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Article: Keith Law On The Twins And The 2017 Draft

hunter greene brendan mckay kyle wright keith law smart baseball
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#41 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 04:17 PM

Well, change-ups aren't bad for your arm. But in any case, Greene's currently mediocre off-speed stuff is a huge risk factor. A lot of touted HS arms in the past already had a signature out pitch - Cole Hamels and the change-up, Josh Beckett and the curve, etc.

I have nothing against HS picks, I just don't see 1-1 with Greene. In pro ball he'll sit mid-90s, which is fine but nothing that special these days, and very few prospects develop elite off-speed pitches unless they already had a natural feel for it as an amateur. Plus I think Greene is a particularly bad fit for the Twins, given their pitcher development track record - for sure Greene needs a ton of development, even if you like him as a prospect.

I'm not a scout, so I don't say what the Twins should do, but passing on Greene makes complete sense.


Why would he throw 5 mph less in pro ball?

#42 drivlikejehu

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 05:32 PM

 

Why would he throw 5 mph less in pro ball?

 

He doesn't sit 100 now, or really hit it very often, and he'd be throwing a lot more pitches as a pro. 

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#43 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 09:04 PM

He doesn't sit 100 now, or really hit it very often, and he'd be throwing a lot more pitches as a pro.


Well he sits 98-99 now, I think. And don't 17 year olds typically add a tick or two to their fastball as they mature?

#44 sploorp

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 12:55 AM

I'm tired of the penny wise pound foolish approach of baseball that was such a trademark of the Ryan era.  I keep seeing the team drafting safe and the prospects don't seem to pan out any more than the upside picks.

 

I miss having a bonafide ace.  It's unlikely the team will ever spend the money needed to acquire one via free agency, so the draft is the next best thing.

 

I want real upside.  Just draft Greene and be done with it.

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#45 Steve J

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 01:46 AM

I think I would lean towards Wright because for Green to reach his higher ceiling he would have to depend on a Twins development system that lately has not produced a whole lot of quality major league arms. 


#46 caninatl04

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 06:18 PM

Do potential draft picks go through any kind of physicals? Although MRIs would be wonderful, could a Twins doctor at least look at a $5 million arm

#47 Twins33

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 08:13 PM

Do potential draft picks go through any kind of physicals? Although MRIs would be wonderful, could a Twins doctor at least look at a $5 million arm

Yes they go through physicals.

#48 drjim

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 08:15 PM

Of course they go through medicals/physicals/MRIs/etc, but they aren't black and white, especially for a pitcher.
Papers...business papers.

#49 drivlikejehu

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 08:24 PM

 

Well he sits 98-99 now, I think. And don't 17 year olds typically add a tick or two to their fastball as they mature?

 

I don't think he averages 98+. You could share a link if you've read that. But in any case, high schoolers don't necessarily add velocity when they transition to pro ball. Some do, some stay the same, some decrease. As a general rule though, velocity peaks young - so young that just measuring MLB players isn't sufficient.

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#50 Twins33

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 08:35 PM

The most common range I see for Greene is 93-98 and can hit 100+ here and there. That's just from clicking multiple links via google. He throws harder at the beginning of the game, high 90s and then drop down to mid 90s later in the game.

#51 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 08:45 PM

I don't think he averages 98+. You could share a link if you've read that. But in any case, high schoolers don't necessarily add velocity when they transition to pro ball. Some do, some stay the same, some decrease. As a general rule though, velocity peaks young - so young that just measuring MLB players isn't sufficient.


So if some gain velocity, some lose, and some stay the same, then again, why do you think he'll lose velocity?

Wright sits 93-95 now, I think. (Mid-90's) Did he also hit 100+ frequently in HS? Since he now throws where you expect Greene to in a couple years?

#52 luckylager

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 09:04 PM

In spite of every argument to the contrary, I am all-in on Hunter Greene. I will be disappointed in any other selection.  He has the potential to be amazing. You gotta take a chance on that kind of potential. Sure, the probability is he falls short of the hype. But if the Twins pass and does he becomes a once in a generation talent we'll be kicking ourselves in the a$$ for not taking a shot.  


#53 Willihammer

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 09:18 PM

Wright was 87-90 in high school according to MLB.com. 

 

Personally I'm less concerned about where Greene's velocity will be in 4-5 years and more concerned about his arm holding up. He threw all of 28 innings this season. That's not much of a test if you ask me. Wright is up to 89.2 and counting. We know the best predictor of future health is past health. By the same token it seems likely that someone who get through a full college season healthy would be more of a guarantee health-wise than someone who doesn't even finish a high school season. But I dont' know that there's any research to support / disprove that theory.

Well, there's that.

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#54 Thrylos

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 01:16 PM

 

 

 

 

2) McKay's reported drop in velocity over his last 3 starts scares the bejeezus out of me.

 

 

Have you checked Greene's velocity the past few weeks?Maybe McKay is not pitching at 100% trying to save his arm as well...

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#55 enge0280

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Posted 22 May 2017 - 06:55 PM

Have you checked Greene's velocity the past few weeks?Maybe McKay is not pitching at 100% trying to save his arm as well...


Greene hasn't pitched in weeks, so hard to compare. I am leaning Wright anyway, but if the front office believes in any of them, then I will try my best to believe in that player too
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#56 drivlikejehu

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Posted 22 May 2017 - 07:31 PM

 

So if some gain velocity, some lose, and some stay the same, then again, why do you think he'll lose velocity?

Wright sits 93-95 now, I think. (Mid-90's) Did he also hit 100+ frequently in HS? Since he now throws where you expect Greene to in a couple years?

 

I never said he would lose it, I just don't think he currently sits in the high 90s throughout his games, and don't think it's likely he would in pro ball either (as a starter).

If you ain't got no haters, you ain't poppin'.


#57 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 22 May 2017 - 07:36 PM

 

Greene hasn't pitched in weeks, so hard to compare. I am leaning Wright anyway, but if the front office believes in any of them, then I will try my best to believe in that player too

Greene has a scheduled bullpen session coming up this week

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#58 drjim

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Posted 22 May 2017 - 07:38 PM

Greene has a scheduled bullpen session coming up this week


Looking like shutting it down might have cost him some money.
Papers...business papers.

#59 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 22 May 2017 - 07:41 PM

 

Looking like shutting it down might have cost him some money.

I'd be shocked if he slipped past #3 to San Diego, so not exactly costing him big bucks

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#60 drjim

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Posted 22 May 2017 - 07:46 PM

I'd be shocked if he slipped past #3 to San Diego, so not exactly costing him big bucks


I know there are other factors and wouldn't play this way exactly, but there is over a $1mil difference between Twins and Padres.
Papers...business papers.



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