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Article: The Scouting Skinny: Kyle Wright

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#41 drjim

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 02:27 PM

 

shouldn't it be? If they fail at pitching, they have a good shot at playing the field, apparently. That seems like it would be more valuable.

 

Or am I reading this wrongly?

 

I don't think so at all. I want to bet on the highest probability one way or the other.

 

I think going through 2-3 years of development one way and then switching and thinking you'll get any type of significant value is more theoretical than reality.

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#42 drjim

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 02:30 PM

 

If a team was willing to let them do both I'd find value.

 

If it's the old fashioned way where they do one for 6 years, struggle and then transition to the other then I'd think all the service time lost kills the value.

 

I don't think it is service time, it is development time. If you take 2-3 years off one way, the chances of recouping value the other way are really slim.

 

If I was drafting I would put no weight in that small probability. I would take the best hitter or pitcher and go with it.

 

If they judge McKay the best pitcher, I can live with that. But if they think Wright is a better pitcher than McKay, but there is also some possible value from McKay hitting if he struggles as a pitcher so they take him, that is a mistake.

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#43 Lonestar

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 02:54 PM

I looked up Wright's last 5 starts and compared them to McKay's in the same time period. SSS but not necessarily cherry picking

ERA 1.14 | 1.26
BB% 5.11% | 9.43%
SO% 37.23% | 33.02%
G0/FO 1.78 | 0.77

Wright had slightly stronger competition.

We know there's more to command and control than BB% and SO%.

McKay had one 5-inning start without his best stuff. He also missed a start for reason unknown to me. He was experimenting with a new cutter.

Some would give the edge to McKay because he is an LHP. Some wouldn't draft a LHB 1B at 1-1 because Target Field is hard on LH power. That same reasoning would apply to LHP's. I don't get either. That is, the Twins are going to need some left handedness.

Left handedness could be a tie breaker if they were tied. I think Wright is the better pitching prospect.

#44 gunnarthor

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 04:21 PM

Is one of the two (McKay/Wright) considered a ground ball pitcher or fly ball pitcher or are they both about normal?


#45 Twins33

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 06:05 PM

That is, the Twins are going to need some left handedness.

Left handedness could be a tie breaker if they were tied. I think Wright is the better pitching prospect.

i don't think you swear off all left handed hitters obviously, but it feels like you have to have a certain type of power from that side. A Vargas is fine. I don't know how McKay grades for power but I've heard 20-25 as a possibility so that would put him as above average to plus. Does that reduce in Target Field? I think it's a legit concern.

Looking back, The Twins haven't had a huge sample of lefties with power either: Thome, Morneau for half a season pre-concussion, Kubel, Arcia and now Vargas switch hitting and if Kepler develops it. So I guess it could be the sample size but I know even some of those guys had a harder time hitting them out in the new ballpark.

I agree with your last comment about Wright though. I do think if it's pitching wise, I'd go Wright over McKay.

#46 Lonestar

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 06:18 PM

 

Is one of the two (McKay/Wright) considered a ground ball pitcher or fly ball pitcher or are they both about normal?

 

G0/FO Wright 1.78 | McKay 0.77


#47 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 06:45 PM

 

shouldn't it be? If they fail at pitching, they have a good shot at playing the field, apparently. That seems like it would be more valuable.

 

Or am I reading this wrongly?

One more comment on this Mike.

If Wright blows out his arm he can play 1B.

If Greene blows out his arm he cannot play SS. Or 3B or 2B.

 

And the HS pitching he is facing is so much further from MLB than the pitching McKay is facing. It would definitely be an entire restart (low A at best) for Greene.

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#48 Sam Morley

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 06:57 PM

Does anybody think that either Greene or McKay can play the field and hit daily and then take a turn starting pitching every fifth day over a full major league season?

My opinion is that that would be impossible. There is no way to effectively dedicate yourself to both the craft hitting and the craft of pitching (not to mention fielding).

The only possible two way value for an American League team would be if they were a starting pitcher who could be used as a pinch hitter.

If either of these guys are a legit top 25 prospect as a hitter, I think they should hit first, and hitting at each level until they fail before going back to pitching. Elite hitters are more valuable than elite pitchers.

Does anybody know where these guys rank as hitters/position players independent from their status as pitchers? McKay is supposed to be the top college pitcher and the top college hitter, right? Is Greene the top prep hitter as well as being the top prep pitcher?

#49 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 08:04 PM

Does anybody think that either Greene or McKay can play the field and hit daily and then take a turn starting pitching every fifth day over a full major league season?
My opinion is that that would be impossible. There is no way to effectively dedicate yourself to both the craft hitting and the craft of pitching (not to mention fielding).
The only possible two way value for an American League team would be if they were a starting pitcher who could be used as a pinch hitter.
If either of these guys are a legit top 25 prospect as a hitter, I think they should hit first, and hitting at each level until they fail before going back to pitching. Elite hitters are more valuable than elite pitchers.
Does anybody know where these guys rank as hitters/position players independent from their status as pitchers? McKay is supposed to be the top college pitcher and the top college hitter, right? Is Greene the top prep hitter as well as being the top prep pitcher?


Greene has been described as a possible top ten pick as a hitter

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#50 gunnarthor

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 08:39 PM

 

Greene has been described as a possible top ten pick as a hitter

I'm not sure that's right, Mike. McKay has been listed as top 10 as both but Greene, to my knowledge, has not.


#51 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 08:44 PM

I'm not sure that's right, Mike. McKay has been listed as top 10 as both but Greene, to my knowledge, has not.


KLAW had said it. I have quoted it on these boards
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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#52 drivlikejehu

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 08:46 PM

The level of experience is a huge difference between Greene and McKay. Greene is not really a two-way player in any meaningful sense because <a> he's obviously a better prospect as a pitcher and <b> by the time a switch could be made, he'd be at least several years removed from facing even HS-level opposition. At least McKay faced SEC players. He'd be rusty but the baseline experience would still be a huge help.

Edited by drivlikejehu, 17 May 2017 - 08:47 PM.

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#53 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 05:55 AM

Greene seems like the sexiest pick. But it does seem like a strong argument can be made / has been made that Wright is the best pitcher in the draft, and should be the pick. I also agree that the "two-way" bonus that Greene and McKay both receive is a red herring that is inflating their value.

If the rub on Wright is that he has control issues, does he recent stretch of low walk starts change that?
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#54 SadMinnySportsFan

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 06:58 AM

I can see the argument to be made for Wright. Seems like he'll be a good pitcher. Not a McKay guy. his floor seems the highest, but his ceiling the lowest. When you have the first overall pick, you don't take a safe guy. Go big or go home Twins, pick the kid with highest ceiling and take Greene please!

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#55 Lonestar

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 08:11 AM

There's a difference between throws the hardest and highest ceiling. FWIW, Jordon Adell might have the highest ceiling.

There's also something to be said for highest expected value. Some would say that's McKay. I give the edge to Wright because of his perceived ceiling and relative margin for error (velocity).

Some speculate that McKay could be MLB ready this year -- in time for a playoff push. Wright might be ready after next year's Super 2 deadline.
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#56 Steve Lein

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 08:50 AM

 

Greene has been described as a possible top ten pick as a hitter

 

I've seen a lot of "first round" descriptions as a hitter, not necessarily top 10. He's come on a little at the end of the season now that he's not pitching, but just a few weeks ago he was hitting below .300 on the year. I don't think he had nearly that consensus as a hitter anymore.

 

He's going as a pitcher, that is certain at this point.

 

Mckay is definitely top 10 both ways. The best college hitter almost always goes top 10 or top 5 (as long as they are competent at a position).

 

Last 4 or 5 years have been pretty good for top college hitters.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Steve Lein, 18 May 2017 - 09:01 AM.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#57 ALessKosherScott

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Posted 18 May 2017 - 09:55 AM

 

Some would give the edge to McKay because he is an LHP. Some wouldn't draft a LHB 1B at 1-1 because Target Field is hard on LH power. That same reasoning would apply to LHP's. I don't get either. That is, the Twins are going to need some left handedness.
 

 

If he's a hitter, my guess is the best case scenario is he's something of a Joe Mauer type, so he can still be of value but he needs to be a .300 hitter with a lot of doubles to play out. As a pitcher, I'd guess his good curve ball makes him a little more effective on righties and gives him a bit more neutral of a platoon split. But a lefty fly ball pitcher at Target Field scares the beejeebus out of me.

 

I'll take Hunter Greene and the 70 fastball for $1000, Alex. 

 

 

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#58 TRex

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 08:13 AM

 

One more comment on this Mike.

If Wright blows out his arm he can play 1B.

If Greene blows out his arm he cannot play SS. Or 3B or 2B.

 

What is your reasoning that Greene couldn't play SS, 3B or 2B? Miguel Sano still has plenty of arm strength for 3rd base, and arm-strength isn't a problem at 2B.


#59 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 10:27 AM

 

What is your reasoning that Greene couldn't play SS, 3B or 2B? Miguel Sano still has plenty of arm strength for 3rd base, and arm-strength isn't a problem at 2B.

I'm not referring to the ability to throw the ball 95+ MPH. I'm talking about ruining the arm in such a way that hard throws are not possible. This is not nearly as frequent as it was pre-TJS, but I believe it still happens. Radke had no business being on a pitchers mound his last few months. He was still pretty good, but he his arm was toast. I doubt very much that he could throw a ball from second base to home by December of that year (2006).

 

Miguel Sano had TJS. If we draft a pitcher who later needs TJS that is a setback, but it does not mean he is lost to the team as an asset.

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#60 TRex

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Posted 19 May 2017 - 02:38 PM

 

I'm not referring to the ability to throw the ball 95+ MPH. I'm talking about ruining the arm in such a way that hard throws are not possible. This is not nearly as frequent as it was pre-TJS, but I believe it still happens. Radke had no business being on a pitchers mound his last few months. He was still pretty good, but he his arm was toast. I doubt very much that he could throw a ball from second base to home by December of that year (2006).

 

Miguel Sano had TJS. If we draft a pitcher who later needs TJS that is a setback, but it does not mean he is lost to the team as an asset.

The note about Radke is a good point... sometimes one forgets that all pitcher maladies are not healed by TJS. A torn labrum would certainly have a huge impact on converting to a position player.

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