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Scot Baker back in 2012?

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#1 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 12:22 PM

According to Star Tribune

The Twins likely will decline next year's $9.25 million option for righthander Scott Baker, making him a free agent, but it's possible the sides will agree to an incentive-laden deal.
Baker had Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery on April 18. He started throwing again this past week and expects to be pitching off a mound by late October, with no limitations by spring training.
"I truly believe I'm going to come back 100 percent, if not better, after what I've had to put up with the last two years," he said.
He turns 31 on Sept. 19 and is 63-48 with a 4.15 ERA in seven seasons with the Twins.
"I like it here," Baker said. "I'm not saying there aren't other great organizations because I'm sure there are, but this is all I know. My family likes it here. I'm comfortable."

Many of us have thought this is very possible & Baker sounds like he's all for it.
Im absolutely in favor of an incentive deal.....let him make $10m if makes 32/33 starts with 200+ IP. Give me an injury free season, & money isnt an issue. Scott's better than most FA options out there.
Problem is, I absolutely believe Pavano will be back.....that puts Carl/ 2 Scotts & Blackburn in rotation (Gardy said in last nites postgame...."Blackburn will be in the mix for the starting rotation next yr, but he will have to earn it"...yeah right).
Dont see much change coming.

#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 12:28 PM

I don't see Pavano coming back. JR knows that the team needs to get younger and after Carl's injury "recovery" program, I don't think the organization is very high on him coming back next season. Why would they want him back?

#3 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 12:36 PM

I don't see Pavano coming back. JR knows that the team needs to get younger and after Carl's injury "recovery" program, I don't think the organization is very high on him coming back next season. Why would they want him back?

WHY...cmon PIG. Cause its the Twins/Terry Ryan/Gardy & they LOVE the status quo.
Cant you hear the press conference......"Carl is now healthy & was better than anything on the FA market He is ready to go and we think he can get back to his 2010 form & give us 200 innings next yr. We feel we have 2 aces now with Diamond/Pavano."

#4 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 12:43 PM

I don't see Pavano coming back. JR knows that the team needs to get younger and after Carl's injury "recovery" program, I don't think the organization is very high on him coming back next season. Why would they want him back?

WHY...cmon PIG. Cause its the Twins/Terry Ryan/Gardy & they LOVE the status quo.
Cant you hear the press conference......"Carl is now healthy & was better than anything on the FA market He is ready to go and we think he can get back to his 2010 form & give us 200 innings next yr. We feel we have 2 aces now with Diamond/Pavano."


Do you really think JR is that dumb? Last offseason, he jettisoned two expensive players and signed a cheaper, better replacement in their stead. He also addressed a real need and picked up a multi-faceted backup catcher/DH type and then retained that guy mid-season.

He has money now. This isn't 2003 where his only option was to scrape the barrel to sign Pitcherpotamus or "Lil Pedro". The Twins don't need Pavano. In fact, they need the exact opposite of Carl Pavano. They have the money to go get someone who isn't Carl Pavano. There isn't any reason to believe they will retain Pavano unless they feel the need for a #5 guy to compete with Blackburn (and given Pavano's age and the Twins expectation to compete in 2013, that's unlikely).

Taking a flyer on Scott Baker makes all the sense in the world. Giving Pavano a few million to throw junk innings when you are already paying another guy $5m to throw junk innings doesn't.

#5 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 12:54 PM

This was a great offensive offseason for MN, no question..... However, this team has never changed its pitching philosiphy & I cannot go on good faith until I see it happen. Even last season, the 3 top pitchers they pursued were Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm & Marquis. No great arms there.....none better than a cheaper Pavano. Now, Im NOT advocating they sign Carl, Im just predicting they will fall back into old habits. They can prove they are changing their approach by releasing/trading Blackburn (picking up his salary) but they wont. Other than Edwin Jackson (who's on a winner now), I havent seen any FA's Im in love with but think they will target Joe Blanton/Jeremy Gurhrie types.....they are in Pav's company at least

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 01:01 PM

This was a great offensive offseason for MN, no question.....
However, this team has never changed its pitching philosiphy & I cannot go on good faith until I see it happen. Even last season, the 3 top pitchers they pursued were Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm & Marquis. No great arms there.....none better than a cheaper Pavano. Now, Im NOT advocating they sign Carl, Im just predicting they will fall back into old habits.
They can prove they are changing their approach by releasing/trading Blackburn (picking up his salary) but they wont.
Other than Edwin Jackson (who's on a winner now), I havent seen any FA's Im in love with but think they will target Joe Blanton/Jeremy Gurhrie types.....they are in Pav's company at least


By the time Ryan addressed pitching, he didn't have much money left in the bank to do it. It wasn't surprising they went after Marquis (didn't like the signing but whatever).

Going into this offseason, the Twins have few immediate needs with position players (they can probably get by with their middle infield as-is) and an overwhelming need for starting pitchers. They should also have at least $15m to spend on those pitchers, probably more. This offseason is going to see the best FA pitching crop I've seen in awhile. There is no reason to believe that the Twins won't be competitive in trying to pick up one of those guys.

We've never been in a situation where there were a bunch of quality starters on the market and the Twins had money to spend on them. History has very little to do with the Twins' current situation and what the front office plans to do.

As for releasing Blackburn, there really isn't a reason to do it. Why bother? It doesn't make sense to kick guys to the curb until you have better guys to replace them. The Twins don't have anyone better than Blackburn in the #5 spot right now.

#7 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 01:16 PM

w/Blackie....I am talking about the offseason to get rid of him. Assume when Pav is back, he starts over Blacky & Liam may get 4/5 Sept starts also. It is an arguement on both sides since this is a different money situation since Ryan took back over. I still am in a 'wait & see' mood. I didnt think we spent that much money last offseason on hitting.....just changed out Kubel/Cuddy for Willy/Doumit/Carrol....money spent stayed about the same/just changed team philosiphy on whom to spend it on. I believe they would trade for a 10m pitcher (james shields???) before they would on a FA (TR never been a guy to get into a bidding war). Who are the 'bunch of quality starters'?? There is no way they bid on Grienke, IMO. Drawing a blank on others.

#8 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 01:29 PM

w/Blackie....I am talking about the offseason to get rid of him. Assume when Pav is back, he starts over Blacky & Liam may get 4/5 Sept starts also.
It is an arguement on both sides since this is a different money situation since Ryan took back over. I still am in a 'wait & see' mood.
I didnt think we spent that much money last offseason on hitting.....just changed out Kubel/Cuddy for Willy/Doumit/Carrol....money spent stayed about the same/just changed team philosiphy on whom to spend it on.
I believe they would trade for a 10m pitcher (james shields???) before they would on a FA (TR never been a guy to get into a bidding war).
Who are the 'bunch of quality starters'?? There is no way they bid on Grienke, IMO. Drawing a blank on others.


Jackson, Sanchez, Greinke, Liriano, Marcum, Saunders, Shields (not sure?), Peavy (team option). There are others, those are just the guys off the top of my head. There are a lot of guys entering the market this offseason.

The Twins didn't spend a lot of money on hitting last offseason because JR didn't have a ton of money last offseason. But he spent over $15m on the FA market and spent that money intelligently (in most cases). There is more money available this offseason and there's no reason not to expect the same approach to the market.

Why would you pay Carl Pavano to start for you when you have Nick Blackburn on the roster? I honestly don't see much difference between the two and you're just throwing bad money after bad money at that point. You may as well keep Blackburn around and see if he can return to an acceptable level of play rather than pay Pavano to put forth what might be an equally awful performance in 2013.

#9 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 01:34 PM

I'd bring Pavano back on a minor league deal as it can't really hurt anything. I'd definitely bring Baker back on an incentive based deal, hell give him the $3 mil base you'd give to the next Marquis and let him earn up to 8 mil.

#10 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 01:57 PM

w/Blackie....I am talking about the offseason to get rid of him. Assume when Pav is back, he starts over Blacky & Liam may get 4/5 Sept starts also.
It is an arguement on both sides since this is a different money situation since Ryan took back over. I still am in a 'wait & see' mood.
I didnt think we spent that much money last offseason on hitting.....just changed out Kubel/Cuddy for Willy/Doumit/Carrol....money spent stayed about the same/just changed team philosiphy on whom to spend it on.
I believe they would trade for a 10m pitcher (james shields???) before they would on a FA (TR never been a guy to get into a bidding war).
Who are the 'bunch of quality starters'?? There is no way they bid on Grienke, IMO. Drawing a blank on others.


Jackson, Sanchez, Greinke, Liriano, Marcum, Saunders, Shields (not sure?), Peavy (team option). There are others, those are just the guys off the top of my head. There are a lot of guys entering the market this offseason.

The Twins didn't spend a lot of money on hitting last offseason because JR didn't have a ton of money last offseason. But he spent over $15m on the FA market and spent that money intelligently (in most cases). There is more money available this offseason and there's no reason not to expect the same approach to the market.

Why would you pay Carl Pavano to start for you when you have Nick Blackburn on the roster? I honestly don't see much difference between the two and you're just throwing bad money after bad money at that point. You may as well keep Blackburn around and see if he can return to an acceptable level of play rather than pay Pavano to put forth what might be an equally awful performance in 2013.

Dont love that list. Dont think there is any shot on Grienke....none, IMO.
Like Edwin Jackson alot. Pass on Sanchez, Franke, Saunders....no better than Blanton/Guthrie IMO.
Marcum is a Twins type pitcher.....Pavano like, but can get strikeouts. Elbow injury has to scare many off....esp with this teams medical staff. Do like him if healthy
Peavy has a team option which Ive read CHI may NOT pick up. All in on him if available. Would be a bidding war & that will scare off TRyan IMO.
Shields, by trade, would be my #1 option. He is a tad overrated, BUT in a pitchers park with his durabilit & nice contract (team options) he could be very nice. Could want Span (is from Tampa) among others, as they lose Upton....Tampa loves team friendly contracts.

Edited by greengoblinrulz, 12 August 2012 - 01:59 PM.


#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:01 PM

Out of curiosity, what do you like about Jackson but not Sanchez?

#12 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:03 PM

How well would Peavy fare with MN??? 19 of 22 gms he's gone over 100 pitches (first 2 gms of yr didnt). Twins, with his health status, would limit him to 95/100 per nite. May not be worth 15m you'ld have to give him.

#13 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:09 PM

Out of curiosity, what do you like about Jackson but not Sanchez?

Durability....31+ starts each of last 5 yrs...no arm/shoulder troubles
pretty decent (great for MN) K numbers/control gotten better past 3/4yrs
Harder thrower (94.1 mph per fangraphs/career) for variety on our staff

#14 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:13 PM

Jair Jurrjens, who will probably be non-tendered by the Braves, has been brutal this year. But he's still young and has shown glimpses throughout his career. The Twins should at least take a look, though he's advised by Scott Boras, he'd offer potential for less than a lot of those older guys mentioned above. Plus, he could slot into the "inconsistent tease" slot that Liriano has vacated. I think he would also fit what the Twins will try to do in the offseason... not spend a ton, but potentially - if he returns to his 2011 form - fill a big need. BTW - in 2011, he went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA.

#15 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:17 PM

definately look into Jurrgens....for sure. Like somone with better K rates over him tho

Edited by greengoblinrulz, 12 August 2012 - 02:19 PM.


#16 Badsmerf

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:18 PM

This offseason is much different than last. Baker, Pavano, and Liriano were supposed to anchor the rotation. Baker and Pavano obviously got injured and Liriano imploded. I can't fault JR too much for that, especially considering the FA market was pretty bad. There will be money to spend on someone this year. I really don't understand all your negativity greengoblin. The Twins have had a few bad season with their organizational starting pitchers blowing up. Add Gibson, Baker and a FA to the starting rotation and this team is good again playing meaning baseball. Personally, I want Grienke. Having a rotation of Grienke, Baker, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson will win a lot of games IMO. That would likely be the best rotation in the Central, with a chance to be better. Obviously Baker and Gibson are question marks at this point, but there is enough depth in the system to get by if they need time in AAA at any point in the season.

#17 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:31 PM

This offseason is much different than last. Baker, Pavano, and Liriano were supposed to anchor the rotation. Baker and Pavano obviously got injured and Liriano imploded. I can't fault JR too much for that, especially considering the FA market was pretty bad. There will be money to spend on someone this year. I really don't understand all your negativity greengoblin. The Twins have had a few bad season with their organizational starting pitchers blowing up. Add Gibson, Baker and a FA to the starting rotation and this team is good again playing meaning baseball.

Personally, I want Grienke. Having a rotation of Grienke, Baker, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson will win a lot of games IMO. That would likely be the best rotation in the Central, with a chance to be better. Obviously Baker and Gibson are question marks at this point, but there is enough depth in the system to get by if they need time in AAA at any point in the season.


I dont think Im being negative on it....untill I see MN bid on a FA pitcher/player, I just dont believe they will.
They have a philosiphy & have stuck to it hard. I have no reason to believe they will go away from it.....(includes having money to spend/pitch counts/young players not playing/holding onto junk way too long/soft tossing vet pitchers). Now they have always (??) been fairly active in trades...just not FAgency.
Even the position players they spent on in FA werent 'big' money. 7m for Josh, 3m for Doumit/Carroll. That's still the Twins way of doin things relatively cheaply. Worked out GREAT tho.
They WONT get rid of Blackburn. Jettisoning him will show their is a new way to deal with things. They wont IMO.
I just wont give em the benefit of the doubt....prove it first is my feeling. They will have a 100m payroll (top 10/15) but will still do it on the 'cheap'....not that its a bad thing.

Edited by greengoblinrulz, 12 August 2012 - 02:35 PM.


#18 Badsmerf

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:37 PM

Jair Jurrjens, who will probably be non-tendered by the Braves, has been brutal this year. But he's still young and has shown glimpses throughout his career. The Twins should at least take a look, though he's advised by Scott Boras, he'd offer potential for less than a lot of those older guys mentioned above. Plus, he could slot into the "inconsistent tease" slot that Liriano has vacated.

I think he would also fit what the Twins will try to do in the offseason... not spend a ton, but potentially - if he returns to his 2011 form - fill a big need.

BTW - in 2011, he went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA.


I like Jurrjens a lot. I think it might just be time for a change of scenery for him like it was for Lohse with the Twins. Adding him, one of the 2nd tier starters and this team looks better already.

#19 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:41 PM

I would never go over $10 million per year on a pitcher, and I would never go more than 3 years on a pitcher (unless he's 28 or less). So, that means 3 years and $30 million cap. I think you might be able to get Anibal Sanchez and maybe Edwin Jackson for that. I'd definitely take a flyer on Jurrjens on like a 1 year, $4 million or 2 year, $7 million deal. And, I would absolutely bring back Scott Baker. And, I would absolutely not bring back Carl Pavano.

#20 drunksam

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 02:41 PM


Personally, I want Grienke. Having a rotation of Grienke, Baker, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson will win a lot of games IMO. That would likely be the best rotation in the Central, with a chance to be better. Obviously Baker and Gibson are question marks at this point, but there is enough depth in the system to get by if they need time in AAA at any point in the season.



This. Grienkie, Grienkie, and more Grienkie. He should be a priority target. Diamond/Hendricks/Blackburn/filler until Gibby's ready should be near the top in this division if Grienkie's added. Typing Blackburn's name was painful, but do you have him in the pen or the rotation next year? Doubtful we cut him lose with 5+ million still owed to the swashbuckler.
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