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Possible Trade Partners for Dozier

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#41 spycake

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 10:44 AM

 

Checks standings. Yep, we're still in first place while Dozier, Mauer, Buxton and Rosario are all under-performing offensively and Hughes, Gibson and Santiago are under-performing on the rubber. Our pitching is scary but I think it's a bit early to sell Dozier and Santana.

I don't disagree with your conclusion, just because there's not a great market for Dozier or Santana right now, but on what planet is Mauer under-performing offensively?  He's got a 108 wRC+, his highest mark in 4 years.

 

And basically every other guy you list is within a rounding error of their 2016 marks (or career marks, in Dozier's case).

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#42 KirbyDome89

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 10:48 AM

 

Had Dozier started 2017 where he left off in 2016 I believe he would be generating some interest. Failing that, he is now a 1.5 year rental. And not nearly as enticing as he was in the off-season (where there wasn't all that much demand).

I like Dozier a lot, but I do not think that there is a market for him.

I suspect that if the Twins had known how Dozier was going to play in April/May they would have made a trade with the Dodgers and De Leon would be on our DL right now.

 

I can't think of a single team that really feels getting Dozier (and his .237/.332/.409 (.741) slash line) would move the needle enough to surrender a player who would make a difference for the Twins, now or in the future.

Exactly why a number of people were OK with the trade last offseason. I can't imagine they didn't see regression on the horizon for Dozier. 

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#43 Doomtints

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 10:50 AM

 

Anyone catching your eye on this list? It's not a great class of free agents. 

 

Isn't this what we say every year?

 

Do any of the free agents improve upon the 5.50 ERA, 7.50 WHIP that much of this staff has?  

Twins Manifesto: Build for .500, hope for more.


#44 spycake

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 10:56 AM

Here is 2017 second base offensive performance so far, by team:

 

http://www.fangraphs...ers=0&sort=16,d

 

Twins are 16th, and virtually every team notably below us is either a non-contender or already set/committed at the position.  Like last winter, the most notable exception is probably the Angels, but they don't really have the assets to make a trade worthwhile for us, even if they wanted to.

 

Dozier's blockbuster trade market has pretty much always hinged on the belief that he could be a ~130 wRC+ hitter going forward.  No one was really believing that last winter, and obviously even fewer would believe it now.

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#45 spycake

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 10:58 AM

 

Exactly why a number of people were OK with the trade last offseason. I can't imagine they didn't see regression on the horizon for Dozier. 

But, the rest of the league pretty much saw the same regression coming.  It wasn't exactly hard to see!

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#46 gunnarthor

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 10:58 AM

 

I don't disagree with your conclusion, just because there's not a great market for Dozier or Santana right now, but on what planet is Mauer under-performing offensively?  He's got a 108 wRC+, his highest mark in 4 years.

 

And basically every other guy you list is within a rounding error of their 2016 marks (or career marks, in Dozier's case).

Did you expect Dozier to put up a 101 OPS+? Buxton a 52 OPS+? Rosario a 88 OPS+? If not, they are under performing. You're probably right about Mauer.


#47 spycake

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:02 AM

 

Did you expect Dozier to put up a 101 OPS+? Buxton a 52 OPS+? Rosario a 88 OPS+? If not, they are under performing. You're probably right about Mauer.

Dozier's career mark is a 107 OPS+.  Rosario put up a 91 last year.  Their 2017 performances are pretty much in line with my preseason expectations.  Plus or minus ~5 OPS+/wRC+ points isn't that big of a deal.

 

Buxton I'll grant is under-performing most preseason expectations -- his 2016 power surge up to a 90 OPS+ / 86 wRC+ seems so long ago now!  Although he was known to be a bit of a wildcard.

Edited by spycake, 09 June 2017 - 11:04 AM.


#48 KirbyDome89

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:13 AM

 

But, the rest of the league pretty much saw the same regression coming.  It wasn't exactly hard to see!

Of course....which is why I was fine with them agreeing to the deal. It was peak Dozier and if De Leon was the best they were going to get then that's OK.  


#49 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:16 AM

 

While the fruit hasn't ripened yet on the old prospect tree, it's pretty exciting to look at what the Twins have now, and should have in the near future, for middle infield options.

Not including Rosier, Polanco looks to be a keeper. Adrianza, through ST and his rehab stint and his short time with the Twins, has looked good. Escobar is a nice ballplayer. Vielma has potential as a contact/speed glove man off the bench if he never makes it as a starter. And then there is Gordon...enough said there. Oh, and Goodrum shows potential as a super utility guy liked we all hoped DanSan might have been. Remember when the Twins couldn't find anyone to play the middle infield?

I just don't think Dozier gets moved if the team is playing well come July. Further, after last off season attempts to possibly move him proved underwhelming, I'm still uncertain of his actual trade value. Does it improve mid season for a team looking for that edge in their contention window? Possibly.

I still wonder about keeping him long term with Mauer gone after 2018 and juggling the infield with Sano, who I like a lot at 3B, moving to 1B or Dozier sliding over there. May be crazy, but it's a thought that has crossed my mind.

Dozier is one of my favorite Twin players, but I don't think he has the arm to play 3B.

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#50 clone52

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:20 AM

 

Concur with Oldgoat. Nothing has changed in the 2B market since last winter. Dozier is falling back to Earth with his .741 OPS. The Twins may have to start looking at Polanco and Gordon as trade bait in order to acquire top-tier pitching prospects.  

 

Dozier is way ahead of where he was on this date last year, amazingly.

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#51 drock2190

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:28 AM

There still isn't any good fits outside of the Dodgers. It will take a season ending injury to a 2nd baseman by a good team to garner interest in Dozier.


#52 Darius

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:38 AM

Dozier is highly overvalued by most Twins fans. He's not as good defensively as most seem to think. He's not as good offensively as most seem to think. Nobody is going to pay much for a Dozier rental. He's a decent player, but nothing special (his recent flashy power numbers are offset by plenty of offensive shortcomings, IMO).

The Indians have a worse 2B situation than the Twins with Kipnis? I'd disagree. They only have roughly a 200 AB difference in the majors (Kipnis has more) and Kipnis is a full win better in terms of WAR. At best, they're equals. But, I'd take Kipnis all day.

If the Rangers really feel like they are hurting for a 2B with Odor and Profar (which I can guarantee they do not feel that way), I might trade them Dozier straight up for either one. I'd certainly take Odor.

The Red Sox still have Pedroia. They also have Marco Hernandez, who can play 2B, has hit well in limited MLB time, and is only 24.

2B isn't an overly difficult position to fill in general.

I think we just need to let the dream of trading Dozier for a haul of elite SP prospects go.

Edited by Darius, 09 June 2017 - 11:44 AM.

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#53 Darius

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:43 AM

Dozier is one of my favorite Twin players, but I don't think he has the arm to play 3B.

I'd agree with this, he's not big in the arm department.

After watching him get eaten up by that ball in short right against Seattle the other night, and watching him trip over his own feet repeatedly (to the point of even missing a game because of an ankle injury) and fumble double play relays from Polanco, I'm not sure he has the reaction time, hands, or coordination to play 3rd either.

Edited by Darius, 09 June 2017 - 11:45 AM.

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#54 bluechipper

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:46 AM

 

Dozier is highly overvalued by most Twins fans. He's not as good defensively as most seem to think. He's not as good offensively as most seem to think. Nobody is going to pay much for a Dozier rental. He's a decent player, but nothing special (his recent flashy power numbers are offset by plenty of offensive shortcomings, IMO).

I'm a huge Dozier fan, and you probably are too, but I just want to put this out there again. The guy hit 42 HRs last year, setting an AL 2B record. This power, along with good defense and baserunning make a pretty special player. 

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#55 Brandon

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 12:15 PM

Since everyone has a second baseman we may be able to extend Dozier at a reasonable cost. 4 years at 48 to 56 million.12-14 per season.He could play some 2B, 1B, DH and let Mauer who may re-sign for much less after 2018 to be more of a platoon bat mostly DH/ 1B.just that there will be a 1.5 season period where either Polanco or Gordon gets shafted in this process some with some of their playing time taken away and playing out of position. 

 

With Dozier a career Twin he will post nice career numbers of 350 or so HR and around 200 SB and over 1000+ runs scored.That would be nice.

Edited by Brandon, 09 June 2017 - 12:16 PM.


#56 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 12:33 PM

Since everyone has a second baseman we may be able to extend Dozier at a reasonable cost. 4 years at 48 to 56 million. 12-14 per season. He could play some 2B, 1B, DH and let Mauer who may re-sign for much less after 2018 to be more of a platoon bat mostly DH/ 1B. just that there will be a 1.5 season period where either Polanco or Gordon gets shafted in this process some with some of their playing time taken away and playing out of position.

With Dozier a career Twin he will post nice career numbers of 350 or so HR and around 200 SB and over 1000+ runs scored. That would be nice.


There is absolutely no reason to resign Joe Mauer. The Twins aren't lacking potential DH/1B types to slide into those at bats. Especially if Dozier is resigned to take some of them. LaMonte Wade will be pressing for playing time. Mitch Garver may need at bats.

#57 Tomj14

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 12:36 PM

We seem to have pretty good depth at the middle of the infield. (Dozier, Polanco, Escobar and Adrianza) with Gordon on the way.

Tampa just lost Kiermaier and have Brad Miller and Tim Beckham at SS and 2B. How about we offer them Polanco, Jay, and another minor leaguer or two for Chris Archer.

This is without doing any research on Archer's contract situation or what they have for prospects at SS and 2B.


#58 spycake

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 12:42 PM

 

 

How about we offer them Polanco, Jay, and another minor leaguer or two for Chris Archer.

This is without doing any research on Archer's contract situation or what they have for prospects at SS and 2B.

 

Archer is on one of the team-friendliest contracts in MLB, with potential team control through 2021.  Tampa's top prospect is a SS too (Willy Adames, ranked 10-21 in all of MLB on various lists preseason).

 

Not that an offer of Polanco and Jay would get you anywhere, even if the above facts weren't true.

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#59 Tomj14

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 12:47 PM

 

There is absolutely no reason to resign Joe Mauer. The Twins aren't lacking potential DH/1B types to slide into those at bats. Especially if Dozier is resigned to take some of them. LaMonte Wade will be pressing for playing time. Mitch Garver may need at bats.

I am not a huge fan of Mauer, but unless Sano moves to 1B, the twins best 1B prospect in in A ball this year. And Kennys is terrible he has a few good streaks but he in no way should be considered part of the future.

So unless something happens at that position I see the Twins offering Joe a 3 year contract for around 20 million and he probably would take it to be a part time 1B and DH. IMO


#60 yarnivek1972

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Posted 09 June 2017 - 12:50 PM

Between Polanco, Gordon and Dozier, the guy who IMO would have the highest return is Polanco.  He has position flexibility.  He has 5 years of team control remaining after this season.  He's young, but he has shown in his time at the MLB level that he belongs.  He will probably never be a star, but what he will likely be is a guy who's name is written down on a starting lineup 140 or so times a year for the next 10 years.

 

If the Twins want to get the most bang for their trade buck, trading Polanco might be the way to go.




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