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Article: Twins Minor League Report (5/15): Gibson Ks 10

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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 10:09 AM

I still think he's a slightly above average MLB SS for a long time. Not elite, but good. Which is great, that's a very nice player to have. I'd rather Trea Turner was here, and had been for 2 years now, but whatever.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#22 spycake

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 10:25 AM

 

Based on the numbers, he looks like an extremely rounded hitter. I always thought that would be the case with Gordon, but I thought he'd be a .750-.775 rounded hitter, not an .850 rounded hitter.

I think he is still in that range.  Seems unlikely that he finishes at .850 this year, based on components thus far.  Just regressing his BABIP to .355 (which would still be a career high for him), which is simply taking away 4 singles from his 2017 line, and he'd be having a .798 OPS so far.  Downgrade two triples to doubles (which would give him a career normal triples rate, and a career high double rate) and he'd be at .784.


#23 spycake

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 10:32 AM

 

Randy Rosario is frequently left out of the 'Chattanooga has a great bullpen' discussion, but is having a great season. He has yet to be adopted, but is a hard-throwing (94-95 mph) left-hander, is on the 40-man roster, and is averaging 2.4 innings per outing (i.e. definitely a candidate for long reliever).

Would still like to see more K's from Rosario, even if it mean throwing fewer innings, but he is definitely better in the pen this year than starting last year.

 

I think Rosario's injury in 2014 will make him eligible for a fourth option year in 2019, but still, it would be nice to see some urgency in potentially getting near-future MLB contributions from someone among our bullpen prospects.


#24 howieramone2

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 10:35 AM

 

Gordon is looking pretty good, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  He has a .391 BABIP this year, and his ISO bump is largely dependent on triples.  His BB% is up, but his K% is too, and his SB are way down.  He's still a solid prospect, no doubt, but I think it's early to suggest he's ascending to elite status.

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#25 yarnivek1972

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 10:44 AM

Would still like to see more K's from Rosario, even if it mean throwing fewer innings, but he is definitely better in the pen this year than starting last year.

I think Rosario's injury in 2014 will make him eligible for a fourth option year in 2019, but still, it would be nice to see some urgency in potentially getting near-future MLB contributions from someone among our bullpen prospects.


I have never heard of such a thing. Perhaps if it is a new rule.

#26 bluechipper

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 10:48 AM

Kyle Gibson's start doesn't encourage me much. The thing he's supposed to be working on is attacking the strike zone. I wonder how many of those 10 K's would turn into even more walks if he were facing more disciplined MLB hitters.

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#27 spycake

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 10:51 AM

 

I have never heard of such a thing. Perhaps if it is a new rule.

Players get a fourth option year if they've used all 3 of their options before they have 5 "full" pro seasons.  "Full" generally means above short-season leagues (i.e. rookie ball) but there is a disabled list component too, and I think Rosario would be eligible based on his 2014 not being "full" (he spent fewer than 30 days active before spending the rest of the season on the DL).

 

http://www.thecubrep...xport/html/3521


#28 Darius

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 11:29 AM

Walks are still a little concerning. But only 6 hits and 10 Ks means his "stuff" was probably good.

It can't be emphasized enough how huge it would be if he could figure some things out, and come back up and pitch well for a sustained period of time. Could be the difference between pretender and contender.

#29 nater79a

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:04 PM

 

I noticed Crawford is hitting .155 for Leigh Valley.I am sure that is driving the Philly fans nuts.Isn't he a top 10 prospect?

 

Wow. Wasn't Crawford like top-5 as little as a year ago? Man...


#30 nater79a

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:14 PM

 

A postponement in the Rockie series would likely mean a double header this week. They won't bring Colorado back unless they have no choice. Tonight should be okay. Tomorrow looks iffy. Could mean a double header Thursday. The Rockies go to Cincy next, so an evening game departure would be okay.

 

You don't think they'd try to shoehorn in a makeup game later in the season on a dual off day for both teams. Doubt they'd do a day-night doubleheader on the Rockies getaway day. Traditional double header, I guess, is possible but that affects the cash register (cha-ching!).


#31 nater79a

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:35 PM

 

Gordon is looking pretty good, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  He has a .391 BABIP this year, and his ISO bump is largely dependent on triples.  His BB% is up, but his K% is too, and his SB are way down.  He's still a solid prospect, no doubt, but I think it's early to suggest he's ascending to elite status.

 

Well, compared to some of our other 1st rounders I'll take it!


#32 Dantes929

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:40 PM

 

Kyle Gibson's start doesn't encourage me much. The thing he's supposed to be working on is attacking the strike zone. I wonder how many of those 10 K's would turn into even more walks if he were facing more disciplined MLB hitters.

I guess it can go both ways.  Kind of depends on the at bats. Were they 3-2 counts where he threw sliders to get them to chase or were they 3-0 counts where he didn't have command. I will go with slightly encouraged.  Its better than his other start.  I don't know what to make of him. Two years ago he would throw clunkers but at least as often as not he would throw a gem and I am ok with that in a 3-5 starter.  ST seemed encouraging but I understand the short leash.  He just hasn't produced.

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#33 TRex

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 07:03 AM

 

I think he is still in that range.  Seems unlikely that he finishes at .850 this year, based on components thus far.  Just regressing his BABIP to .355 (which would still be a career high for him), which is simply taking away 4 singles from his 2017 line, and he'd be having a .798 OPS so far.  Downgrade two triples to doubles (which would give him a career normal triples rate, and a career high double rate) and he'd be at .784.

... or add another triple and a HR and you have mass confusion! Now you have to downgrade three triples to doubles, two doubles to singles, 2 HR to triples... and then another triple to a double, and another double to a single. Do I have that right?

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#34 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 10:37 AM

 

I think he is still in that range.  Seems unlikely that he finishes at .850 this year, based on components thus far.  Just regressing his BABIP to .355 (which would still be a career high for him), which is simply taking away 4 singles from his 2017 line, and he'd be having a .798 OPS so far.  Downgrade two triples to doubles (which would give him a career normal triples rate, and a career high double rate) and he'd be at .784.

It's possible he's still in that range and his BABIP is unsustainably high but there's more going on with Gordon than just getting hits.

 

His walks are back up to an acceptable level (9.3%) but his K rate has held close to steady (19.8%, up a couple of points over last season).

 

But the real difference is the power. Now, he's coming out of the FSL so we should expect a power surge but Gordon's ISO has jumped from .095 to .185 at the same time he made a significant jump in talent level, as he's now playing in AA at just 21 years old.

 

Last season, Gordon had 493 PAs with 23 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR.

 

This season, Gordon has 162 PAs with 8 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR. He's on pace to add 50% to his XBH total and more of those XBH are going for 3+ bases.

 

That's the kind of trend you expect and want to see with a lean 21 year old player. All he did was smack doubles last season. This season, more of those doubles are turning into triples or leaving the park.

 

Time will tell whether this holds but there are reasons to be optimistic.

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#35 Jaykay

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 10:58 AM

 

Wow. Wasn't Crawford like top-5 as little as a year ago? Man...

 

4th on MLB this year. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017

 

He'll move down on the midterm rankings. 


#36 spycake

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 11:02 AM

Brock, to be fair, Gordon added a triple and a HR since my post. :)

Although it is still a small sample. Before yesterday he had 2 HR, for a full season pace of 6 HR. Better than where he was before but not necessarily indicative of a real meaningful improvement in the power department.

Triples are also pretty variable, as we've seen with Rosario, especially in the minors. Seeing that Gordon doubled his rate of hitting triples, with only a modest improvement in HR rate, was another reason I questioned his power improvement.

#37 thegambler

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 05:29 AM

What's going up with Tanner English? Moving back down to A ball? He was in Rochester last year.

#38 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 06:35 AM

 

It's possible he's still in that range and his BABIP is unsustainably high but there's more going on with Gordon than just getting hits.

 

His walks are back up to an acceptable level (9.3%) but his K rate has held close to steady (19.8%, up a couple of points over last season).

 

But the real difference is the power. Now, he's coming out of the FSL so we should expect a power surge but Gordon's ISO has jumped from .095 to .185 at the same time he made a significant jump in talent level, as he's now playing in AA at just 21 years old.

 

Last season, Gordon had 493 PAs with 23 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR.

 

This season, Gordon has 162 PAs with 8 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR. He's on pace to add 50% to his XBH total and more of those XBH are going for 3+ bases.

 

That's the kind of trend you expect and want to see with a lean 21 year old player. All he did was smack doubles last season. This season, more of those doubles are turning into triples or leaving the park.

 

Time will tell whether this holds but there are reasons to be optimistic.

 

FSL tends to suppress power as well... that is something that cannot be stated enough. When evaluating power in the FSL, you really need to look at it in context to the rest of the league.


#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 06:39 AM

 

FSL tends to suppress power as well... that is something that cannot be stated enough. When evaluating power in the FSL, you really need to look at it in context to the rest of the league.

Yeah, I briefly mentioned that but it's an important point to note.

 

Though Gordon has nearly as many triples in 2017 as he did in all of 2016. Now, we're dealing with relatively small numbers here so that could be an aberration but given the size of FSL stadiums, if Gordon was really ripping the ball in 2016, he probably should have had more triples. He's not nearly as fast as his brother but he's supposed to have pretty good wheels.

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#40 spycake

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 08:37 AM

Fangraphs has wRC+ for minor league hitters, which does some adjusting for league and park, and Gordon was doing pretty well (above average) up until this year, even with the lack of power.
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