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Buyers or Sellers?

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#1 Twodogs

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 11:59 AM

I have seen this topic come up numerous times over the last few weeks.  I was giving it some thought as there are some people on the board that suggest that since the Twins are in playoff contention you have to think about being buyers instead of sellers.  Then there are others that say even if the Twins are in contention for playoffs, they should still be sellers because even with a wild card or a division title in a weak division that the Twins have no legit shot at the World Series because of some of this teams limitations.  

 

So I just took a look around, and these are all just based off of my opinions, to see what teams out there, on paper have a legit shot at going to the World Series, teams that seem to have everything.  Solid pitching with a couple of Aces, Solid hitting and solid defense; all three facets of the game that need to be in place in order to contend for a World Series title.  As I looked around I only really see a few teams that meet that criteria in my mind.  Houston Astros, as long as their starting staff gets healthy, seems like they have some nagging injuries but no season enders.  Los Angeles Dodgers seem to have all facets with a legit Ace.  Washington Nationals also seem to have everything in place.  

 

There are others on the cusp, that for whatever reason are not living up to their potential or seem to have some flaws.  They are New York (a little shaky starting pitching? Sabathia??)  Boston (again starting pitching to me is a little shaky), Colorado, (do you trust that rotation in the playoffs?), Arizona?? Chicago (barely .500, must be something wrong), Cleveland (again barely .500) Milwaukee need I say more (Matt Garza?)  Anyway so if most of those teams take the exact same approach as the Twins and decide that if they can't win the World Series that they should be Sellers instead of Buyers there is a possibility that there will be 24 - 26 teams all trying to be sellers at the trade deadline?  

 

I know of all of the people that want to sell, sell, sell many of them are talking about selling Santana, selling Dozier, etc....  They say you need to sell high and buy low and that guys like Santana will never be higher as far a worth.  However, if everyone is sellers wouldn't that put a guy like Santana and his value even lower??  If there are limited buyers, say 4 or 5 teams and a multitude of sellers wouldn't that depress a guy like Santana's or Dozier's value??  Again you would just simply have to wait until it gets closer to the deadline to see what actually happens and I am just throwing out a Devil's advocate scenario here; but, if it comes to fruition that there are way way more sellers than buyers at that deadline which in turn would depress the Twins players values wouldn't it then at that time be better to switch thinking and buy??  Since the market would possibly be depressed it might be easier at that time to buy low which I know at the deadline doesn't make sense but if the market is flooded with sellers then that would lower the value of what is out there and that might be the time to pounce on a deal??  Just looking at it from another angle.

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#2 Doomtints

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:05 PM

The Twins would have to buy too much to win a playoff series, but selling right now would send the wrong message. If someone comes calling for Dozier and the trade makes sense, make the move, but do so at the last possible second because the team could take a nose dive after anyone is sold off.

 

Any moves would have to be made with the eye on 2018. The Twins are closer to competing than we imagined, but it's probably not this year without a major epiphany shared among half the pitching staff.

Edited by Doomtints, 19 June 2017 - 12:06 PM.

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#3 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:19 PM

That decision doesn't need to be made for a month, and we should have more information.Not sure I'd sell if they are in contention.I would definitely move Dozier for pitching if I could, but I don't really call that selling.

 

My personal opinion is that they are pretenders, but every now and then a pretender can win the WS (see 1987 Twins).With a very brutal couple of weeks of baseball coming up, they could quickly fall out of contention and answer the question for us...

 

As for who to move.

 

Dozier for sure.

Maybe Grossman.

Any of the older relievers (assuming there are takers)

I'm not sure I'd move Santana even if they are sellers.That would have to be an incredibly impressive offer.

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#4 Sssuperdave

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:21 PM

I think a lot of things go into the buy/sell decision besides W-L Record. For me, one reason the Twins should sell is that when it comes to W-L, right now they are overachieving while many of the other teams you mention are underachieving. In my eyes, the Twins have been lucky so far this year. They are 9-4 in one-run games, which is the best (luckiest?) in the American league, and their run differential is minus 44.Yes, much of that run differential is blowout games, but I can't help but feel that the Twins, even with another piece or two, aren't going to be able to continue this pace.

 

The Yankees are 7-12 in 1 run games and have a +108 run differential, Cleveland is 9-6 in 1 run games and has a +38 run differential, and the Cubs are 10-10 in 1 run games and have a +12 run differential. Add to that the Twins have a lot of individual players over-performing and haven't had many injuries to key players, and this just feels like too much of a mirage to count on.

 

So, even if other team looks at it the same way as the Twins, I don't think there would be 24-26 sellers. I don't think New York, Cleveland, Chicago, or Boston should be sellers even though their records are close to the Twins.

 

I don't know though... perhaps I really am being too pessimistic. It sure is fun to watch my favorite team win, and maybe they will continue to outperform all year?

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#5 Respy

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:22 PM

If I had to predict, I would say they'll be sellers.  In reality though, I think we are seeing as long as they hang around .500, the Front Office is going to float in limbo and keep control of as many current players as possible.  July 31 is still a LONG time from now.  They could be 10 games under .500 or 10 games over .500 (and that would make the decision easier).  If they are around .500, which puts the team in moderate playoff contention, I think they will look at offers as both buyers and sellers up to the deadline.  The first move (if there is one) would likely trigger which direction they need to go.  It's also very possible that they do nothing.  It might take too much to make the team good (ie mid-rotation starter), yet they want to stay in contention and not sell off Santana, Dozier, etc.

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#6 jaimedude2

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:22 PM

 

The Twins would have to buy too much to win a playoff series, but selling right now would send the wrong message. If someone comes calling for Dozier and the trade makes sense, make the move, but do so at the last possible second because the team could take a nose dive after anyone is sold off.

 

Any moves would have to be made with the eye on 2018. The Twins are closer to competing than we imagined, but it's probably not this year without a major epiphany shared among half the pitching staff.

They are kind of both. They have assets to sell, and they need pitching bullpen and starting rotation. Any talks of playoffs at this point is worthless. Let's see the team not start any more 4 or five game losing streaks would be a good start. The starting rotation is in shambles beyond two people right now and the top guy, is a peak performer and then the next game he get's whacked around. Any and all moves should be made for the team to be competitive in the coming years meaning somehow identify and develop starting pitching talent. I could see them trading Dozier still, but not convinced he will bring back much value, his on base percentage is just to low for most teams and he is not a conventional leadoff hitter by taking walks and getting on which most teams prefer.

Edited by jaimedude2, 19 June 2017 - 12:23 PM.

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#7 rujellis

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:25 PM

For most part, i agree with doomtints...i just think the MIN need to be prepared to go in either direction.  If someone wows you for Santana, Dozier, Kintzler than you need to have the stones to make those deals.  If you are poking around for upgrades(that are not rentals) and there is a palatable price than again go for it.  

 

Doing nothing is the worst option.  There is a definite need to re-organize both the 25 and 40 man rosters, and I think some fresh blood via trade can be 1 avenue to start that process.  

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#8 Loosey

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:26 PM

I think the Twins are in a position where they have to find the exact right trading partner.  I don't think they will or should go after the rental players to make a run this year.  It would only damage this team to trade prospects for a half a season of a pitcher when clearly more than that is needed.  If they are buying, they need to but the type of player with 2+ years left on their contract so they can get help for this year and the next few.  

 

The problem with these types of trades are there are not many teams willing to trade young talent with years left, and if they do they are likely asking for a lot in return.

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#9 Vanimal46

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:32 PM

Can the answer be both? I would buy pitching right now. Doesn't even have to be the sexy names out there like Gerrit Cole, Darvish, etc. They just need competent back of the rotation arms in order to give themselves a shot of contending until July. 

 

Once July rolls around, if they're at or above .500, continue buying. If they're 10 games out of the WC or Central division, then go right ahead and sell as much as possible. 

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#10 brettbrett88

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:17 PM

 

Can the answer be both? I would buy pitching right now. Doesn't even have to be the sexy names out there like Gerrit Cole, Darvish, etc. They just need competent back of the rotation arms in order to give themselves a shot of contending until July. 

 

Once July rolls around, if they're at or above .500, continue buying. If they're 10 games out of the WC or Central division, then go right ahead and sell as much as possible. 

 

Indeed...who knows how the Indians will fare up until the end of July...we have to remember the Twins are only 2 games off and that can change for the better or worse very quickly! Lets just see how it goes.

 

Having Santiago and Hughes back would help the pitching staff compared to Wilk and Turley right?

Edited by brettbrett88, 19 June 2017 - 01:19 PM.

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#11 Vanimal46

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:31 PM

 

Indeed...who knows how the Indians will fare up until the end of July...we have to remember the Twins are only 2 games off and that can change for the better or worse very quickly! Lets just see how it goes.

 

Having Santiago and Hughes back would help the pitching staff compared to Wilk and Turley right?

 

Absolutely, Brett. Side note, I partied with a few Brits down in Cancun last week! Had a nice chinwag at the pool with them. 

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#12 gunnarthor

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:32 PM

I don't expect any major trade during the season but I do think we will make a few trades in the offseason.

That said, I think the team might move Grossman in the next 5 weeks. Molitor sure seems to like Vargas (I don't) and Grossman can't field but he can get on base. I could see a few teams willing to offer something of value for him.

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#13 Twodogs

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:53 PM

I guess my point was that if there are a lot of sellers then that would diminish trade value for players being offered up as the market would be flooded with options? If the market is flooded and value goes down, then wouldn't trading be a bad idea? Also possibly, if the market is flooded and value goes down then it might be prudent to look for that middle to back of the rotation guy as he may come cheap, but only if the market is flooded. Obviously, if the market is scarce, then the value of guys like Dozier, Grossman, Kintzler goes way up..
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#14 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:54 PM

My issue is if they "wait and see" for another month, they will surely fall out of the race. 

 

The decade of dominance from 2001-2010 was nice, but there are no guarantees that will ever happen again. You play the hand you are dealt. The Twins still have a reasonable shot at the post-season this year. 

 

The "do nothing" option is to patch it together for another week or so, and then hope Santiago comes back fresh and performs like he did in his first half-dozen starts. It's possible, but not awe inspiring.

 

 

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#15 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:55 PM

 

 

Having Santiago and Hughes back would help the pitching staff compared to Wilk and Turley right?

 

That's not saying much though. I've seen Hughes and Santiago pitch this year. Instead of losing by 7 runs, they maybe only lose by 5. These guys are still really ineffective pitchers.

 

Hughes, Santiago, Pelfrey, Nolasco, Correa, Pavano. I'm just so tired of holding the bag on these vet pitchers when they go bust. I know the argument is usually that people want to get prospects in return for these guys before they go belly up, but that's not really the biggest issue.

 

Because of their status, contract and past year's success the team keeps running these guys out there long after it's clear they are no longer effective. How many games has this team lost in the last decade crossing their fingers and hoping these guys regain their glory, which almost always looked unsustainable to begin with? I don't want to do this with 35-year-old Santana too, I want to end this cycle.

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#16 mazeville

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 02:03 PM

Here's one potential idea ...

 

You could start buying now. Trade a package of prospects led by Nick Gordon for Cole. Trade for a reliever like Pat Neshek. Put Phil Hughes in the bullpen, and perhaps Kyle Gibson or Santiago. 

 

You'd then have a rotation of Santana-Cole-Berrios-Santiago-Mejia, which is not bad. Signing someone like Neshek, and putting Hughes in the pen, could make things easier top to bottom. And suddenly the Twins could legitimately contend for the division.

 

More to the point, you'd send a message to the fans that they want to win some games and aren't content purely rebuilding.

 

But do this now. Because the fact is, the Twins might need more players than that. The bullpen, especially, could have problems. So if the Twins make these deals and fall further out of the race, they could trade Santana and perhaps Dozier at the deadline to reclaim some minor league depth lost in the Cole and Neshek deals. 

 

And you'd still have a rotation led by Gerritt Cole and Jose Berrios for the next couple of years while guys like Romero and Gonsalves are coming up. I wouldn't consider making a trade for a pitcher unless that pitcher would be here for a few years. And Neshek could probably be had for a relatively low price compared to someone like Andrew Miller. 

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#17 drjim

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 02:04 PM

I think the buy/sell options are too narrow. I think there is a chance they do both. They could move a position player or two for a longer term option at pitcher, and then potentially add a couple of cheap backend starters or bullpen arms if they are hanging in as fringe contenders through July (which I expect).

 

My personal plan would be to shop Polanco for a starter either up to the deadline (or offseason), extend Dozier, bridge SS with Escobar/Adrianza until Gordon is ready.

 

I would also look to move Rosario or Grossman if they can get controllable starters back (or package with Polanco).

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#18 Vanimal46

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 02:10 PM

 

I think the buy/sell options are too narrow. I think there is a chance they do both. They could move a position player or two for a longer term option at pitcher, and then potentially add a couple of cheap backend starters or bullpen arms if they are hanging in as fringe contenders through July (which I expect).

 

My personal plan would be to shop Polanco for a starter either up to the deadline (or offseason), extend Dozier, bridge SS with Escobar/Adrianza until Gordon is ready.

 

I would also look to move Rosario or Grossman if they can get controllable starters back (or package with Polanco).

 

We're on the same page. Depending on if the other team values Polanco or Gordon more is who I would trade. Since we want a better pitcher in return. 

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#19 Sssuperdave

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 02:12 PM

 

I guess my point was that if there are a lot of sellers then that would diminish trade value for players being offered up as the market would be flooded with options? If the market is flooded and value goes down, then wouldn't trading be a bad idea? Also possibly, if the market is flooded and value goes down then it might be prudent to look for that middle to back of the rotation guy as he may come cheap, but only if the market is flooded. Obviously, if the market is scarce, then the value of guys like Dozier, Grossman, Kintzler goes way up..

 

I think it's a totally valid point - tough to be a seller in a buyer's market and vice versa.I'm just not convinced it will be a buyer's market.That said, right now 13 AL teams are within 3 games of a playoff spot.The NL is more spread out though.

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#20 drjim

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 02:25 PM

 

We're on the same page. Depending on if the other team values Polanco or Gordon more is who I would trade. Since we want a better pitcher in return. 

 

I would think Polanco has better value at the moment but I would bet on Gordon being better long term, and the team has an acceptable bridge to the middle of next season.

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