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Article: Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospects in Review

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 12:39 PM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...pects-in-Review

#2 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 01:20 PM

didn't realize that boyd is having trouble getting Ks... he was supposed to be one of those power arms... hopefully that improves.

#3 twinsfiend

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 01:45 PM

Too bad [COLOR=#3E3E3E]Rosario isn't further along we could use his help next year. Maybe 2014?

Is Hicks AAA next year? I'd love to see him in MN but where would we put him?

Seems to me Hendricks needs/deserves a late season call up for audition for next seasons #4 or #5 in rotation.

What are we gonna do with Parmalee ? Trade Morneau in offseason? Or will Parmalee be the one who is packaged up in a trade for some MLB ready starting pitching?

Good Report. I see alot of potential MLB talent too bad most of it is 2-3 years away.[/COLOR]

#4 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 02:05 PM

If you don't get Ks in rookie ball, it's extremely unlikely you will in the majors. Many times I see players that post 10+ K/9s in the GCL/Advanced rk only end up around 6 or 7 per 9 at the higher stages.


I think because of performance, Mata should be above Boyd.
Mata: 2.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 45 IP, 48K, .168 BAA
Boyd: 2.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 45 IP, 29 K, .258 BAA

In additon to being in the same league, Mata is also 2 months Boyd's junior and had a phenomenal year in the GCL last year as well. Both are RHPs that stand 6'2". Boyd has a really good curveball and maybe more "plus" pitches, but I think it's time we saw Mata in the top 20 and at least close to Boyd.

#5 shs_59

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 02:19 PM

Very good Seth :-)

You're list was solid. Very credible and accurate.... it was interesting at one point as i was scrolling down on it, all that was framed in my screen was #'s 5 - #'s 9 (Benson to Wimmers)

And thought to myself, everyone in that slot has been Hurt, terrible, or re-habbing.... The ONlY positive to take away from those 5 players is #7 SP Kyle Gibson! Just weird that our system is still strong, overall, despite such a lackluster back half of the top 10. Parmelee on the other hand, has been a rocket man. And I'm happy with Dozier's play...considering he should have gotten another month or 2 of AAA time.

MY list: (changes a touch from week to week)

1. Byron Buxton A-
2. Miguel Sano B+
3. Oswaldo Arcia B
4. Aaron Hicks B
5. Eddie Rosario B (this low over my concerns about 2B) Maybe he's the 3B of the future? Sano 1B?
6. J.O. Berrios B-
7. Max Kepler B-
8. Kyle Gibson B-/ C+
9. Chris Parmelee
10. Travis Harrison
----
missing: Boyd, Benson, Bard, Walker, Goodrum, and Hermsen Herrmann.

#6 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 02:53 PM

Seth, do you recall what a disaster this list was at this time in 2011? I don't know the numbers off-hand, but I recall (probably innaccurately) that at least half of the top 20 were dissappointing, and most of those dissappointments were injury-related, not performance-related. Which probably explains somewhat why a large majority of these prospects have good to great numbers in 2012.

It would be interesting to compare the top 50 prospects from TwinsTerritory for 2011 and 2012. How many/what percentage had good numbers in 2011 versus 2012? Of the bad performances, what percentage is mostly attributable to injury each year as opposed to just not performing? My guess for 2012 is that 70% of the top 50 performed acceptably, 20% dissappointed due mostly to injury, and only 10% simply failed to perform to expectations. In 2011, my guess is those numbers were more like 40%, 40%, and 20%.

If these guesses are somewhat close, it might explain the somewhat artificial pessimism about the talent level in the system coming into 2012. With the 2012 draft and so many better performances, would you expect the rankings to be dramatically more favorable, or not?

#7 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 02:56 PM

Sorry, I meant Twinkie Town.

#8 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 03:01 PM

If you don't get Ks in rookie ball, it's extremely unlikely you will in the majors. Many times I see players that post 10+ K/9s in the GCL/Advanced rk only end up around 6 or 7 per 9 at the higher stages.


I think because of performance, Mata should be above Boyd.
Mata: 2.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 45 IP, 48K, .168 BAA
Boyd: 2.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 45 IP, 29 K, .258 BAA

In additon to being in the same league, Mata is also 2 months Boyd's junior and had a phenomenal year in the GCL last year as well. Both are RHPs that stand 6'2". Boyd has a really good curveball and maybe more "plus" pitches, but I think it's time we saw Mata in the top 20 and at least close to Boyd.



it can improve. both are young for the level, which does make a difference, but yeah, I was expecting more out of Boyd.

#9 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 03:13 PM

Looking at the Twinkie Town 2012 Top 50, 60% performed acceptably, 20% were injured, and 20% just underperformed expectations. Rough assessment.

#10 Chance

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 04:13 PM

Strange that salcedo was bad and got hurt but moved up 5 places and herrmann went back with a better showing. Morales move up 10 places even though he has struggled as bad if not worse than benson/tosoni.


Thats why these lists are fun though. You can argue about them and have serious doubts about a persons sanity yet they could turn out to be the sane one.

#11 JP3700

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 04:32 PM

Hey guys.. I'm new to the site. Here's my top 10

1. Miguel Sano
2. Byron Buxton
3. Oswaldo Arcia
4. Max Kepler
5. Eddie Rosario
6. J.O. Berrios
7. Aaron Hicks
8. Kyle Gibson
9. DJ Baxendale
10. Angel Mata

Couple of notes I want to add are that I don't consider Parmelee a prospect anymore or he would have been #10 and I think Rosario at #5 is the surest thing in the top 5 but 1-4 have higher upsides.

#12 righty8383

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 05:04 PM

Welcome to the board and nice top 10. I have a hard time making top 10 lists. There's certainly a lot of 2nd guessing. Even the top 5 is tough at this point. I would say Sano, Hicks, Buxton, Arcia and Rosario are the top 5, but the actually order of those 5 is the hard part.

#13 Twinsoholic

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 05:21 PM

Welcome to the board and nice top 10. I have a hard time making top 10 lists. There's certainly a lot of 2nd guessing. Even the top 5 is tough at this point. I would say Sano, Hicks, Buxton, Arcia and Rosario are the top 5, but the actually order of those 5 is the hard part.


My top 20:

Arcia
Buxton
Sano
Berrios
Rosario
Hendricks
Parmalee
Hicks
Gibson
Parmalee
Harrison
Kepler
Vargas
Mata
Bard
Summers
Boyd
Williams
Hermson
Benson
Romero
Thielbar
Boer
Tomshaw

Any list is arbitrary. Any list is fantasy. Lists can be fun. Arcia is putting up the best numbers, so he has to be number one from my perspective.

#14 jimbo92107

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 05:27 PM

Too bad [COLOR=#3E3E3E]Rosario isn't further along we could use his help next year. Maybe 2014?

Is Hicks AAA next year? I'd love to see him in MN but where would we put him?

Seems to me Hendricks needs/deserves a late season call up for audition for next seasons #4 or #5 in rotation.

What are we gonna do with Parmalee ? Trade Morneau in offseason? Or will Parmalee be the one who is packaged up in a trade for some MLB ready starting pitching?

Good Report. I see alot of potential MLB talent too bad most of it is 2-3 years away.[/COLOR]


Seems like there's a mountain of talent rising slowly through the minor leagues. Where are the Twins going to put half a dozen talented new outfielders? Is management getting ready to wipe clean the whole mlb roster and do a radical youth movement? I feel bad for Parmelee. With Morneau getting healthy and looking amazingly dangerous at the plate, there's not much playing time for anybody else at first base.

#15 JP3700

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 05:41 PM

Yeah it's tough. But I agree almost everyone would have a similar top 1-7 or so just a slight different order. I really like Baxendale though. Everything I've heard has been good about him. I don't agree with them putting him in the bullpen though. He's a starter and wants to start but they want to keep his innings down. I believe in keeping pitchers in their comfort zone to maximize their growth. Another example is Madison Boer. He should be a reliever maybe even closer. He's lights out in short stints but clearly struggles as a starter. Instead he'll probably waste 2-3 years struggling as a starter and get put back in the pen and by the time he figures it out again he'll be 26-27 instead of other successful teams that have 22-24 yr old power relievers in the pen. Tyler Robertson could have been up a couple years ago if they didn't waste time trying to make him a starter. Sorry I've gone off the subject.. Just not too happy with the organization right now

#16 rickyhawaii

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 07:53 PM

Jorge Polanco should definitely be raising some eyebrows this season. He's hitting more than I imagined and he's doing well drawing walks and making contact. The power although won't ever be a big part of his game as it would seem, has been nice. 4HRs now and he's been getting plenty of doubles. When he was signed the reports said he was a slick defender who should be able to stay at short. If he develops like he's doing he could be a very good player. He should be in the top 20.

#17 mediocre

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 08:30 PM

What Hermsen's been doing this year with such a low strikeout rate is incredible (incredibly lucky?). Have to imagine he would be making a few more Top 10 lists were he striking more guys out. Still think he can be a serviceable #4/#5 in the show, but I'm curious if he can maintain this success into next season.

Oh yea, my Top 10:

1. Miguel Sano
2. Eddie Rosario
3. Byron Buxton
4. Oswaldo Arcia
5. Aaron Hicks
6. J.O. Berrios
7. Max Kepler
8. Kyle Gibson
9. Travis Harrison
10. Niko Goodrum

#18 Seth Stohs

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 08:58 PM

Strange that salcedo was bad and got hurt but moved up 5 places and herrmann went back with a better showing. Morales move up 10 places even though he has struggled as bad if not worse than benson/tosoni.


Thats why these lists are fun though. You can argue about them and have serious doubts about a persons sanity yet they could turn out to be the sane one.


I think you have it backwards... the first number is the number for where I ranked them in January when the book came out. The number in parentheses is where I ranked them in late May. Salcedo dropped a little bit.

I also will put out a top 50 following the season, likely in September... but after researching 160+ players for the book, it can change more.

#19 JP3700

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 09:01 PM

What Hermsen's been doing this year with such a low strikeout rate is incredible (incredibly lucky?). Have to imagine he would be making a few more Top 10 lists were he striking more guys out. Still think he can be a serviceable #4/#5 in the show, but I'm curious if he can maintain this success into next season.



I agree he is having a great year at his age and level. But as far as being a prospect.. He just doesn't project well to the majors. He's similar to Liam Hendriks except less strikeouts which is not a good sign. He has a 1 to 1 ground ball to fly ball rate.. Also a bad sign. Those two things combined.. He won't be able to sustain being a starter in the majors. He either has to increase his strikeouts or start getting more ground balls. That's why Liam Hendriks hasn't had success and is working on it in the minors.

Edited by JP3700, 14 August 2012 - 09:03 PM.


#20 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 09:11 PM

1. Sano
2. Buxton
3. Hicks
4. Arcia
5. Rosario
6. Berrios
7. Gibson
8. Benson
9. Walker
10. Keplar

#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 09:12 PM

Jorge Polanco should definitely be raising some eyebrows this season. He's hitting more than I imagined and he's doing well drawing walks and making contact. The power although won't ever be a big part of his game as it would seem, has been nice. 4HRs now and he's been getting plenty of doubles. When he was signed the reports said he was a slick defender who should be able to stay at short. If he develops like he's doing he could be a very good player. He should be in the top 20.


He wasn't a Top 50 guy for me coming into the year, but he'll certainly be in consideration between 30-40 probably. He's been solid.

#22 JP3700

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 09:23 PM

Jorge Polanco should definitely be raising some eyebrows this season. He's hitting more than I imagined and he's doing well drawing walks and making contact. The power although won't ever be a big part of his game as it would seem, has been nice. 4HRs now and he's been getting plenty of doubles. When he was signed the reports said he was a slick defender who should be able to stay at short. If he develops like he's doing he could be a very good player. He should be in the top 20.


He wasn't a Top 50 guy for me coming into the year, but he'll certainly be in consideration between 30-40 probably. He's been solid.


Yeah I did a top 50 for fun and I have Polanco at 36.

Just curious Seth.. Are you high on Baxendale like I am? And do you have any idea if they plan to make Melotakis, Chargois, Duffey, or Zach Jones starters next year?

#23 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 10:03 PM

No way I would have Polanco that low when Niko Goodrum is ranked higher. Polanco is absolutely higher in any ranking I do than Goodrum.
Jorge is a full year younger & while playing in the same league.....has blown Niko away offensively.

#24 Seth Stohs

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 10:09 PM

Just curious Seth.. Are you high on Baxendale like I am? And do you have any idea if they plan to make Melotakis, Chargois, Duffey, or Zach Jones starters next year?


I saw Baxendale pitch one inning in relief in Beloit and he struckout the side. As I watch him and his delivery, I thought, "How was this guy a starter in college?" I liked what I saw, but I wouldn't make anything out of his numbers this year as a one-inning reliever. Summers and Boer had good K numbers as relievers last year, and this year as starters, their K-rates are pretty pedestrian. Don't get me wrong, I like Baxendale, especially as a 10th round pick!

I dont know what the plans are, but I think we've heard that Chargois and Duffey are likely relievers only. Melotakis really didn't impress me in his one inning (which of course means nothing). I bet he could start. Jones just throws gas. At the same time, I see no negative in giving some of these guys some starting opportunities next year to see if that is a possibility. Worst case, they can stretch out and work on secondary pitches.

#25 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 10:20 PM

What Hermsen's been doing this year with such a low strikeout rate is incredible (incredibly lucky?). Have to imagine he would be making a few more Top 10 lists were he striking more guys out. Still think he can be a serviceable #4/#5 in the show, but I'm curious if he can maintain this success into next season.


I think he scares many, myself included, as being a Nick Blackburn type.

#26 JP3700

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 10:29 PM

I saw Baxendale pitch one inning in relief in Beloit and he struckout the side. As I watch him and his delivery, I thought, "How was this guy a starter in college?" I liked what I saw, but I wouldn't make anything out of his numbers this year as a one-inning reliever. Summers and Boer had good K numbers as relievers last year, and this year as starters, their K-rates are pretty pedestrian. Don't get me wrong, I like Baxendale, especially as a 10th round pick!

I dont know what the plans are, but I think we've heard that Chargois and Duffey are likely relievers only. Melotakis really didn't impress me in his one inning (which of course means nothing). I bet he could start. Jones just throws gas. At the same time, I see no negative in giving some of these guys some starting opportunities next year to see if that is a possibility. Worst case, they can stretch out and work on secondary pitches.


Ah okay. How did his stuff look? And what was wrong with his delivery? Too much going on?

And yeah they both have been dissapointing. Boer more so. But I read that Boer's fastball drops from high 90's as a reliever to low 90's as a starter. That's why the huge drop off.

#27 Shane Wahl

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 11:40 PM

1. Miguel Sano
2. Oswaldo Arcia
3. Eddie Rosario
4. Aaron Hicks
5. Byron Buxton
6. J.O. Berrios
7. Max Kepler
8. Kyle Gibson
9. Joe Benson
10. Travis Harrison
11. Hudson Boyd
12. Chris Herrmann

#28 Seth Stohs

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 05:06 AM

Ah okay. How did his stuff look? And what was wrong with his delivery? Too much going on?

And yeah they both have been dissapointing. Boer more so. But I read that Boer's fastball drops from high 90's as a reliever to low 90's as a starter. That's why the huge drop off.


The delivery was really busy, lots of movement. I just thought that it would be tough to maintain that over 7-8 innings. Stuff-wise, he showed a good fastball (92 maybe) with movement, and a terrific breaking ball. He's a starter and he'll start next year, for sure.

As for Boer, I like the idea of giving them a chance to start, if nothing else to try to develop more pitches. I just think that the floors for these guys are pretty high and they can be very good relievers. I actually think that Matt Summers has pitched very well. The only concern is the lack of strikeouts, which is strange.

#29 Chance

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 05:48 AM

Thanks Seth got it now!

#30 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:22 AM

Obviously the Twins system is short on top-tier pitching prospects, but where would the system rank if we considered only hitters? It seems like we have a ton of solid, high-upside bats, with 2-3 at practically every level AA and lower. Given our preponderance of offense, particularly in the outfield, should we be talking to the Mariners about one of their top pitching prospects?