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Article: Deadline Primer: Are Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

ervin santana brandon kintzler
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174 replies to this topic

#21 gman

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 05:48 AM

I hope the team is and has been shopping players like Santana, Dozier et al. I also hope Falvey and Levine are too smart to shop Rosario like some on this website are constantly preaching.

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#22 rdehring

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 06:34 AM

Buyers vs. sellers...it doesn't have to be one or the other.

They have some parts that can be replaced internally. Listening about trading those parts is where I expect them to start their discussions.

I see the Twins considering trades if the trade will make them a better team both today AND in the future.
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#23 Blackjack

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 06:42 AM

Nick, nice article! It summarizes the pros and cons nicely.

 

Two sentences stick out to me:

 

"The fact that they're on the fringe of contention, and hardly motivated sellers, gives the Twins leverage in negotiations that didn't exist last year. If they can identify and acquire either young MLB pitchers or prospects on the brink, it's a savvy long-term strategy."

 

"So really, if the players in this group want to make a push, they hold their destiny in their own hands."

 

Even if they do well in the next two weeks, I don't expect Falvine to do much beyond picking up a pitcher. If the do poorly, they are in a good position to deal.

 

I would put Kepler in the untouchable category, along with Sano.Buxton is going to be very good but I also think that he has a 50/50 chance of permanently hurting himself, I'd deal him if they have the chance.

 

 


#24 Han Joelo

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 06:45 AM

Let's see not just what their win-loss is after they run the Gauntlet, but how much fight they put up. If they sell off while in the hunt, that sends a terrible message that could have unforeseen long term repercussions. Remember all the Twins teams that didn't get reinforcements?

That being said, I wouldn't trade young talent, and it would be theoretically smart to maximize value on a couple of vets. Tough spot.

#25 laloesch

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:08 AM

 

 

To me, the Zack Granite audition is a prelude to trading Buxton.  Let someone else work that development.  And, no, I'm not worried about Buxton developing into a legit All Star.  Twins need better prospects for the future as a team.

 

WOW!  That's a bold prediction if i may say so.  Not saying right or wrong, just bold.  

 

Getting back to the buyers vs. sellers, I don't think the Twins are either at this point. Falvey has hinted they aren't going to mortgage the teams future on rentals to try and sneak into the post season. They might add a couple of minuscule bullpen pieces but nothing major IMO.  

 

That said, I still think they should explore moving Dozier and Santana, for the right price that is.  However, Dozier is certainly not helping matters and is having a DOWN season ( surprise surprise), and his trade value has shrunk considerably from last season.  While i hate to give up Santana he is probably the most valuable trade chip right now and the AStros need pitching help right now after some starting staff injuries.  Could be a good fit there and they have a deep farm system right now.  Explore that for sure. 

 

The only other thing i can think of is see what Oakland wants for Sonny Gray.  His is having a decent 2017 season so far averaging 9.1 strikeouts per K9 which would push him ahead of Berrios K/9.  A's are looking for outfielders which we have in abundance.  Two options Rosario, Granite or Buxton, Granite + Wade or pitching prospect not Romero or Gonsalves.  

 

Anyhow, two things I look forward too this offseason.  Santiago let go (thank god) along with Scaredy Cat Meow Mix Nibbler Gibson.  Both guys have mental fortitude issues and they can cut bait with them with no strings attached.  Beyond that i have no idea what happens.  Hughes is still with us till 2020 and Joe through next season.  After that plenty of cash to go after free agents.

 

In the meantime they should be auditioning Jorge, Romero and Gonsalves now, not next season.  If any of these options hit the ground running, give em a mile long leash and let em RUN!  

Edited by laloesch, 10 July 2017 - 07:29 AM.


#26 spinowner

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:21 AM

 

I don't care about next year. I want to win now. I'll say the same thing next year too.

 

 

You can't always get what you want.

What I want (and know I won't necessarily get) is for the Twins to be an organization that supports a major league team that is in contention every season. That's a formidable but achievable goal. It means having a steady stream of improving prospects, which in turn means having quality people throughout the organization, especially scouting and player development. Trades and free agent acquisitions will also only be successful with good scouting and player development. We are not there yet and it will take a number of years to reach this goal. In the meantime trading to win now is contrary to this goal. I hope that in 5 years we'll be in a position to make such trades.

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#27 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:22 AM

 

I don't care about next year. I want to win now. I'll say the same thing next year too.

 

 

Yeah, but what do YOU care what you'll say next year?;)

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#28 hybridbear

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:30 AM

I think the basic truth is that no matter what the Twins do there will be lots of unhappy fans who wish they had done something else

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#29 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:31 AM

 

They are not in the postseason mix because we have to many holes to fill. Trade Dozier, Santana, and Buxton and bring in some much needed pitching. Our farm system is so depleted that we need to be aggressive on obtaining prospects.

 

Your last sentence is simply not a true depiction of things. I'd restate the first sentence to say we lack the ability to adequately fix the rotation from within to make a serious run in 2017. 

 

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#30 beckmt

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:44 AM

I am in the boat of being both buyers and sellers depending on where Twins are in the next two weeks and how players perform.Unless Twins fold in the next two weeks trading Santana as much as this board likes the idea is off the board.Polanco is at an all time low in value, but him and a mid level prospect could fetch something.Dozier will not bring back a major piece, but Polanco could be of interest with a prospect for a starting pitching from TB.They seem to have more depth there than most teams.If the Twins fall apart Santana could be dealt to the Yankees as they have a deep farm system(as does Boston) that could pick up a major prospect or two.  

More likely Twins add a bullpen piece or two and call it good. 

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#31 ThejacKmp

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:49 AM

 

I am in the boat of being both buyers and sellers depending on where Twins are in the next two weeks and how players perform.Unless Twins fold in the next two weeks trading Santana as much as this board likes the idea is off the board.Polanco is at an all time low in value, but him and a mid level prospect could fetch something.Dozier will not bring back a major piece, but Polanco could be of interest with a prospect for a starting pitching from TB.They seem to have more depth there than most teams.If the Twins fall apart Santana could be dealt to the Yankees as they have a deep farm system(as does Boston) that could pick up a major prospect or two.  

More likely Twins add a bullpen piece or two and call it good. 

 

This. Santana is fine to hold into next year. He's not going to be an ace but this isn't 2006, there aren't a lot of teams you can fleece on a guy being great for a short period. I don't think people are going to value Santana like Sonny Gray. If someone does, I guess you may have to make the trade but I think that's unlikely to happen.

 

I'd be fine to trade Kintzler if you get an amazing offer but again, he's not a crazy shutdown closer so you're not going to get an Andrew Miller or Chapman offer. He's a guy a contender would slot into the 7th inning maybe. More valuable to a contending Twins team at that rate.

 

I like adding maybe one bullpen piece at the deadline and maybe another at the august deadline if need be. Otherwise, let the kids run with this.

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#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:52 AM

As much as I would like to see them be buyers in July, I'm not expecting much. In the off-season, I'd like to see them buy multiple pitchers via trade and FA. They have MI depth that could be expendable. Considering Gordon has now risen to a top 20 prospect in the game, they now have a blue chip trade piece to acquire a very talented player. 


#33 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:53 AM

The Twins should look to be sellers, but not sell for the sake of selling. If this was a team like KC, with 6 of our top players hitting free agency, and a championship pedigree, I'd say go for it. If we were the Tigers from a couple years ago, with our core approaching the mid-30's, I'd say go for it.

This is a young, and hopefully improving team. If we don't think our young core, combined with an above average farm system, and a balance sheet about to get much cleaner is capable of competing consistently for the next 3-5 years, than we should pull a Houston circa 2011, and blow it all up.
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#34 ThejacKmp

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 07:53 AM

Also, the first couple weeks of the second half are going to tell the Twins a lot. Three at the Astros, three vs the Yankees, a brief respite against the Tiggers and then out west for three against the Dodgers. That's three of the best teams in baseball in your first four series. If they come out of that .500, they're going to be in the Wild Card chase. But it's not crazy to think they'd go 3-9 and make this all a bit more academic.

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#35 lukeduke1980

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:01 AM

I'm curious to see what Kansas City does with their impending free agents - buy because this is their last shot in a while or sell to regroup faster.  I think the Twins should counter whatever they do with the opposite.

 

Of course the Astros Yankees and Dodgers series might make it all moot with Gibby and Duffey and crew.

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#36 beckmt

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:05 AM

 

As much as I would like to see them be buyers in July, I'm not expecting much. In the off-season, I'd like to see them buy multiple pitchers via trade and FA. They have MI depth that could be expendable. Considering Gordon has now risen to a top 20 prospect in the game, they now have a blue chip trade piece to acquire a very talented player. 

I am more for trading Polanco or Escobar and bringing Gordon up.He has more upside than any of the other two.

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#37 DocBauer

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:12 AM

Unless the team suddenly sinks, I don't see being sellers. Even then, would trading Santana, and what we might get back, truly build a better 2018 than having him? A recent article/interview clearly stated the team wasn't really looking to make trades unless they were for guys who would be part of the team for a few years. I think this team pretty much stays pat and continues to develop and audition from within, and continues to evaluate all personnel, coaches/managers and players alike at all levels before make decisions in the off season.
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#38 nytwinsfan

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:30 AM

1. The idea that the Twins should shop Buxton is absolutely nuts. Even if you thought Buxton was not the CF of the future, (because you think a guy who hit well at AAA and hasn't gotten a hit yet in the majors is his replacement?) you still wouldn't trade him now. His value is almost certainly going to go up. It really can't go any lower than it is right now. He's not going to hit worse. He's just not.

 

2. I get the reluctance to trade Santana, and I wouldn't trade him unless the offer is really good and includes at least one-high upside pitcher who will be ready by mid (or preferably early) 2018.But if the offer is good enough, you take it. Not only do you get young controllable pitching that is going to be part of the team for the next 6+ years, you also get rid of pitcher who will be 35 next year and whose value is at its apex and is due for a regression due to ageing and/or luck. You also clear $14 million in salary that you can use (along with Santiago and Perkins' $$) to sign another #2 or #3 starting pitcher next year. The price has to be right, but you gotta listen to serious offers, which might be really really good in this market.

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#39 Vanimal46

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:31 AM

 

I am more for trading Polanco or Escobar and bringing Gordon up.He has more upside than any of the other two.

 

I agree Gordon probably has more upside. I'd trade him to get a better player than what Polanco or Escobar would bring in. 


#40 jorgenswest

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Posted 10 July 2017 - 08:31 AM

The last administration traded athletic young outfielders before seeing them in their prime. Gomez after his 23 year old season and Hicks after his 25 year old season. They stuck with Span through age 28. Revere was 24. Need a center fielder? Don't develop them. Just wait until they struggle for a few years in Minnesota and then take them in for the prime of their careers.

I hope this administration is committed to seeing their young and talented players through their struggles. Buxton, Kepler and Polanco showed enough in the minors very young for their leagues. In fact, they are all younger than Granite. They need tremendous patience as they develop in the majors. We couldn't even give Hicks 1000 plate appearances. Gomez just over 1000. I would want to see closer to 2000 plate appearances with this trio.

The Twins need to buyers for their primes.
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