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Article: Deadline Primer: Are Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

ervin santana brandon kintzler
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#141 Pardon My Dinger

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Posted 16 July 2017 - 07:13 PM

I'm torn right now, because I think Dozier and Ervin are ready to carry this team to a postseason birth over the next two months.

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#142 LaBombo

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Posted 16 July 2017 - 08:05 PM

 

They need that starter for next year, too. Why not get one now?

Run differential means zero going forward, btw. They don't reset the W/l record at the AS break to "what it should have been."

 

Not only does the idea of a good trade for a starting pitcher not bother me at all, it now seems almost unavoidable to me if the Twins want to field a competitive rotation in 2018.

 

But my concern is that a trade made at the deadline will come with the kind of high cost and limited selection that you usually expect from multiple trades that happen during a short timeframe in a seller's market.

 

Trading away significantly more assets or settling for less of a pitcher than in an otherwise comparable offseason deal in order to 'get someone now' to help contend seems to me like it could be a step backward in the Twins' effort to play postseason baseball, even if that pitcher were signed through 2018.

 

As for run differential, it looks like its predictive value at any given point in a season depends on who you believe. It seems like the majority of the BProp/Fangraphs/etc stuff tends to lean towards 70 games or so as a tipping point at which run differential becomes a good predictive tool for the W/L performance of a team over the rest of the season. At 90 games it takes a lot to break free of the wins & losses trajectory that previous run differential has put a team on for the rest of the way.

 

On the other hand, if FalLeviney are smarter than run differential about the Twins' competitiveness the rest of the way and can get a '2018 or beyond' guy that they really like, before the deadline and without overpaying significantly for the last two months of his 2017, well, have at it, boys, and let's go kick some third order win percentage butt!

Edited by LaBombo, 16 July 2017 - 08:31 PM.

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#143 yarnivek1972

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Posted 17 July 2017 - 07:30 PM

Would the Yankees have interest in Vargas or Park? Either would likely be an upgrade. Probably just get Jim's favorite return in trade: $$$

#144 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 07:34 AM

As for run differential, it looks like its predictive value at any given point in a season depends on who you believe.

Raw run differential seems like a noisy data set to draw conclusions from.

 

Anecdotally, our manager has thrown his few good bullpen assets into the games that look winnable, and let the rest of the relievers try to establish themselves during garbage time. This has had the effect of turning 6-2 deficits into 11-4 losses, which hurts run differential but not the standings.

 

A team like ours with one or two reliable starters and two or three reliable relievers might be the outlier for analysis by differential.

 

Granted, such run differential does indeed indicate the talent level of the entire roster as it stands (minus the dregs who have already been discarded), but might not provide guidance or may even mask how much good it would do to eliminate a couple of low performers. We're still on the low part of the S-shaped curve of wins versus talent.

 

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#145 olivia11

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 07:52 AM

I'm all for moving Dozier, Santana, Kintzler for the right deal.  But, is Dozier even tradable at this point? I'm qualifying "tradable" as where the projected value coming in would potentially exceed Dozier's value to the Twins over the next two years (and/or the chance that he has a crazy second half and can be moved over the off-season for a better package). 

 

So, serious question.  If Dozier for De Leon straight up (or pretty much straight up) wasn't enough, is there a team out there that is a 2nd baseman away from the playoffs who will give up more than De Leon?  I don't think I'd trade him for less than a top 100 prospect plus taking a flyer on at least one intriguing player (someone like a Lewin Diaz or a Jermaine Palacios in the Twins system).  Is there a team out there who would offer that right now?  

Edited by olivia11, 18 July 2017 - 07:52 AM.

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#146 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 07:59 AM

 

I'm all for moving Dozier, Santana, Kintzler for the right deal.  But, is Dozier even tradable at this point? I'm qualifying "tradable" as where the projected value coming in would potentially exceed Dozier's value to the Twins over the next two years (and/or the chance that he has a crazy second half and can be moved over the off-season for a better package). 

 

So, serious question.  If Dozier for De Leon straight up (or pretty much straight up) wasn't enough, is there a team out there that is a 2nd baseman away from the playoffs who will give up more than De Leon?  I don't think I'd trade him for less than a top 100 prospect plus taking a flyer on at least one intriguing player (someone like a Lewin Diaz or a Jermaine Palacios in the Twins system).  Is there a team out there who would offer that right now?  

 

The short answer, no. 

The long answer, no. Dozier had a career year last year and only the Dodgers were interested in potentially trading for him. There hasn't been any significant injuries to 2B across baseball, and Dozier's numbers have predictably fallen back to Earth. Honestly I think the Twins are stuck with him until his contract runs out. Or they decide to trade him for a lesser prospect during the last year of his contract. 

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#147 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 10:45 AM

The short answer, no.

The long answer, no. Dozier had a career year last year and only the Dodgers were interested in potentially trading for him. There hasn't been any significant injuries to 2B across baseball, and Dozier's numbers have predictably fallen back to Earth. Honestly I think the Twins are stuck with him until his contract runs out. Or they decide to trade him for a lesser prospect during the last year of his contract.


I would have done the deal straight up for DeLeon.
Said that at the time too, so that's not in retrospect of Dozier crashing back to earth.
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#148 USAFChief

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 12:13 PM

Dozier weighs in:

 

http://www.startribu...rs/435092943/#1

 

I agree.  It's the right thing to do on it's own merits, plus there is no guarantee some better time to add will magically materialize in the future.

 

 

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#149 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 12:16 PM

 

Dozier weighs in:

 

http://www.startribu...rs/435092943/#1

 

I agree.  It's the right thing to do on it's own merits, plus there is no guarantee some better time to add will magically materialize in the future.

 

Concur 100%. I don't know how Falvey and Levine could walk down to the clubhouse if they decide to sell off players for the future while this team is competitive. It would send a horrible message to the young players, coaching staff, and fans. 

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#150 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 12:23 PM

 

Dozier weighs in:

 

http://www.startribu...rs/435092943/#1

 

I agree.  It's the right thing to do on it's own merits, plus there is no guarantee some better time to add will magically materialize in the future.

 

Has any player publicly said "we need to rebuild", ever? Are players the best judges of how to run a team? I mean, I get it, and I sympathize......but I trust the FO a bit more than a player on this topic. Heck, I probably trust a decent number of fans more than a player on this particular topic.

 

do people really think this team has a chance to "do something special"? 

 

To me, they'd need to add:

1 SP as good as Santana or better

2 RP as good as Rogers or whomever you want to call "really, really, really good"

a DH

a SS that can hit (whether that is Polanco or Escobar producing, or getting one)

 

then, maybe, you can really believe. But, that's a tall order. And, it might not work still. How much are you willing to pay to do this, given that there are this many questions, and questions about Mejia and Berrios and Santana being good or not (and Dozier and Santana being gone in 1-2 years)?

 

That's why Falvine make so much money.....hard questions.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#151 USAFChief

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 12:28 PM

 

Has any player publicly said "we need to rebuild", ever? Are players the best judges of how to run a team? I mean, I get it, and I sympathize......but I trust the FO a bit more than a player on this topic. Heck, I probably trust a decent number of fans more than a player on this particular topic.

 

do people really think this team has a chance to "do something special"? 

 

To me, they'd need to add:

1 SP as good as Santana or better

2 RP as good as Rogers or whomever you want to call "really, really, really good"

a DH

a SS that can hit (whether that is Polanco or Escobar producing, or getting one)

 

then, maybe, you can really believe. But, that's a tall order. And, it might not work still. How much are you willing to pay to do this, given that there are this many questions, and questions about Mejia and Berrios and Santana being good or not (and Dozier and Santana being gone in 1-2 years)?

 

That's why Falvine make so much money.....hard questions.

I don't agree it's a hard question.  

 

In fact, it's easy.  They're in contention, for both the division and the WC.  The season is half over.  Cleveland isn't some juggernaut (or at least hasn't played like one), and there aren't several strong teams that need to be beaten for the WC.  

 

Find some help.  Now.  

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#152 drjim

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 12:36 PM

 

I don't agree it's a hard question.  

 

In fact, it's easy.  They're in contention, for both the division and the WC.  The season is half over.  Cleveland isn't some juggernaut (or at least hasn't played like one), and there aren't several strong teams that need to be beaten for the WC.  

 

Find some help.  Now.  

 

There's a handful of guys you wouldn't want to trade for a rental, but other than that, I'm on board with this.

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#153 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 12:36 PM

 

I don't agree it's a hard question.  

 

In fact, it's easy.  They're in contention, for both the division and the WC.  The season is half over.  Cleveland isn't some juggernaut (or at least hasn't played like one), and there aren't several strong teams that need to be beaten for the WC.  

 

Find some help.  Now.  

 

"find some help" meaning what? How much? At what price?

 

Sure, trade off prospects the FO doesn't believe in. NP. Start trading off legit pieces for the small chance you "do something special"? Um, that's different.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#154 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 12:43 PM

At this point, especially with RP, the team's needing 20-25 good innings from them in the regular season. Hopefully Falvey finds a diamond in the rough and trades a non-essential prospect to acquire them.

 

Dave Cameron on Fangraphs suggests some guy named Danny Barnes from the Blue Jays as a sneaky trade piece.  

 

As far as a SP, ideally a controllable pitcher beyond this year. But, if they can trade a prospect they don't believe in for a rental, maybe that could help too. 


#155 spinowner

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 01:48 PM

 

...there aren't several strong teams that need to be beaten for the WC.   

I (and, I suspect, many others) have a different definition of strong than you do. I rate the Astros, Dodgers and Nats all very strong with Arizona, Colorado and Boston close behind. I think six out of thirty is more than several.

Edited by spinowner, 18 July 2017 - 01:49 PM.

eiπ + 1 = 0


#156 USAFChief

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 02:00 PM

 

I (and, I suspect, many others) have a different definition of strong than you do. I rate the Astros, Dodgers and Nats all very strong with Arizona, Colorado and Boston close behind. I think six out of thirty is more than several.

"WC" = Wild Card.

 

Dodgers, Nats, AZ, and Colorado are N/A.  I don't expect the Astros or Red Sox to be WC competition.

 

to be more clear...there aren't several strong AL teams that will need to be beaten to grab one of the two WC spots.

 

 

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#157 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 02:00 PM

 

I (and, I suspect, many others) have a different definition of strong than you do. I rate the Astros, Dodgers and Nats all very strong with Arizona, Colorado and Boston close behind. I think six out of thirty is more than several.

 

You named 2 AL teams, and only the Astros are clear division winners. Chief was talking about the AL Wildcard, which currently has 5-6 teams around .500 competing for 2 spots. 

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#158 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 03:21 PM

 

"find some help" meaning what? How much? At what price?

 

Sure, trade off prospects the FO doesn't believe in. NP. Start trading off legit pieces for the small chance you "do something special"? Um, that's different.

 

I did not bother to hit like because "like" is not adequate".The view we should buy because we are in contention is a very parochial point of view. Look at the various predictions of the odds of the Twins winning the division of for that matter a wildcard, keeping in mind that winning the wild card means a 50/50 shot at a playoff series.Then, even if we made the playoffs, this team is not a threat to go deep in the playoffs.Therefore mortgaging or even missing the opportunity to add the pieces we need to be a contender is foolish.

 

If they can get a premium for Santana, Dozier or Kintzler, I hope these guys have the stones to do whats right to actually build a contender instead of the pretender we have now. Pay the money to replace ES with free agent that will be here as this team develops into a true contender.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 18 July 2017 - 03:22 PM.

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#159 yarnivek1972

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 07:09 PM

Carlos Correa just hit the DL for Houston. Expected to miss 6-8 weeks, essentially almost all of the remainder of the regular season. Escobar? If the Twins start dropping.

#160 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2017 - 08:46 PM

Carlos Correa just hit the DL for Houston. Expected to miss 6-8 weeks, essentially almost all of the remainder of the regular season. Escobar? If the Twins start dropping.


Escobar doesn't play SS anymore.



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