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Article: Searching For Relief

phil hughes pat neshek ryan pressly glen perkins john curtiss
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#41 The Wise One

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Posted 27 June 2017 - 10:57 PM

 

I totally get the argument that one bad game can torpedo a reliever's ERA for while. But Belisle has had multiple bad games, evenly spaced through the season. Capable MLB relievers don't just give up multiple runs in close games every other week. And they certainly aren't capable of "pitching to the score" by only giving up runs when we're already behind.

We should consider ourselves lucky that it hasn't burned us more up to this point and move on. I'm not sure Belisle and Molitor can keep up this jujitsu for much longer.

The question should be what metrics do the front office use. Clutch statistics say he is the best Twins reliever, better than most relievers in the league. Might mean something. Might not . Fangraphs says he has had 10 shutdowns. About a little better than league average . Might mean he is adequate.  Fangraphs also says he has 7 meltdowns.  Not the highest in the league, but enough to say he might suck.  So what statistics does one use to asses how good or bad a reliever is.  When Belisle is good, he does the job well and gives the team a chance to win. When he is bad, it is like sending a batting practice pitcher out there. In the bullpen there is Kinzler Rogers and Duffrey. Then there is the rest  When they figure out what to do with the spots not occupied by Boshers, Breslow and Belisle (The killed B's) because any of those pitchers really have not fared well.  Injuries and regression. Tonkin and Pressly regressed, Chagois, and O'Rourke got injured, as did  anyone you thought might have progressed this spring. There are bigger problems than Belisle to be solved. 


#42 The Wise One

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Posted 27 June 2017 - 11:15 PM

 

Breslow has also walked 4 lefties and only struck out 4 in almost 40 PA. Breslow has better BB and K rates vs RHP. He has an impossibly low .166 BABIP vs LHB as well. Boil it all down and it suggests that Breslow's success against lefties this year is largely a result of luck and/or because he's pitching in low leverage situations.

As for Belisle, did you not see his horrendous performance in a high leverage situation last night? He allowed an inherited run to score and he turned a bad situation into an impossible one.

Reread what the question posed by the person I responded to.  It appears that when someone asks a question and you attempt to answer it the original question must disappear so it is not seen by those respond to my post.


#43 The Wise One

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Posted 27 June 2017 - 11:17 PM

 

Good catch on the Breslow platoon split this season. However, he has no good platoon splits in any recent seasons prior to his signing this winter. Molitor rightly trusts Rogers and Boshers more. So, we seem to disagree on the value of Breslow's intangible strengths.

I responded to a question about what Molitor must be looking at with these two. Hence with Breslow there is no disagreement, only trying to figure out what somebody might be seeing. Plenty of posts on what management  is not seeing. 

Edited by The Wise One, 27 June 2017 - 11:24 PM.


#44 Danchat

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Posted 27 June 2017 - 11:25 PM

 

When they figure out what to do with the spots not occupied by Boshers, Breslow and Belisle (The killed B's) because any of those pitchers really have not fared well.

I wouldn't lump Boshers in with Breslow and Belisle. Over the past calendar year in the majors, Boshers has a solid 3.62 ERA [FIP of 2.84 in 2016!] with a BB/9 of 1.8 and K/9 of 8.4 - though his strikeouts have dropped off so far this season, but the sample size is a bit small. He's leagues ahead of those two right now, and while Boshers is probably just a placeholder at this point, at least he isn't losing the Twins games. He's the type of guy we need in the bullpen while we wait for our injured prospects to get healthy - Belisle and Breslow are not.

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#45 JustinCB

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 12:32 AM

Belisle has shown the young guys how to have an absolutely crappy game and still show up the next day.


Belisle should keep his crappy games to himself.
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#46 USAFChief

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 12:39 AM

 

Breslow has to be done after tonight right? Brings nothing to the table.

I've copied this so I can post it every few days.

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#47 The Wise One

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 02:12 AM

 

I wouldn't lump Boshers in with Breslow and Belisle. Over the past calendar year in the majors, Boshers has a solid 3.62 ERA [FIP of 2.84 in 2016!] with a BB/9 of 1.8 and K/9 of 8.4 - though his strikeouts have dropped off so far this season, but the sample size is a bit small. He's leagues ahead of those two right now, and while Boshers is probably just a placeholder at this point, at least he isn't losing the Twins games. He's the type of guy we need in the bullpen while we wait for our injured prospects to get healthy - Belisle and Breslow are not.

All depends on what metric you want to use. Boshers has a better ERA, not much difference in outcomes than Belisle, but pitches well in low leverage situations. So leagues ahead is a relative term. and depends on what you measure


#48 USAFChief

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 02:27 AM

All depends on what metric you want to use. Boshers has a better ERA, not much difference in outcomes than Belisle, but pitches well in low leverage situations. So leagues ahead is a relative term. and depends on what you measure


How about we use the metrics of base runners allowed and runs allowed?

Then there are different outcomes between Boshers and Belisle.
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#49 The Wise One

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 03:53 AM

 

How about we use the metrics of base runners allowed and runs allowed?

Then there are different outcomes between Boshers and Belisle.

There are different game outcomes when Boshers and Belisle pitch.  Boshers has been trusted with a lead maybe 2 times. One of those was a 4 run lead.. Mop up duty.  The team is losing, Some people think how a player is  used is important, some do not. Differences of opinion. That the mop up guy pitches well enough to prevent more bleeding is a good thing.  Then why isn't Molitor using him in more important situations?

The complaint on Breslow is that he is  mostly used in mop up.  Nary a word that that is also Bosher's role. Boshers is an effective mop up man woo hoo.  Star of the mop up relievers. Sign him up for the All Star game


#50 drjim

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 05:08 AM

I've copied this so I can post it every few days.


Had been an evergreen post for over a month now, but is especially apparent from this game. They probably need to recall Pressly or another pitcher and other than Belisle everyone else should stay.
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#51 jorgenswest

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 08:17 AM

There are almost no meaningful in season metrics for relief pitchers. There just isn't enough sample.

At this point, you could look to changes in ground ball rate and strike out rate from career or last three season norms. It is still too early to point to a change in walk rates for any of the Twin relievers.

The pitch level data would tell more. Has there been a drop in velocity? Has there been a change in spin rate?...

Compared to the last three years, Belisle's ground ball rate is the lowest it has been and his strike out rate is better than his year with the Rockies but lower than his seasons with the Cardinals and Nationals. He did face more pitchers in the NL increasing those NL strike out rates. His velocity is in line with that of the last three years.

There is little else on his fangraphs page useful to support an argument that he brings a different level of skill from the previous three seasons. The front office would be wise to ignore most of the batted ball data and standard statistics at this point. The skilled eyes of a trained staff are vital in this assessment.

Breslow is a different case. He hadn't been effective for the last three years. The question coming into camp was whether some changes he made in the offseason would lead to better results. He also is best used as a situational pitcher. Data in his sample against only left handed batters is very small and virtually useless in this partial season sample. Comparing the last 4 seasons to when he was more effective, there is a drop in velocity that continues this year. Is he their most effective option to get out a single left handed hitter? The eyes of the staff can best make that decision. Given that 114 of 131 batters faced have come in low leverage situations, I think we know what the eyes of the staff think. There is a lot of low leverage work in the Twins bullpen, perhaps Breslow brings value in the bullpen while not pitching that is worth giving him a good share of the low leverage load.

#52 USAFChief

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 10:10 AM

There are different game outcomes when Boshers and Belisle pitch.  Boshers has been trusted with a lead maybe 2 times. One of those was a 4 run lead.. Mop up duty.  The team is losing, Some people think how a player is  used is important, some do not. Differences of opinion. That the mop up guy pitches well enough to prevent more bleeding is a good thing.  Then why isn't Molitor using him in more important situations?
The complaint on Breslow is that he is  mostly used in mop up.  Nary a word that that is also Bosher's role. Boshers is an effective mop up man woo hoo.  Star of the mop up relievers. Sign him up for the All Star game


The complaint on Breslow isn't that he is used mostly in mopup. The complaint on Breslow is that he gives up too many base runners, hence runs, and K's too few hitters. The complaint is, he's not someone who helps win games.
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#53 drjim

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 01:42 PM

 

Looks like Hughes up, Breslow out.

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#54 drjim

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 01:44 PM

 

I've copied this so I can post it every few days.

 

Twins saved you some work.

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#55 Mike Sixel

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 01:50 PM

 

 

Looks like Hughes up, Breslow out.

 

so it isn't about leadership, then, apparently.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#56 jorgenswest

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 01:59 PM

so it isn't about leadership, then, apparently.


Isn't he on the DL? I don't get the reference.

#57 drjim

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 02:00 PM

 

Isn't he on the DL? I don't get the reference.

 

He is. Probably should have put the man out of his misery.

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#58 Mike Sixel

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 02:00 PM

 

Isn't he on the DL? I don't get the reference.

 

sorry, missed they put him on the DL with a phantom injury. Can't wait until he comes back.....

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#59 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 02:07 PM

Ok, so Breslow is "injured" and Hughes is up? It's a start. 


#60 Mike Sixel

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Posted 28 June 2017 - 02:27 PM

"sore ribs" wow. I do like they are using the DL this way, but wow.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?




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