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Article: 2017 Twins 10-round Mock Draft

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#1 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 02:31 PM

I’ve always been a fan of mock drafts and this is my favorite exercise to do. This is my fourth annual attempt, though it’s my first attempt with the new group, led by Derek Falvey and Sean Johnson, in charge.

In 2014, I hit on Nick Gordon in the first round (most would have) and landed ninth-round pick Max Murphy in the exact spot he was drafted. Because of that, I will overvalue/overrate Murphy for the rest of his career. Hitting on two of the ten picks was exactly two more correct than I expected to hit on, and I expected some regression the following year.Projecting Dillon Tate first in 2015 was incorrect. And I thought my chances of hitting on anyone was rapidly approaching 0%. But my next two projected picks - Kyle Cody and Trey Cabbage - both heard their names called by the Twins and I had my two picks correct for the second straight year.

Last year, my string of two correct ended, but I did get Kirilloff and had many of the projected picks pegged near where they heard their name come off the board.

This year, with one compensation pick, there will be 11 selections and 11 chances to extend my streak.

To give this an as “realistic” feel as possible, I’ve used composite rankings, but that eliminates getting the correct answer at times, so I’ll be mentioning their Baseball America or MLB.com rankings, but will not hold myself to any rules regarding their rankings.

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First overall (round 1): $7,770,700: RHP Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt. There could be plenty of strategy that comes into play between now and next Monday night. But at this point, there is no reason to believe there’s a better option to come off the board first. There could be some late steam with a few prep players, but ultimately I think the Twins draft Wright, get him signed within a few weeks and save a few hundred thousand to spend later in the draft. (BA: 2; MLB: 3)

35th overall (comp round A): $1,935,300: RHP Blayne Enlow, Louisiana prep. Enlow is a long (6’ 4”), powerful (mid-90s) right-handed pitcher who has impressed this year. I expect the Twins to draft more high-upside pitchers this year… (BA: 33; MLB: 29)

37th overall (round 2): $1,846,100: LHP Jacob Heatherly, Alabama prep. ...and wouldn’t be shocked if they went back-to-back prep arms. While Enlow comes from the pitcher-heavy area scouted by Greg Runser, Heatherly falls in Jack Powell’s area. Heatherly is not as tall (6’ 1”) but also can run it up to the mid-90s. (BA: 64; MLB: 45)

76th overall (round 3): $755,500: C Riley Adams, San Diego. Adams has the bat to play anywhere and might be able to stick behind the plate. While it’s not certain, I think we could see more bat-first players join the organization. The Twins have also used a lot of Top 10 round picks on catchers in the last handful of years and haven’t had a lot of success since drafting another college guy from the southwest: Mitch Garver. (BA: 73; MLB: 73)
106th overall (round 4): $507,000: RHP Michael Baumann, Jacksonville. I like to work in a local player and assuming Sam Carlson isn’t available at 35, drafting a Minnesota prepster who left the state to play collegiately might be the next best guess. Baumann was drafted by the Twins in the 34th round in 2014. His development at Jacksonville has been steady should hear his name called early on Day 2.
136th overall (round 5): $378,700: RHP Bryce Montes de Oca, Missouri. Montes de Oca was one of my favorites out of high school but needed Tommy John and signed with Missouri instead of turning pro. He’s got the 100 mph fastball at his disposal, but he’s still mostly projection, throwing only 69 innings over the last three years, with 61 coming this year as a starter. He struggles with control, but over time could develop into a frontline starter or a flamethrowing reliever. (BA: 147; MLB: 89)
166th overall (round 6): $283,300: LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio prep. A late-bloomer from the midwest who has shown to be one in a shallow pool of quality prep lefties. (BA: 128; MLB: 149)

196th overall (round 7): $220,700: RHP Griff McGarry, California prep. The Twins have had a heavy presence in California over the last handful of years. Though McGarry might not be the route they go, expect that same presence again. McGarry is committed to Vanderbilt and might price himself out of signing by this point, but he has a draftable pair of pitches in his fastball and curveball. (BA: 175; MLB: NR)

226th overall (round 8): $174,400: SS Dalton Guthrie, Florida. Another re-draft and the first “bloodlines” player to be included, as his father is former Twins pitcher Mark Guthrie. The younger Guthrie will start his professional career, though he may eventually have to shift to the right side of the infield. (BA: 169; MLB: 141)

256th overall (round 9): $148,000: C J.J. Schwarz, Florida. During the Twins freefall last year, I started the #suckforSchwarz hashtag. Somehow wires got crossed and instead #Schwarzsucked. I’m still a believer in his bat and I think he’s worth still trying to develop as a catcher. (BA: 375; MLB: 172)
286th overall (round 10): $137,100: OF Reed Rohlman, Clemson. Rohlman is crushing the ball this year for Clemson (.366/.451/.549) with nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (32) and played a phenomenal game in the field against Vanderbilt Sunday night. Though not ranked in BA’s Top 500, he’s the leader of a very good Clemson team and looks like (a left-handed hitting version of) Jayson Werth.

That’s it. 11 picks, seven pitchers, two catchers, a shortstop and an outfielder. Are four preps too many? Are seven pitchers too many? I'd anticipate a cost-saving college senior or two will be drafted as well. We’ll get answers to all these questions a week from tonight.

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#2 Cory Engelhardt

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 02:51 PM

This sounds amazing to me! Love it!

#3 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 03:03 PM

Hmm... my personal cheeseballs aren't in this list.Wanted me some Rooker higher up....Would also love to see them to take Parker Dunshee.

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#4 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 03:05 PM

Brave man, sir.

 

I'd endorse that, if I knew anything about the players. Knowing what I know, I like the idea of the HS pitchers at 35 and 7.....

 

I also love the Schwartz pick. It's like picking up a former top prospect that flamed out in the minors, only earlier. Dude was a top 10 pick after his freshman year.....

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#5 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 03:36 PM

 

Brave man, sir.

 

I'd endorse that, if I knew anything about the players. Knowing what I know, I like the idea of the HS pitchers at 35 and 7.....

 

I also love the Schwartz pick. It's like picking up a former top prospect that flamed out in the minors, only earlier. Dude was a top 10 pick after his freshman year.....

 

I think Michael Baumann fits into that category too, though not a Top 10 pick, he was thought of as a possible 1st/2nd round pick. And weren't there some publications that had Dalton Guthrie ranked in the Top 100 before the season?

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#6 joey emerson

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 03:40 PM

We need pitching in the system but bats seem to have a much better success rate early in the draft id like to see a bat at 35 or 37 maybe one of the SS like allen(if there), downs, mcconnell, or the of Ramos(if there) or 1b like rooker or evan white ( of he is there, a plus defender plus arm plus speed with a future above average to plus hit tool)

#7 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 03:44 PM

I like Schwartz but I think he'll go higher up than that. He had a nice finish to the season, bloodlines and plays catcher.  I think he'll go in the top 5 rounds.

 

I'm not completely sold on your picks at 35/37.  It might depend on what else is there but I'm hoping another college arm falls (Crowe or Lange?) and if Heilot Ramos is there, I'd love him at 35/37. Enlow is one of the many prep arms that I'd like to have an opportunity to nab, though. Heatherly I'm not as high on. pipeline pointed out that he's 19 and has command issues. 

 

Adams and Baumann seem like good college picks.

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#8 Darius

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 04:08 PM

I hate that everyone on the planet has talked themselves out of Hunter Greene at #1, because he's a high schooler. I'll never understand the logic (if any) that says because X and Y failed as high schools RHers, that Z is then a bad pick at #1....no matter the current skill set, projected skill set, and other options available. Going to college for two years, or getting drafted outside of the top 10, doesn't make anyone a different player (aka, they didn't fail because they drafted in the top 10).

Take Greene, the most talented player in the draft, for crying out loud.

Was Wright a RH pitcher in high school at any point? We may want to dig into that and scratch him off the lists.

#9 Thrylos

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 04:13 PM

 

I hate that everyone on the planet has talked themselves out of Hunter Greene at #1, because he's a high schooler. I'll never understand the logic (if any) that says because X and Y failed as high schools RHers, that Z is then a bad pick at #1....no matter the current skill set, projected skill set, and other options available. Going to college for two years, or getting drafted outside of the top 10, doesn't make anyone a different player (aka, they didn't fail because they drafted in the top 10).

Take Greene, the most talented player in the draft, for crying out loud.

 

That is objective.What is not objective is that he is the most talked about player in the draft, but most of his talk is about:

 

a. his fastball

b. him being a two-way player and his athleticism

c. his family

d. his art and other unrelated stuff

 

very little talk is about:

 

a. his secondary stuff (or lack of)

b. how he projects in the majors.

c. the fact that he has struck out fewer high school kids per nine (100 mph fastball and all) in a private church school than McKay did in a major University conference

 

That's the problem with Greene...

Edited by Thrylos, 05 June 2017 - 04:14 PM.

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#10 Thrylos

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 04:15 PM

 

 

I like Schwartz but I think he'll go higher up than that. He had a nice finish to the season, bloodlines and plays catcher.  I think he'll go in the top 5 rounds.

 

Indeed.College Catchers with .850 OPS do not last that long.

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#11 Thrylos

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 04:19 PM

I really want to see them make a play for Seth Romero and Alex Scherff with their second and third picks (supplementary and 2nd round) if they are there.I know I do have Scherff ranked higher than most (BA thinks he is a late 2nd rounder or so) but I do like his stuff

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#12 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 04:22 PM

JJ Schwartz doesn't even catch anymore for Florida, he's the third string catcher behind (Mike Riveria- who will be drafted before JJ) and Mark Kolozsvary.  Anyone who says Schwartz is a catcher has never seen him behind the plate.  Sure he has a decent stick but he's a 1B/DH

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#13 Hrbowski

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 04:29 PM

 

I think Michael Baumann fits into that category too, though not a Top 10 pick, he was thought of as a possible 1st/2nd round pick. And weren't there some publications that had Dalton Guthrie ranked in the Top 100 before the season?

I think that there is a fair chance that Baumann still goes in the second round.

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I hate Trevor Bauer.


#14 nater79a

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 04:45 PM

In my perfect scenario I take Kyle Wright with the first pick.  Then, in the third round I take Connor Wong, catcher, from Houston.

 

Assign both to the same affiliate and we can have Wright pitching to Wong.  A Wright / Wong battery.

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#15 nater79a

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 04:53 PM

At 35 and 37 I like the following prospects:

 

Seth Romero, Clarke Schmidt, Tanner Houck (college pitchers)

 

Heliot Ramos and Mark Vientos (toolsy prep position players)

 

Brent Rooker, Greg Deichmann (productive college bats)

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#16 jsteve96

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 05:13 PM

If Brent rocker is there at 35 or 37 the Twins have to take him.. 1.348 OPS in 60 college games deserves to be noticed..

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#17 caninatl04

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 05:18 PM

Thank you for doing this.

 

I am hoping they will underpay 1:1 enough so they can get better than the 33rd or 29th best prospect with 1:35.

 

On a different note, what happened to JJ Schwarz (no "t").12 months ago, I had him as the Twins' 1:1 this year.


#18 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 06:04 PM

In my perfect scenario I take Kyle Wright with the first pick. Then, in the third round I take Connor Wong, catcher, from Houston.

Assign both to the same affiliate and we can have Wright pitching to Wong. A Wright / Wong battery.


Count me in!

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#19 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 07:13 PM

in my perfect scenario I take Kyle Wright with the first pick.  Then, in the third round I take Connor Wong, catcher, from Houston.

 

Assign both to the same affiliate and we can have Wright pitching to Wong.  A Wright / Wong battery.

Ugh, that was bad. That was "The Tick" level bad.


#20 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 05 June 2017 - 08:45 PM

At 35 and 37 I like the following prospects:
 
Seth Romero, Clarke Schmidt, Tanner Houck (college pitchers)
 
Heliot Ramos and Mark Vientos (toolsy prep position players)
 
Brent Rooker, Greg Deichmann (productive college bats)


This is similar to my list except I would add Jeter Downs and MJ Melendez as well as anyone who drops due to signing concerns, i.e. Carlson or Baz.

I will also be hoping for Connor Wong from Houston (my alma mater), he is a very athletic catcher who plays good D and is a good hitter as well, he batted lead off as a catcher which is pretty rare and showed some pop as well with 11 HRs



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