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Eddie Rosario's leash

eddie rosario zach granite daniel palka lamonte wade
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#21 yarnivek1972

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 01:15 PM

The approach plus luck produces the results. If he can't/won't change his approach, you are counting nearly 100% on luck for him to have value compared to other LFers. Counting on luck seems like a bad strategy to me.


I'd say his success is less luck and more basic physical tools. Sure, luck is involved, as with every hitter. But the guy has some physical ability. As a hitter, his success kinda reminds me of Luis Rivas. Did well in his initial call up. But really never seemed willing or able to change his approach and as a result never got better. His physical tools simply allowed him to be successful enough to keep a job until a better option came along. As I indicated before, that likely happens when the Twins feel his productivity can be provided by a minimum salary player.

#22 JustinCB

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 01:16 PM

 

Based on what? 

 

smokes too much reefer


#23 Steve Penz

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 01:19 PM

 

Sub "Buxton" for "Rosario" and let us know how do you feel about it? 

 

Fact: Buxton is hitting worse than Rosario at this point; so his leash should be shorter than Rosario's

Fair point.  Has Rosario ever shown the plate approach that Buxton has?  Buxton has struggled but I don't feel their histories are the same.  I don't mean to turn this into a conversation about that comparison.  My main thought is about the short leash that has been applied to other players since our new FO took over.  He is only 25 so it worries me to cut bait but the line is out there somewhere.  I am wondering where that is.  We have seen the season Hicks is having.  Patience is important too.  

Edited by Steve Penz, 24 May 2017 - 01:21 PM.


#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 01:27 PM

 

I'd say his success is less luck and more basic physical tools. Sure, luck is involved, as with every hitter. But the guy has some physical ability. As a hitter, his success kinda reminds me of Luis Rivas. Did well in his initial call up. But really never seemed willing or able to change his approach and as a result never got better. His physical tools simply allowed him to be successful enough to keep a job until a better option came along. As I indicated before, that likely happens when the Twins feel his productivity can be provided by a minimum salary player.

 

everyone's success is based on process, skill, and luck. In Eddie's case, the process is terrible. You can't count on luck, therefore you need to try to figure out if his skill can overcome his approach. That's what I meant to say, but failed.

 

IMO, no way his skill makes up for his process. He's not that skilled, imo. 

 

But yes, he's good enough (as I said in teh first post I made) that he should start until/unless Wade or Granite force their hands. Or next year.

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#25 wsnydes

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 02:04 PM

 

Based on what? 

or at least define "fine" because our definitions don't appear to be the same.

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#26 Linus

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 02:10 PM

One of the great things about depth is the competition it breeds. Eddie is sitting because Grossman is playing better. He's going to have to do something about that if he wants to play.

#27 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 02:37 PM

I really go back and forth on Rosario, probably because his performance goes back and forth. I actually think that Molitor is using him properly by playing him when he is hot and sitting him  as soon as he starts to cool down.  I agree with others that we need to give this year but this is it for him. Buxton gets more time because he's physically more talented and it's just at the start of consistent playing time. All of this assumes we actually have a replacement and I think the jury is still out on that as well.


#28 Eris

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 02:43 PM

I think one of the aspects of the game that the Twins have improved is taking walks.  This also gives players better pitches to hit and is a reflection of being able to take quality at bats.  Of the regular players only Rosario and Mauer have a decrease in BB%.  The BB% data is from fangraphs.

 

 2016 2017

Sano 10.9  17.1

Buxton  6.9  10.4

Kepler 9.4  11.4

Rosario 3.4  2.9

Dozier 8.8  11.3

Polanco 6.3 8.3

Grossman  14.1 19.1

Mauer  13.7 9.1

 

It looks like either Rosario has not gotten the message about improve this aspect of the game or is not capable of making the adjustments.  Last year there was a lot a criticism directed at Sano.  He is taking much better at bats and the results have improved substantially.  I suspect that unless Rosario's results improve he will sent down.  A trade seems unlikely because his value is low at this time.

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#29 USAFChief

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 02:45 PM

I'm far from sold on Rosario as an every day regular but his BABIP is still .030 below his career line. He gets until the break to see how/when/if he normalizes.

If/when it does, I suspect all it will accomplish is get Rosario back to what he's been the past two years...remarkably consistent and not really very good.

2015: .267/.289/.459
2016: .269/.295/.421
2017: 254/.273/.388

Add 30 pts of babip to his 2017 line and you have Eddie, 2015 and 2016.

He's a decent 4th OFer. Not a guy who should have a starting gig on a good team.
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#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 02:49 PM

 

If/when it does, I suspect all it will accomplish is get Rosario back to what he's been the past two years...remarkably consistent and not really very good.

2015: .267/.289/.459
2016: .269/.295/.421
2017: 254/.273/.388

Add 30 pts of babip to his 2017 line and you have Eddie, 2015 and 2016.

He's a decent 4th OFer. Not a guy who should have a starting gig on a good team.

He's a fringy starter, for sure.

 

But it's not as if the Twins have someone else who profiles significantly better in the OF. And given that Rosario is still only 25 years old, I'm willing to give him more leash. If there was a better option available, I might feel differently about it.

 

Grossman is an option but I don't want him in the field more than once or twice a week, tops.

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#31 drjim

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 03:35 PM

To be fair, I didn't check for games started, only games played. But I doubt the difference is large either direction.


I predict that barring injury this difference will be 10 games by the end of the year.

It's Keplers first full season, they were going to give him a break against lefties early, get his confidence up. He's rolling now.

Like most narratives it was exaggerated from the start and will look silly by the end of the year.
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#32 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 03:37 PM

I think his value/ceiling is as a good 4th outfielder. And I think he'll be valuable as such, at least through his cheap years.
Now the job is to find a replacement to start in LF.
I'm hoping Wade can be in that mix next spring.
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#33 Steve Penz

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 04:10 PM

 

I think one of the aspects of the game that the Twins have improved is taking walks.  This also gives players better pitches to hit and is a reflection of being able to take quality at bats.  Of the regular players only Rosario and Mauer have a decrease in BB%.  The BB% data is from fangraphs.

 

 2016 2017

Sano 10.9  17.1

Buxton  6.9  10.4

Kepler 9.4  11.4

Rosario 3.4  2.9

Dozier 8.8  11.3

Polanco 6.3 8.3

Grossman  14.1 19.1

Mauer  13.7 9.1

 

It looks like either Rosario has not gotten the message about improve this aspect of the game or is not capable of making the adjustments.  Last year there was a lot a criticism directed at Sano.  He is taking much better at bats and the results have improved substantially.  I suspect that unless Rosario's results improve he will sent down.  A trade seems unlikely because his value is low at this time.

Very solid comment.  

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#34 birdwatcher

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 06:44 PM

 

smokes too much reefer

 

 

You can never have too much....never mind, that's pitching.

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#35 Sconnie

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 06:47 PM

The approach has been pretty consistent. The results have not been. Pretty much same story with Dozier really, albeit on a higher plane.

Rosario has been extremely consistent. Consistently swinging at every pitch.

He's got fast enough hands that if he were to have some idea of the zone, he might do well. He's just never shown it.
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#36 yarnivek1972

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 07:12 PM

 

To be fair, I didn't check for games started, only games played. But I doubt the difference is large either direction.

 

 

It isn't.  Rosario has started 37, Kepler 35.  Not including today, according to BR.


#37 Steve Penz

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Posted 21 July 2017 - 12:05 PM

 

If/when it does, I suspect all it will accomplish is get Rosario back to what he's been the past two years...remarkably consistent and not really very good.

2015: .267/.289/.459
2016: .269/.295/.421
2017: 254/.273/.388

Add 30 pts of babip to his 2017 line and you have Eddie, 2015 and 2016

After 2 months, the numbers go up and to the right so I am pleased.  He is at .273/.321/.457.  This is great to see him improve.  I still worry that he is a guy who will overthrow the cut-off man and get caught in a base-running error but nonetheless, this improvement is really good.  

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#38 Steve Penz

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Posted 31 July 2017 - 12:44 PM

Per my comment on 7.21, yesterday the absent-minded stuff showed up from Rosario.

1. He missed a cut-off man.
2. He loafed on a fly ball to very short LF. The sun was hard and Adrianza lost sight of it. Meanwhile, Eddie is slowly jogging in from his position. I feel like he should have recognized the situation, taken control and made a play on the ball. The ball belongs to the IF until the OF calls him off.
3. There was a missed sign while he was on the first. I don't know if he missed it or if Adrianza missed it but it was missed. The result was Eddie loafing into second with no slide and giving away an out.

I keep harping on this because championship teams don't make silly fundamental errors.

He is hitting way better but not enough to offset not keeping his head in the game. At this point I feel like Granite should take LF when Buxton returns.

Edited by Steve Penz, 31 July 2017 - 12:49 PM.

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#39 Eephus

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Posted 31 July 2017 - 01:22 PM

It seems like he has a tendency to slow down as soon as he thinks he can on plays. There's something a little "too cool for school" about it (and knuckleheadish). The play at home where he slowed up because he thought there wouldn't be a play at home was a classic example. Sounds like the missed sign/failed stolen base situation was similiar. Also, I've seen it in the outfield with balls that he thinks are obvious doubles. Once he thinks there won't be a play, he jogs to the ball and lobs it in. Sooner or later this approach backfires. 

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#40 big dog

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Posted 31 July 2017 - 01:27 PM

A good manager would sit him for a few games and ask him if he wants to be in the major leagues.  He's a talented guy, but the mental mistakes are just ridiculous.

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