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Article: The First Half Of The Twins Core Four

miguel sano jose berrios max kepler byron buxton jorge polanco
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#21 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 July 2017 - 04:19 PM

Here is the thing: Buxton is right on top of the league in SB success, but right in the middle of the pack in attempting to steal.

Career numbers:

Buxton: 146 Opportunities (*) (H+BB-2B-3B-HR), 28 SB, 5 CS, 33 attempts, 22.6% attempt, 87.5 % SB success

Hamilton: 460 opp , 222 SB, 45 SB, 267 att, 58% attempt, 83.1 % SB success
Dyson 465 Opp, 196 SB, 35 CS, 231 att, 49.6% attempt, 84.8% success
Turner: 171 opp, 70 SB, 14 CS, 84 att, 49.1% attempt, 83.3 % SB success
Gordon: 724 Opp, 250 SB, 71 CS, 321 att, 44.3% attempt, 77.9% SB success
Broxton: 125 opp, 41 SB, 10 CS,51 att, 40% attempt, 80.3% SB success


Andrus 1486 Opp, 261 SB, 90 CS, 351 att, 23.6% attempt, 74.4% SB success
Maybin: 839 Opp, 156 SB, 39 CS, 194 att, 23.1% attempt, 80.4% success
Betts: 488 Opp, 69 SB, 15 CS, 84 att, 17.2% attempt, 82.1% SB success
J. Ramirez: 394 Opp, 52 SB, 17 CS, 69 att, 17.5% attempt, 75.3% SB success

Billy Hamilton goes for it 60% of the time he has an opportunity. Dyson and Trea Turner about half of the time. And Buxton is much more effective base stealer. He tries to steal at the rate of Elvis Andrus who is a pretty horrible base stealer. His attempts have to be close to 50% for the kind of speed he has.

(*) The calculation of "opportunities" is ballpark and simplified, because it does not reflect the number of times the base ahead of him was occupied. By subtracting double (which is an opportunity to steal third) and not adding HBP, I kinda balance the two. Just looking for a quick way of calculating.


Where do the Twins rank among teams in attempts per opportunity?
Is it possible that his lack of aggressiveness is a reflection of the team philosophy?

#22 Thrylos

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Posted 11 July 2017 - 04:24 PM

 

Where do the Twins rank among teams in attempts per opportunity?
Is it possible that his lack of aggressiveness is a reflection of the team philosophy?

 

I suspect that Molitor is part of the reason here. Looking at teams attempts/opportunity will not get you anywhere, because the Twins have at least a few non threats (Mauer, Vargas, Sano etc.)  Interestingly enough, the Twins are tied for 9th in SB in the majors FWIW

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#23 adorduan

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Posted 11 July 2017 - 05:07 PM

Why is everyone in such a hurry to dump Rosario  for Granite? I don't get it. We don't have a clue if Granite can hit at the MLB level yet.

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#24 adorduan

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Posted 11 July 2017 - 05:09 PM

 

Over the last two seasons Buxton has 26 steals and has been caught 3 times. Not sure anyone can be more efficient than that. He will steal bigger numbers when/if he gets on base with greater regularity.

That's kind of a big if at this point.

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#25 goulik

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Posted 11 July 2017 - 10:42 PM

Why is everyone in such a hurry to dump Rosario  for Granite? I don't get it. We don't have a clue if Granite can hit at the MLB level yet.


I completely get this response and tend to agree but Granite has forced his way up and now we need to make room for him possibly permanently. If he proves he can hit MLB pitching, Trading Rosario is one option and the other is trading Grossman. With our need for so many pitchers in the BP, we cannot afford 5 outfielders can we?

#26 HitInAPinch

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 01:30 AM

 

We have Mauer, Dozier, Grossman, Castro, Belisle, Santana, Breslow - that is enough veteran presence.  Lets just concentrate on bringing up more youth.  

How about if I changed that to "talented veteran or 2"?   

It's not my fault !


#27 yarnivek1972

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 05:34 AM

Here is the thing: Buxton is right on top of the league in SB success, but right in the middle of the pack in attempting to steal.

Career numbers:

Buxton: 146 Opportunities (*) (H+BB-2B-3B-HR), 28 SB, 5 CS, 33 attempts, 22.6% attempt, 87.5 % SB success

Hamilton: 460 opp , 222 SB, 45 SB, 267 att, 58% attempt, 83.1 % SB success
Dyson 465 Opp, 196 SB, 35 CS, 231 att, 49.6% attempt, 84.8% success
Turner: 171 opp, 70 SB, 14 CS, 84 att, 49.1% attempt, 83.3 % SB success
Gordon: 724 Opp, 250 SB, 71 CS, 321 att, 44.3% attempt, 77.9% SB success
Broxton: 125 opp, 41 SB, 10 CS,51 att, 40% attempt, 80.3% SB success


Andrus 1486 Opp, 261 SB, 90 CS, 351 att, 23.6% attempt, 74.4% SB success
Maybin: 839 Opp, 156 SB, 39 CS, 194 att, 23.1% attempt, 80.4% success
Betts: 488 Opp, 69 SB, 15 CS, 84 att, 17.2% attempt, 82.1% SB success
J. Ramirez: 394 Opp, 52 SB, 17 CS, 69 att, 17.5% attempt, 75.3% SB success

Billy Hamilton goes for it 60% of the time he has an opportunity. Dyson and Trea Turner about half of the time. And Buxton is much more effective base stealer. He tries to steal at the rate of Elvis Andrus who is a pretty horrible base stealer. His attempts have to be close to 50% for the kind of speed he has.

(*) The calculation of "opportunities" is ballpark and simplified, because it does not reflect the number of times the base ahead of him was occupied. By subtracting double (which is an opportunity to steal third) and not adding HBP, I kinda balance the two. Just looking for a quick way of calculating.


Another item your "opportunities" number doesn't take into account is that Buxton has gotten on base at a slightly better rate vs lhp, which are much harder to steal off of.

#28 dbminn

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 07:15 AM

 

I completely get this response and tend to agree but Granite has forced his way up and now we need to make room for him possibly permanently. If he proves he can hit MLB pitching, Trading Rosario is one option and the other is trading Grossman. With our need for so many pitchers in the BP, we cannot afford 5 outfielders can we?

 

There is room for all five, at least for this season. There is no other depth at AAA if someone gets injured. All of the top teams have depth. They're giving Garver some time in the OF at AAA but he's not a full-time solution.

 

In the meantime, Rosario has been very good since May 1 - .295/.338/.497. His K Rate has been down all season (19%). He still hasn't reached his peak, IMO. Granite is a superior fielder but we won't know if he can hit MLB pitching for a while (months, not weeks). 

 

If they do make a deadline trade, I'd rather see Grossman go than Rosario. Grossman has value as a bat for a contender and Vargas can hold down DH with Garver as a second option.

Edited by dbminn, 12 July 2017 - 07:16 AM.

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#29 JLease

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 10:58 AM

 

Why is everyone in such a hurry to dump Rosario  for Granite? I don't get it. We don't have a clue if Granite can hit at the MLB level yet.

 

It's not so much about dumping Rosario for Granite as being ok with Granite getting a chance at the job. Rosario has more pop in his bat, but hasn't shown any consistent ability to control the strike zone so until this recent run has not been able to put up the OBP that you need in a MLB hitter. Granite has shown the ability to hit for average and does control the strike zone in the minors, and his defense is superior. Let the battle begin: whomever can perform more consistently towards the peak of their ability gets the starting job!


#30 goulik

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 11:57 AM

There is room for all five, at least for this season. There is no other depth at AAA if someone gets injured. All of the top teams have depth. They're giving Garver some time in the OF at AAA but he's not a full-time solution.
 
In the meantime, Rosario has been very good since May 1 - .295/.338/.497. His K Rate has been down all season (19%). He still hasn't reached his peak, IMO. Granite is a superior fielder but we won't know if he can hit MLB pitching for a while (months, not weeks). 
 
If they do make a deadline trade, I'd rather see Grossman go than Rosario. Grossman has value as a bat for a contender and Vargas can hold down DH with Garver as a second option.


Agree in a perfect world but our biggest trade chips are MLB or close to MLB ready players if we're going to trade for starting pitching. We're going to have to be ok with trading Polanco or Gordon and one of the OF if talks are even gonna start
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#31 jimmer

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 11:57 AM

It's not so much about dumping Rosario for Granite as being ok with Granite getting a chance at the job. Rosario has more pop in his bat, but hasn't shown any consistent ability to control the strike zone so until this recent run has not been able to put up the OBP that you need in a MLB hitter. Granite has shown the ability to hit for average and does control the strike zone in the minors, and his defense is superior. Let the battle begin: whomever can perform more consistently towards the peak of their ability gets the starting job!

or we could search for a legimate MLB starting caliber corner OF instead of picking between two guys who are pretty much 4th OF talent.
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#32 dbminn

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 01:57 PM

 

Agree in a perfect world but our biggest trade chips are MLB or close to MLB ready players if we're going to trade for starting pitching. We're going to have to be ok with trading Polanco or Gordon and one of the OF if talks are even gonna start

 

Agreed. I was responding more to the idea that Rosario can be traded because he is blocking Granite. 

 

I'd be ok with moving Polanco or Gordon and other prospects if the Twins go after a Sonny Gray-type. Gotta give up something to get a talented SP. Esco can handle SS if Polanco is traded. But if the Twins trade Rosario mid-season they would be left with a rookie LF and no depth to cover injuries.

 

If they have to add Rosario to get a deal done, so be it. But there is a good chance it would be a step back for the rest of this season. I'd rather give up Polanco/MiLB prospects or wait until the end of the season to make a big trade for a SP. The Twins will have a better idea about Granite after a few months in the majors.

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#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 02:12 PM

 

Agreed. I was responding more to the idea that Rosario can be traded because he is blocking Granite. 

 

I'd be ok with moving Polanco or Gordon and other prospects if the Twins go after a Sonny Gray-type. Gotta give up something to get a talented SP. Esco can handle SS if Polanco is traded. But if the Twins trade Rosario mid-season they would be left with a rookie LF and no depth to cover injuries.

 

If they have to add Rosario to get a deal done, so be it. But there is a good chance it would be a step back for the rest of this season. I'd rather give up Polanco/MiLB prospects or wait until the end of the season to make a big trade for a SP. The Twins will have a better idea about Granite after a few months in the majors.

 

You think Granite is up to stay?

 

i'd guess he was promoted very temporarily, and when they need a 5th starter, he's gone again. The Twins, imo, were wise to send down a SP that just pitched, and call up someone that could help right before and right after the ASB, but I expect it to be a short lived promotion, no matter how he plays.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#34 dbminn

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 02:29 PM

 

You think Granite is up to stay?

 

i'd guess he was promoted very temporarily, and when they need a 5th starter, he's gone again. The Twins, imo, were wise to send down a SP that just pitched, and call up someone that could help right before and right after the ASB, but I expect it to be a short lived promotion, no matter how he plays.

 

I agree with you Mike. I think Granite will spend more time in the minors. IMHO, the only way he stays all year is because of injury or trade. I just didn't want to stir the pot too much.

 

 

Edited by dbminn, 12 July 2017 - 02:33 PM.


#35 old nurse

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:06 AM

 

I suspect that Molitor is part of the reason here. Looking at teams attempts/opportunity will not get you anywhere, because the Twins have at least a few non threats (Mauer, Vargas, Sano etc.)  Interestingly enough, the Twins are tied for 9th in SB in the majors FWIW

If the Twins ae 9th in the league in base stealing with such noted speedsters as Castro, Escobar, Gimmenez, Grossman,Mauer, Sano and Vargasin the lineup I would hardly think Mauer is the blame. from pregame blurbs on the radio, Mauer is well aware of his player's chances for stealing.


#36 old nurse

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:19 AM

 

Why is everyone in such a hurry to dump Rosario  for Granite? I don't get it. We don't have a clue if Granite can hit at the MLB level yet.

This is now the third year of Rosario being up in the majors.The shiny newness has worn off. Good but not not great, he becomes expendable in people's eyes. That changes when the 28 year old figures things out and becomes a monster.




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