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Kennys Vargas

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#21 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 08:55 AM

Well, the team should always be looking to improve.  But they have a kid who can provide some things this lineup needs (power) and he's sitting right there.  They just have to play him.

 

Maybe he busts, but you won't find out yanking his playing time erratically on him.  As RB points out - Vargas has managed to be similarly productive over a whole season as Dozier despite getting yanked around.  Time to invest in that and see what you have.

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#22 DaveW

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 08:58 AM

Yeah I'd rather give the everyday at bats to Vargas. Grossman, id still look into trading him for pitching help IMO
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#23 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 09:01 AM

Or Joe Mauer and his 88 OPS+ and 87 wRC+.

 

Time to be a part time player.

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#24 DaveW

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 09:24 AM

Or Joe Mauer and his 88 OPS+ and 87 wRC+.

Time to be a part time player.

Mauer had a rough and unlucky start to the season, but in his last 25 game is sporting a .797 ops with a .364 OBP and gold glove defense, no way should he be out of the lineup.

So far in May he has a .897 ops as well.

Mauer ain't the problem.

Edited by DaveW, 20 May 2017 - 09:25 AM.

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#25 Shaitan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 09:41 AM

Yeah, Vargas is a victim of the logjam at 1B/DH, and that's not even including Park yet.

 

He's getting fairly regular at bats, which is okay. It could be more, but it's not like he's riding the bench.

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#26 Shaitan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 09:42 AM

 

15 HR's in his last 240 PA's ('16/'17) with inconsistent playing time. That sounds like exactly what you want from a DH imo. Just put him in the lineup 5/6 games/wk and see what happens.

Sounds great, but we once felt that way about Arcia too.

 

I think I'm jaded on the prospects of 2014-2016.


#27 Dr. Evil

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 10:02 AM

I would prefer assuring Vargas playing time and Mauer filling in around him vs the other way around. This is a perfect time to do it. At the start of next season we would have a clearer picture of him with consistent playing time under his belt.
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#28 DaveW

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 10:07 AM

 

I would prefer assuring Vargas playing time and Mauer filling in around him vs the other way around. This is a perfect time to do it. At the start of next season we would have a clearer picture of him with consistent playing time under his belt.

IMO there are still plenty of at bats to go around even with Mauer being the everyday starter at 1st.

 

Few things:

-Defensively Mauer is one of the best in the league, when you have Polanco at SS and Sano at 3rd, both of whom are still a little "iffy" it is imperative you have Mauer and his ability to dig out the tough throws. Vargas, while not Ortiz like at 1st base, is closer (at least with my eye test) to below average defensively at 1st.

-As mentioned above, Mauer had a horrendous start to the season, but since then has turned it around: .797 OPS in his last 25 games and a .897 OPS in May, most importantly in his last 25 games or so he is getting on base at a .363 clip.

-I'd prefer that Vargas gets 4-5 starts per week at this stage. 1 at the "cost" of Mauer, 1-2 at the "cost" of Grossman and 1-2 at the "Cost" of Rosario or Kepler (against LHP). Very doable.
 

If the Twins fall 10 games out of the hunt, then yes, he should probably be taking some more at bats away from Mauer, but while they are in contention? nah.

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#29 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 10:11 AM

 

Mauer had a rough and unlucky start to the season, but in his last 25 game is sporting a .797 ops with a .364 OBP and gold glove defense, no way should he be out of the lineup.

So far in May he has a .897 ops as well.

Mauer ain't the problem.

 

He's part of the problem.  Yes, he's been better, but he absolutely can sit 1-2 times a week.

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#30 IndianaTwin

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 10:24 AM

 

He's part of the problem.  Yes, he's been better, but he absolutely can sit 1-2 times a week.

 

He's been out of the starting lineup in 3 of the last 12 games and 4 out of 17. That seems like 1-2 times per week.

 

Edited by IndianaTwin, 20 May 2017 - 10:24 AM.

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#31 DaveW

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 10:29 AM

 

He's part of the problem.  Yes, he's been better, but he absolutely can sit 1-2 times a week.

How is a .897 OPS in May part of the problem? And a .365 OBP since the rough start a problem?

I do agree he should sit once to twice a week, but that is more for maintenance/health to keep him fresh. Not because of productivity. 

Edited by DaveW, 20 May 2017 - 10:29 AM.

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#32 drivlikejehu

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 10:42 AM

The thing about Vargas is that he's actually never been a particularly good hitter, even in the minor leagues (considering his lack of defensive value).

 

He had 609 PAs in AAA with an OPS of .809. His .746 career MLB OPS is perfectly in line with that, as was his .859 AA OPS in 556 PAs. 

 

This would all be fantastic if he was a good defensive shortstop or something, but for a DH it's basically replacement level. There's no reason to think he's capable of more -- he's been the same guy for at least 3 years now.

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#33 Willihammer

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 10:44 AM

 

IMO there are still plenty of at bats to go around even with Mauer being the everyday starter at 1st.

 

Few things:

-Defensively Mauer is one of the best in the league, when you have Polanco at SS and Sano at 3rd, both of whom are still a little "iffy" it is imperative you have Mauer and his ability to dig out the tough throws. Vargas, while not Ortiz like at 1st base, is closer (at least with my eye test) to below average defensively at 1st.

This point deserves more emphasis. Mauer has saved the infield a lot of errors. His athleticism is really helping over there. Not to mention catches like this which Vargas would have no shot at. So unless we have a day game after night game situation with Adrianza and Escobar on the left side, and a lefty on the mound, Mauer should be getting the majority of the PT there. The pitching needs him.

 

At DH, Grossman is still the best option. The dude has more walks than strikeouts. How rare is that anymore? His plate discipline is Votto-esque. Him getting on base in front of Sano has been a huge multiplier for this offense. And he's slugging decently well (14 HRs over his last 500 PAs.) He's a way better baserunner in comparison too. 

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#34 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 11:15 AM

 

The thing about Vargas is that he's actually never been a particularly good hitter, even in the minor leagues (considering his lack of defensive value).

 

He had 609 PAs in AAA with an OPS of .809. His .746 career MLB OPS is perfectly in line with that, as was his .859 AA OPS in 556 PAs. 

 

This would all be fantastic if he was a good defensive shortstop or something, but for a DH it's basically replacement level. There's no reason to think he's capable of more -- he's been the same guy for at least 3 years now.

I agree that this is the right analysis. We don't need to play Vargas to find out what he can do - we know what he can do. He is the classic "meh" player, average to slightly above average bat but no glove and no speed.  Now, he may be the best we now have for the DH position, although Grossman is out hitting him, but doesn't make him the answer. 

 

We should be judging these guys on whether hey are starting caliber players on a contending team. That's what we're trying to build. The good news is that Sano is, and Polanco, Kepler, and Buxton look like they might be, Vargas is not if all he can do is DH and that is all he can do. We should be on the lookout for a good hit no field type guy in Rochester, Chatanooga, on the trade market, waiver wire, etc. and upgrade the DH position.   


#35 akmanak

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 11:21 AM

Vargas is fine now for the DH spot, but it doesn't mean the Twins should stop looking to upgrade it. I wish they would have traded for Joey Gallo like I wanted them to!


I remember you saying something about that trade, I also wish they would of traded Dozier during the winter meetings.

#36 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 11:22 AM

 

If you took the Career Stats of Vargas and the career stats of Dozier and averaged the total to 162 games. There is very little difference in output.

 

http://www.baseball-...vargake01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-...doziebr01.shtml

 

 

Yet Vargas gets labelled inconsistent and Dozier is labelled as crucial. This isn't a slam on Dozier... It's support of Vargas. 

 

Grossman, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Polanco... I love them all but has any of these players out produced Vargas at the plate? Ever? 

 

Has anybody actually seen Vargas be a butcher defensively at 1B or is he being judged against Mauer's really good defense or are people making size assumptions? I've watched a lot of games and Vargas isn't a defensive worry in my opinion. He's Ok enough. 

 

Paul Molitor has to get out of his way. 

The difference is that Dozier plays a premium defensive position reasonably well and Vargas is a below average to poor defensive First Baseman on a team that has an above average to elite defensive 1B on the roster and very young infielders on the left side. Anybody who sees Dozier as "critical" is watching a different team. Dozier is a nice complimentary player, nothing more, and he's likely to be internally replaced within the next 2 years or maybe sooner. We saw Dozier's value when they tried to trade him over the winter and it wasn't that high.   


#37 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 11:25 AM

 

I agree that this is the right analysis. We don't need to play Vargas to find out what he can do - we know what he can do. He is the classic "meh" player, average to slightly above average bat but no glove and no speed.  Now, he may be the best we now have for the DH position, although Grossman is out hitting him, but doesn't make him the answer. 

 

Players evolve and become more than what they were.  Being slaves to their minor league stats isn't a good idea.  He's shown enough to warrant playing time.  The minor league numbers might dampen our expectations, but they shouldn't have us ignore what he's done.  

 

He's earned the playing time his last 200 ABs.  Play him.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 20 May 2017 - 11:27 AM.

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#38 Doomtints

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 11:26 AM

Vargas did a great job last night, teeing off on a wicked curveball that any other Twin would have wiffed on.

 

Keep him in the lineup.

Edited by Doomtints, 20 May 2017 - 11:26 AM.


#39 TheLeviathan

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 11:26 AM

 

How is a .897 OPS in May part of the problem? And a .365 OBP since the rough start a problem?

I do agree he should sit once to twice a week, but that is more for maintenance/health to keep him fresh. Not because of productivity. 

 

The problem is that he isn't sitting 1-2 times a week because he's Joe Mauer.  So whether he's been good in May, bad in December, or whatever - his playing time isn't fluctuating to match his production.  He's in hell or high water and that is part of the problem.


#40 drjim

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 11:41 AM

The problem is that he isn't sitting 1-2 times a week because he's Joe Mauer. So whether he's been good in May, bad in December, or whatever - his playing time isn't fluctuating to match his production. He's in hell or high water and that is part of the problem.


Other than 4 or the last 17 games.

Now that Vargas is up, Mauer will probably sit more, especially against LHs.

Vargas as about a half time DH seems about right at the moment.
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