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Article: The Scouting Skinny: Kyle Wright

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#21 Steve Lein

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:36 PM

From what I recall, Mckay hasn't ever had the mid-90's velocity some here seem to think he did have.

 

Pretty sure it's always been high 80's low 90's, touching a little higher, 93 maybe.

 

But what I did see this last weekend, is multiple reports about him using a "new" cutter, and that it was mid-80's. Based on that, I'm fairly certain reports about the new cutter and velocity being down are related.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#22 Willihammer

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:41 PM

I've not read anything suggesting McKay has mid-90s velo. 90-94 was/is the book on him. But there's been no mention of a cutter until recently.

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Well, there's that.

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#23 Willihammer

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:42 PM

 

 

But what I did see this last weekend, is multiple reports about him using a "new" cutter, and that it was mid-80's.

Link?

Well, there's that.

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#24 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:48 PM

 

I've not read anything suggesting McKay has mid-90s velo. 90-94 was/is the book on him. But there's been no mention of a cutter until recently.

From BA:

 

He excels at locating his 89-93 mph fastball to his glove side, pitching inside to righthanded hitters with aplomb and pitching on the black of the plate with angle consistently. His advanced fastball command—his best attribute as a pitcher. McKay’s curveball, like his fastball, earns above-average grades. He commands it, lands it and buries it for strikeouts, and scouts believe both pitches could improve to true plusses if McKay gave up hitting and focused on pitching, particularly in terms of a consistent starter’s routine. His changeup is a third pitch that he uses rarely and will have to improve as a pro. He could be a middle-of-the-order hitter or No. 3 starter, the latter in short order. His baseball athleticism was evident in his quick pickup of a cut fastball in late April, which helped him add a fourth pitch to his repertoire.
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#25 Willihammer

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 12:59 PM

 

From BA:

Sickels has him 90-94. Nobody has suggested anything higher than that.

 

Whichever range you want to believe, the 88-90 in his last outing would be on the low side, which is why I'm asking for links to reports about his cutter being mid-80s. I haven't come across those reports, and they haven't been linked to in the main draft thread (or here).

 

If we can't get confirmation on his cutter velo then this concern about 88-90 in his last outing could be much ado about nothing. That's what I'm trying to figure out.

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Well, there's that.

-Dark Star, RIP


#26 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 01:01 PM

This turned from a Wright thread to a McKay thread pretty quickly.

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#27 Steve Lein

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 01:17 PM

 

Link?

 

Baseball America had at least one guy at the game, bunch of more stuff in his timeline. This is one I saw:

 

 

There were also these from him:

 

 

 

So maybe it wasn't the cutter specifically and he did have a "bad" day, but probably overblown.

 

Game story: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/dan-mcdonnell-gets-500-behind-brendan-mckays-gutty-effort/#FKZEji4E6fSUvqe6.97

 

Edited by Steve Lein, 16 May 2017 - 01:33 PM.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#28 Willihammer

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 01:25 PM

 

Baseball America had at least one guy at the game, bunch of more stuff in his timeline. This is one I saw:

 

 

There were also these from him:

 

 

 

So maybe it wasn't the cutter and he did have a "bad" day, but probably overblown.

Thanks, that's exactly what I was looking for. It should give us confidence in the 88-90 mph velo FB readings then. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

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Well, there's that.

-Dark Star, RIP


#29 drjim

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 01:55 PM

Looks like McKay and Wright will each get one more start before conference and ncaa tournaments start, so probably at least 3, maybe 4-5 more starts before the draft.

 

Also interesting that the college world series starts 5 days after round 1 of the draft. Vandy and Louisville have a good reputation for not overworking their pitchers.

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#30 Respy

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 02:08 PM

Wright doesn't look very balanced and controlled on the mound for someone who throws in the low 90's.  He's likely going to need to develop a change-up to be a successful right-handed starting pitcher.  Aside from the two stellar recent starts, I'm just not seeing the upside here.

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#31 drjim

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 02:57 PM

 

Wright doesn't look very balanced and controlled on the mound for someone who throws in the low 90's.  He's likely going to need to develop a change-up to be a successful right-handed starting pitcher.  Aside from the two stellar recent starts, I'm just not seeing the upside here.

 

He was a top 5 guy coming into the year. And he's been really good for 5 of his last 6 starts. He has size and stuff. Him and Greene are the only two that could become #1s in my mind.

 

He had a slow start to the season, but has really picked it up recently, and is now performing at quite a high level.

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#32 Twins33

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 03:49 PM

If someone told you McKay as a 1B would mash HR's and also hit for avg would you still go pitcher at 1-1, Seth? It's true, corner infielders rarely get picked at #1 and pitching is super important.

We also have to remember that he's a left batter and it seems like left power is reduced at Target Field, where he'd play half his games.
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#33 Sweetwater

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 04:13 PM

I'm scared this team is going to pass on Greene and majorly regret it when he becomes Roy Halladay or something.

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#34 DocBauer

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:03 PM

We all know the baseball draft is the biggest crapshoot of all sports drafts. Despite scouting, rankings, performance, potential, athleticism, velocity, raw power, etc, etc, the dipping and darting of a high velocity round ball being hit by a round bat still remains a complex mystery of success to predict.

You still draft for potential. But is it so wrong to also draft a pick that feels "safe"? I am not knocking Greene or McKay in any way. Both could turn out to be high quality major leaguers. But Greene, so young, so far away, even with his tremendous FB would seem to be the greatest risk of the three without solid confirmation of at least that second pitch. McKay seems to be a quality pitcher, is LH, and offers at least decent velocity. But it seems to me Wright offers the frame, velocity, and quality secondary pitches to not only have a high ceiling, but to be the more "proven" and "safer" pick to succeed. Without a Clemens, Strasburger or Harper available, I think you balance potential and safety of your choice and that just seems to say Wright to me.
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#35 nater79a

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 12:16 AM

 

Looks like McKay and Wright will each get one more start before conference and ncaa tournaments start, so probably at least 3, maybe 4-5 more starts before the draft.

 

Also interesting that the college world series starts 5 days after round 1 of the draft. Vandy and Louisville have a good reputation for not overworking their pitchers.

 

Always enjoy watching  the College World Series.  But I especially enjoy watching it when the Twins draft a player that then ends up playing on one of the participating teams. I remember back in 2013 the Twins drafted Ryan Eades and then he played for LSU in the CWS a week or so later. Just kind of cool.

 

I guess we could possibly see the same with Brendan McKay or Kyle Wright this year as both are in the mix for the #1 pick and Louisville and Vandy are decent bets for Omaha.

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#36 prouster

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 09:01 AM

Wright doesn't look very balanced and controlled on the mound for someone who throws in the low 90's. He's likely going to need to develop a change-up to be a successful right-handed starting pitcher. Aside from the two stellar recent starts, I'm just not seeing the upside here.


Do you mean McKay? Wright usually sits 93-95 and has topped out at 97. I don't know enough about mechanics to comment extensively, but he seems balanced to me. He should probably be using his lower half more, but he repeats his delivery well, which to me says he's in control of his body.

#37 Sam Morley

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 10:02 AM

It sounds to me like both Greene and McKay are better as hitters, McKay for sure if he's working sub 90. And with Greene, the projectability of a high school pitcher has to be about zero- even if you knew the outcome of Greene as a pitcher would be top of the rotation guy, if you also knew his outcome as hitter was slick fielding power hitting ss, you have to prefer the latter. Don't you have to compare the ceilings of these guys as pitchers and hitters, and then also consider their 'somewhere in the middles'? Obviously the floor is never reach the show at all. The calls to draft a pitcher based on organizational need seem misguided. As pitchers, the college guys are two years out at best, and Greene is four or five. The team will be significantly different in two years, and almost totally different in five. The way I see it, we have one sure thing: Miguel sano; we have two guys we hope will be sure things: buxton and berrios; we have the following guys we hope can be contributors and will be pleasantly surprised by anything approaching stardom: Kepler, Rosario, polanco, Vargas. Possibly gone in two years, for sure in four: dozier, mauer, Castro, Santana, Santiago, Hughes, the whole bullpen, the whole bench. My point is that you should always draft the best available player, especially when you are rebuilding (the player you think will be the best when he reaches the big leagues). If you think that in four years, Greene will be the next correa or lindor, you take that and forget about pitching. Polanco is playing great now, but is he firmly established for the next six years- no. Gordon is hitting for average at nooga, but hasn't demonstrated any other plus tools so far- it sounds like his ceiling is 'solid'- which would be great, but not something to bank on. If you think that in two years, McKay can replace mauer at first and put up kris Bryant ("best hitter in college baseball") numbers at first, I'd say that's also more valuable than whatever his ceiling as a pitcher is, greene's ceiling as a pitcher is, or wright's ceiling is. It seems to me that guys touted as 'best hitter in college baseball' especially in recent years are fairly reliable at transitioning their production to the big leagues.

All that being said, it does seem like the value of both Greene and McKay is possibly being inflated by their statuses as being both pitchers and hitters of quality. You have to figure out: is he a better pitcher than he is a hitter or the other way around, and whichever he is better at, that's what he is- no looking back. The idea that if he fails at one, he can try the other sounds like a recipe for a long drawn out minor league career (though I suppose in the case of McKay in particular, if he blows out his arm as a pitcher 1b seems like a more reasonable fallback). The idea that either of them can somehow do both is impossible, in my opinion.

My questions are: who is the best hitter right now in the draft and who has the highest ceiling as a hitter in the draft and who is the best pitcher right now in the draft (projecting ceiling for a pitcher seems pointless, esp when you're picking 1:1).

Seems to me like the talk is that the answers are: McKay is the best hitter right now (and might also have the highest ceiling) Greene has the highest ceiling as a hitter/position player (as a ss) and wright is the best pitcher.

I think McKay is the closest thing to a sure thing in the draft, but as a first baseman, and I would be happy if the twins took him (with dreams of kris Bryant in two years). I think Greene as a SS is the most interesting pick with the highest potential payoff and I would be happy if the twins took him, looking forward to watching his progress in the minors for the next four-six years. If they take wright or any of the other two as a pitcher, I will be gritting my teeth and crossing my fingers and hoping it somehow works out (thinking of kohl Stewart and Tyler jay).

#38 drjim

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 01:09 PM

I absolutely think their value is being inflated because they are so good at both pitching and hitting.

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#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 02:22 PM

 

I absolutely think their value is being inflated because they are so good at both pitching and hitting.

 

shouldn't it be? If they fail at pitching, they have a good shot at playing the field, apparently. That seems like it would be more valuable.

 

Or am I reading this wrongly?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#40 nicksaviking

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 02:25 PM

 

shouldn't it be? If they fail at pitching, they have a good shot at playing the field, apparently. That seems like it would be more valuable.

 

Or am I reading this wrongly?

 

If a team was willing to let them do both I'd find value.

 

If it's the old fashioned way where they do one for 6 years, struggle and then transition to the other then I'd think all the service time lost kills the value.

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