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Article: Deadline Primer: Are Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

ervin santana brandon kintzler
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#41 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:43 AM

We need Drew Carey (or Bob Barker for us older guys) to join the Twins front office and play "Let's Make A Deal." This current team making it far (if at all) in the playoffs is just a dream so let's get working on 2018 and beyond. Trade bait: Santana and Kintzler from the pitching core. Rosario, Grossman, Dozier, Escobar, and Polanco from the hitters. If Drew or Bob can make a deal with any or all of these components which brings back young, controllable, valuable assets for 2018 and beyond, then make the deal. Otherwise, wait this out and work on improvement in the off season. Please just don't give up future assets for a short-term fix hoping to win this year.
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#42 Craig Arko

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:57 AM

 

We need Drew Carey (or Bob Barker for us older guys) to join the Twins front office and play "Let's Make A Deal." This current team making it far (if at all) in the playoffs is just a dream so let's get working on 2018 and beyond. Trade bait: Santana and Kintzler from the pitching core. Rosario, Grossman, Dozier, Escobar, and Polanco from the hitters. If Drew or Bob can make a deal with any or all of these components which brings back young, controllable, valuable assets for 2018 and beyond, then make the deal. Otherwise, wait this out and work on improvement in the off season. Please just don't give up future assets for a short-term fix hoping to win this year.

Monty Hall, not Bob Barker.

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#43 jorgenswest

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 09:04 AM

Kintzler is a free agent after this year. Dozier, Escobar and possibly Santana after next year. They might be sold.

The remaining trade assets are under control for several years. I wouldn't trade Polanco unless the return has a similar number of years of team control.

I think they are sellers but the only asset they must sell is Kintzler. The only other reasonable option with him is a one year extension. He is 32. For many relievers the shift from useful to liability is abrupt. The Twins needs to be on a one year commitment when that happens to Kintzler.
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#44 clutchhittin18

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 09:36 AM

 

WOW!  That's a bold prediction if i may say so.  Not saying right or wrong, just bold.  

 

Getting back to the buyers vs. sellers, I don't think the Twins are either at this point. Falvey has hinted they aren't going to mortgage the teams future on rentals to try and sneak into the post season. They might add a couple of minuscule bullpen pieces but nothing major IMO.  

 

That said, I still think they should explore moving Dozier and Santana, for the right price that is.  However, Dozier is certainly not helping matters and is having a DOWN season ( surprise surprise), and his trade value has shrunk considerably from last season.  While i hate to give up Santana he is probably the most valuable trade chip right now and the AStros need pitching help right now after some starting staff injuries.  Could be a good fit there and they have a deep farm system right now.  Explore that for sure. 

 

The only other thing i can think of is see what Oakland wants for Sonny Gray.  His is having a decent 2017 season so far averaging 9.1 strikeouts per K9 which would push him ahead of Berrios K/9.  A's are looking for outfielders which we have in abundance.  Two options Rosario, Granite or Buxton, Granite + Wade or pitching prospect not Romero or Gonsalves.  

 

Anyhow, two things I look forward too this offseason.  Santiago let go (thank god) along with Scaredy Cat Meow Mix Nibbler Gibson.  Both guys have mental fortitude issues and they can cut bait with them with no strings attached.  Beyond that i have no idea what happens.  Hughes is still with us till 2020 and Joe through next season.  After that plenty of cash to go after free agents.

 

In the meantime they should be auditioning Jorge, Romero and Gonsalves now, not next season.  If any of these options hit the ground running, give em a mile long leash and let em RUN!  

I'm in the bucket of wait and see as well.  I'm not about shopping all our guys, but I would certainly be looking at a couple of teams and see if they have any interest.  The Astros are a good pick to look at for Santana, but I would also throw out the Yankees.  They have been struggling of late, especially with pitching.  A guy I could see targeted is Justus Sheffield.  Former first round pick of the Indians that came over in the Miller trade.  He's not the Yankees top pitching prospect (according to MLB), and he is having a nice season in AA (7-5, 3.09 ERA).

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#45 birddog

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 09:39 AM

The only thing we all agree upon is what a tough job our admin has. I hope they know now what we have in our system and can use our scarce strengths to overcome our pitching weakness. Any trade will be painful as we have to give up to get.

 

I hate the thought of trading Buxton even though I loved watching Granite in CF yesterday. I do believe Buxton will hit for average and power very soon and he makes our pitchers much better. I like Granite as a replacement for Grossman. He is a much better OF and will hit for a high average with OBP over 40%. I like Rosario but think he is expendable and might bring a decent pitching prospect. Please don't trade Kepler or Santana. Hope that Colon is decent enough to be traded (not holding my breath by any means) and maybe someone would want one of our catchers as Garver looks MLB ready. It's not like we have much to give up so Gonsalves and Fernando should be up sometime in the second half.

 

I love our start so far, but don't expect to remain contenders much longer. I hope Falvey and Levine can make the right decisions, but no way will they make us all happy no matter what they do.

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#46 SwainZag

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 09:39 AM

 

There isn't much question in my mind:  Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be looking to add talent to the MLB and MiLB rosters.  And I'm reasonably sure the bait will be Buxton.

 

I keep looking at those videos of Buxton's "highlight reel" catches.  The one where he's running in, that's a great catch.  The one's going towards the wall, dumb luck.  Look closely at what Zack Granite does.  Granite tracks the ball the entire time it's in the air, even as he hits the wall.  No slamming into the wall, like Buxton.

 

To me, the Zack Granite audition is a prelude to trading Buxton.  Let someone else work that development.  And, no, I'm not worried about Buxton developing into a legit All Star.  Twins need better prospects for the future as a team.

 

I am all for Granite getting a shot at the major leagues, but are you serious?  Not only does Granite not have near the tools that Buxton has, he's a year older!  Buxton currently leads the majors in defensive WAR, and you are going to chalk it up to dumb luck?  Granite made a really nice catch yesterday, but this just blows my mind.  

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#47 Doomtints

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 09:42 AM

 

I am all for Granite getting a shot at the major leagues, but are you serious?  Not only does Granite not have near the tools that Buxton has, he's a year older!  Buxton currently leads the majors in defensive WAR, and you are going to chalk it up to dumb luck?  Granite made a really nice catch yesterday, but this just blows my mind.  

 

I agree. Would yesterday's loss had been as bad if Buxton had been out there? Could the Twins have won?

I'm perplexed as to why Molitor would have anyone other than Buxton out there behind the Twins #3-#5 starters! This isn't the first time.

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#48 dbminn

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 09:44 AM

I wouldn't trade prospects at the deadline for a short-term pitcher even if the Twins stay in the race. The premium will be too high. I'd continue to keep an eye out for veteran SP/RP that might be salvaged.

 

There are a few players that could be traded if the Twins fall back. Utility players are usually in demand so Escobar could bring back extra mid-season value. Same with professional hitters. I could see Grossman traded at a premium as well. Grossman and Escobar are under 30 years old and relatively cheap. They could help the Twins if they make a serious run next year. I'd only trade them if we get near-ready pitching in return.

 

Gimenez might have value if a contender loses a C to injury. He's kind of a favorite of mine but Garver is ready to step up.

 

Santana and Kintzler are in demand but the Twins are already short on pitching. I think the Twins can contend next year so I'd only trade them this mid-season at a very high premium. Sign Kintzler for two years, if necessary. 

 

Bigger trades can be made in the offseason. The Twins may have to trade a young OF, Gordon and/or some of the very young prospects to get a controllable SP. Or maybe they could open the Pohlad pocketbook and sign FA Tyler Chatwood (28 years old).  

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#49 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 10:45 AM

 

...

I like Granite as a replacement for Grossman. He is a much better OF and will hit for a high average with OBP over 40%.

...

I temper my optimism perhaps too much, but at this point in time there are only 3 players in the American League with an OBP >= 40%.

I hope good things for Granite.

Expectations set too high insist on a perceived result of 'BUST'.

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#50 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 11:05 AM

It seems very unlikely to me that the Twins fall into either the "Buyer" or Seller"  category with any sort of vengeance. The potential internal harm from a sell of is too great and this team just isn't one or two guys away from a true contender. They need roughly half a pitching staff to go with the half we have now. 

 

I think we'll see more of the same in the second half - tryouts for AAA guys or other team's castoffs to see what we have and set up the offseason. I think that's why Granite is up now - to see if he could be the 4th OF and allow the team to either trade Grossman or Vargas as part of a package or move on from one or the other after this year. Garver will get a shot, too. Hard to say if any of the starting pitchers will get a try although I would like to see Hurlbut and SLegers get a shot if for no other reason than to see what we have there. 

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#51 Willihammer

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 11:07 AM

 

There isn't much question in my mind:  Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be looking to add talent to the MLB and MiLB rosters.  And I'm reasonably sure the bait will be Buxton.

 

I keep looking at those videos of Buxton's "highlight reel" catches.  The one where he's running in, that's a great catch.  The one's going towards the wall, dumb luck.  Look closely at what Zack Granite does.  Granite tracks the ball the entire time it's in the air, even as he hits the wall.  No slamming into the wall, like Buxton.

 

To me, the Zack Granite audition is a prelude to trading Buxton.  Let someone else work that development.  And, no, I'm not worried about Buxton developing into a legit All Star.  Twins need better prospects for the future as a team.

I think this is a definite possibility. Looking ahead to the FA class, there are a good number of RH hitting outfielders - Lorenzo Cain, JD Martinez, Bautista, Eric Young Jr, Colby Rasmus, etc. who could be reasonably cheap upgrades. If Buxton + prospect package could bring back a controlled starter, I think you pull the trigger on that for sure, assuming Granite doesn't totally fall on his face defensively.

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#52 spinowner

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 11:12 AM

 

To me, the Zack Granite audition is a prelude to trading Buxton.

Strongly disagree. I think it's more likely that the Zack Granite call-up was: a.) a reward for having a good minor league season, b.) a chance to give Buxton an extra day off heading into the break and c.) a prelude to trading Granite, Grossman or Rosario. 

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#53 Tomj14

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 11:47 AM

 

The only thing we all agree upon is what a tough job our admin has. I hope they know now what we have in our system and can use our scarce strengths to overcome our pitching weakness. Any trade will be painful as we have to give up to get.

 

I hate the thought of trading Buxton even though I loved watching Granite in CF yesterday. I do believe Buxton will hit for average and power very soon and he makes our pitchers much better. I like Granite as a replacement for Grossman. He is a much better OF and will hit for a high average with OBP over 40%. I like Rosario but think he is expendable and might bring a decent pitching prospect. Please don't trade Kepler or Santana. Hope that Colon is decent enough to be traded (not holding my breath by any means) and maybe someone would want one of our catchers as Garver looks MLB ready. It's not like we have much to give up so Gonsalves and Fernando should be up sometime in the second half.

 

I love our start so far, but don't expect to remain contenders much longer. I hope Falvey and Levine can make the right decisions, but no way will they make us all happy no matter what they do.

Zach Granite minor league stats (over 1500 at bats) OBP is .359 and he going to have it at or over .400 in the majors? Man I sure hope so, but that might be aiming a bit high. Keplers was .363 in the minors and is sitting at .320 in the majors, Rosario's was .340 and is at .300 in the majors, but were considered much better prospects, but like I said I hope you are right.

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#54 Tomj14

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 12:01 PM

After reading some of the comments, it looks like most want to trade and give away 2017 and 2018.

 

Players people are talking about trading, Dozier, Santana, Buxton, Rosario, Grossman.

Leaving a lineup next year of

c - castro

1b- Mauer

2b - Polanco

ss - Gordon (0 big league at bats)

3b - Sano

lf - ?

cf - Granite (4 big league at bats)

rf - Kepler

DH - Vargas

 

SP - Berrios

SP - Meija

SP - Gibson

SP - ?

SP - ?

 

So unless those trades bring immediate big league help, we go into next year much worse off than this year and looking at FA to fill holes and little to no depth again in starting pitchers.

 

We already have a pretty crowded 40 man roster. I could see trading Santana if our big 2 minor league pitchers were already here and showing signs of a good future but right now they are just wildcards. 

IMO if someone is willing to over pay we trade, and we try trading a few of prospects for close to ready or already in the majors starting pitchers. Think about this how many of our top 12 or so prospects are going to have even a decent major league career, the odds say very few.

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#55 jorgenswest

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 12:11 PM

Sam Fuld had a .379 OBP throughout three seasons in the minors at the time he hit the majors. It didn't translate well to the majors because it wasn't backed up by ISO. He even had an AZFL split of 402/492/696 in 126 PAs.

How different in skills is Zach Granite from Sam Fuld?
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#56 Shaitan

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 12:15 PM

You don't rebuild by trading your youngest players, even if they aren't performing.

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#57 Thrylos

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 12:20 PM

I have not change my mind on this.I think that the Twins should be both buyers and sellers and make adjustments that can help them both in 2017 and in the long run.

 

Things I would do: 

 

-I would knock on the Pirates' door to see whether Buxton (.663 OPS last month) can fetch Starling Marte (28 and under team control until age 32 season in a reasonable contract and the last 2 seasons with team options) and Felipe Rivero (25 and under team control for 4 seasons). That will give the Twins a gold glove CF and lead of option who actually gets on base and steals some, and a real closer.

 

-I would knock on the Yankees' door to see whether Santana (5.34 ERA last month) can fetch Jordan Montgomery (24, 6 seasons of team control) and Giovanny Gallegos. (25, 6 seasons of team control).Montgomery jumps into Santana's spot in the rotation and Gallegos at the set up role.

 

- I would knock on Milwaukee's door to see whether Dozier (.645 OPS last month) can fetch someone like Corbin Burnes (22) and Freddy Peralta. (21).Both of those guys go to AA and Nick Gordon comes up to replace Dozier as the Twins' second baseman

 

- Go for a rental starter that will not cost an arm and a leg.Matt Moore (28) might be an interesting target there, since he can be a free agent after this season and has 2 team options.Change of a scenery guy that might just take another change of a scenery guy (Santiago) to get him.

 

- Sell High on Kintzler and get the best prospect package you can get.

 

That will give the Twins a rotation of Berrios, Montgomery, Mejia, Moore, Gibson, a lineup of Marte, Mauer, Sano, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Castro, Gordon, and a pen of Rivero, Gallegos, Rogers, Hughes, Duffey and two rotating pieces with the minors. The pen and the lineup will be a definite improvement and the rotation a likely improvement esp. with short leash on Gibson and Moore who both have options.

Edited by Thrylos, 10 July 2017 - 12:27 PM.

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#58 70charger

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 12:31 PM

 

It's entirely possible that the Twins find themselves well below .500 after running through this gauntlet. At that point, the decision sort of makes itself. So really, if the players in this group want to make a push, they hold their destiny in their own hands.

 

This is the key to the whole article. Personally, I find it less than likely that they make it through the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers with a winning record. 

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#59 Deduno Abides

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 12:51 PM

And don't try to bring up the 1987 Twins as an example of what could happen.


Also, the '87 team was simply a better team. I like Santana and Berrios, but neither is as good as Viola was and they both may be, at best, peers with '87 Blyleven. I like Sano, but neither he nor anyone else approaches Puckett, much less Gaetti or Hrbek. Finally, Kintzler and Rogers are pretty good, but Reardon and Berenguer would be preferred by most. The comparison holds for non-stars, e.g., Brunansky > Kepler and Gagne > Polanco. In the future, Sano, Berrios, Buxton and others could be as good as the '87 stars, but not yet.
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#60 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 12:59 PM

I would argue that you could set yourself up for 2018 but trading Dozier for a pitcher that is ready now.Might be a kid in AAA. That may be a wash in 2017, but a win for 2018.

 

I don't see how trading Santana would be a win for 2018.




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