SP in action before knowing additions needed to be made seems funny to me. Everyone in baseball and baseball fandom knew this pitching staff was bad and thin.

 

And, we can literally only judge them on what they do. so far, it's hard to love most of their moves, is that not fair?

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#37 Twodogs

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:09 AM

I'm a Cardinal fan, and I think Lance Lynn is somewhat underrated. Missed last season (Tommy John?), but otherwise is pretty consistent. Will give you 175-200 innings, average about 3 BB & 8 K's per 9. I think he's a solid #3 starter, so maybe not a great fit for the Twins, who seem to need a #1 or #2. Columnists who cover the Cardinals estimate he'll be asking for a Mike Leake size contract (roughly 6 years, 80 million), and they assume the Cardinals will give him a QO, so he'd cost a draft pick. He definitely adds good depth to a rotation, and I think the Cards will miss his dependability. But they feel they've got enough good, young pitchers to replace him.

I agree with you that Lynn would be a great acquisition for the Twins and usually guys have a better year two after TJ surgery than year one. But I think Lynn would be the top of what the Twins can get, I don't feel there is any way they get Yu Darvish or anyone like that. Lynn, I feel looks much better than a Rick Reed type. I think with
Lynn
Berrios
Santana
Mejia
They have a shot at being consistent at the front end of the rotation, I also see people looking at Pineda, but I think Lynn is better, but if they went and got Pineda also a la Nolasco and Hughes a few years back that wouldn't hurt the rotation at all. But for some reason Pineda looks like one of those guys with lots of stuff but just somehow gets in his own way, same as a guy like Ubaldo Jimenez, lots of stuff but seems to lose all of the time? But if they got two guys, and Lynn was one of them, they would be much better than they are now.

Actually looking a Pineda closer, I stand corrected, he does look pretty good, maybe just some bad luck last year?? But my next question is why would the Yankees let him go? They don't look like they have a very deep rotation either? I'd say the Yanks do what they can to resign him.

Edited by Twodogs, 13 July 2017 - 11:19 AM.

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#38 Deduno Abides

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:11 AM

I think the only reason he would seem to be lower cost is because he's not flashy and he is coming off an injury. If you look at his overall body of work, he looks really good to me. I don't think he's ever had a losing season in his career.


He's also lower cost because he's not as good as Kluber, Cueto, Bumgarner or Price, to name some of the big October pitchers from the last few years and one of the big deadline acquisitions, or other big buck pitchers. Lynn may be "worth the money," and he could be part of an October rotation, but he's not going to be the leader, which is what the Twins need.

He's also entering the decline phase of his career, so Falvine may not want to buy an extended commitment to Lynn.
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#39 Deduno Abides

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:17 AM

Here is my optimistic and probably not realistic stab at a 2018 rotation...
 
1) Yu Darvish
2) Berrios
3) Pitcher they've acquired in trade, I'll say Kevin Gausman or Dan Straily, but it could be anyone. They've used at least Gonsalves in the deal, along with other prospects.
4) Pitcher they have acquired for Ervin Santana. I'll guess Luis Ortiz of the Brewers.
5) Mejia
 
May and Romero and Derek Rodriguez and Kohl Stewart are all ready at AAA/bullpen to step in.


These are interesting ideas, Gausman in particular. Before diving into trades for someone like that, I hope Falvine lock into a pitching coach that they feel can maximize his value.
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#40 Twodogs

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 11:23 AM

He's also lower cost because he's not as good as Kluber, Cueto, Bumgarner or Price, to name some of the big October pitchers from the last few years and one of the big deadline acquisitions, or other big buck pitchers. Lynn may be "worth the money," and he could be part of an October rotation, but he's not going to be the leader, which is what the Twins need.

He's also entering the decline phase of his career, so Falvine may not want to buy an extended commitment to Lynn.

I hear your concern with a 4 year deal with Lynn, but that is the window everyone is saying the Twins have with the core 4 so if your looking beyond that with a FA pitcher then your looking beyond the supposed window?? Almost anyone who is good now fits the window in my opinion?

Plus my hope, and for the sake of the Twins, over the next year or two Berrios needs to take over as the Ace of the staff. If that happens and a guy like Lynn and Santana or Pineda become the #2, #3, 4 types they then have a real shot at accomplishing something.

Edited by Twodogs, 13 July 2017 - 11:26 AM.

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