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About that farm system..

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#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:23 PM

As far the response that we have a lot of talent "below the line" of 100; that doesn't change anything. Almost every organization can say the same thing.

Except they can't, as evidenced by Sickels' preseason farm ranking of 15. Dead center in MLB.
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#22 drjim

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:24 PM

But on the bigger point, it was time for Ryan to go, but the franchise wasn't in dire condition. But it desperately needed an upgrade and some new ideas.
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#23 spycake

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:24 PM

 

The farm system is fine, and the majors are a tweak away....and people felt Ryan should be fired? Help me out here....

On that tangent, it's interesting to think that none of the recent roster/personnel moves would have been out of place with TR at the helm.  Castro, Gimenez, Adrianza, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Tepesch, Wilk, Duffey to the pen, etc.  Even dismissing Brunansky as hitting coach.

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#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:25 PM

 

I guess I won't speak for everyone but both of those points are absurd.

The system isn't "fine" it lacks impact talent. That seems pretty universally acknowledged. And especially in the context of drafting high for so many years.

On the major league roster, their pitching is still really bad. If they fill 4 holes it might be ok. But the lineup is close to legit.

 

Isn't that what the OP said, and isn't that what people are arguing against? I must be reading it wrong. Because, that's what he said, it isn't highly ranked, and lacks impact players. 

 

BTW, I agree on the MLB team, but that's not the tone of the site right now, and I'm not going to go into every thread and disagree, that's just not nice.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#25 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:26 PM

 

The Twins don't need an infusion of talent. They need to begin hole-filling. That can be done via trade or free agency.

 

You're conflating top 100 prospect lists with organizational strength. There are loads of prospects who help their MLB teams without touching a top prospect list. The Twins have lots of those guys, they just don't have the Byron Buxtons in the farm system anymore.

 

There's a reason why most farm system rankings have the Twins in the 15-20 range (ie. squarely in the middle of all MLB teams, if not a touch below). They have talent, it's simply not top 100 talent. If you want to see a truly barren farm system, look at the Angels or Tigers. They don't have talent of any kind. The Twins aren't in that category, not even close to it.

 

I agree with this... Here's a look at the current player with the Next In Line or within next years.

 

 

C - Castro (3 years) --> Murphy/Garver both at AAA, look like decent backups. 

1B - Mauer (2 years) ---> Vargas, Sano, Park... Diaz in three years... or Sano.

2B - Dozier (2 years) ---> Polanco, Gordon, Vielma

SS - Polanco (Long Time) ---> Gordon, Vielma .... Palacios, Javier

3B - Sano (Long Time) ---> see SS list, maybe Blankenhorn down the line.

OF- Rosario, Buxton, Kepler (Long Time) ---> Granite, Palka, Wade 

 

SP - Santana (2-3 years), Santiago (this year), Hughes (2-3-4 years), Gibson (looking like this year)... ---> Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Jorge, Stewart, Romero, Thorpe, L. Wells, etc.

 

RP - Lots of guys (Pressly, Duffey, Rogers could be here awhile) --> Hildenberger, Melotakis, Busenitz, Burdi, Reed, Curtiss, Jay (and any number of the starters, if there's not room, etc.)

 

So yeah, not a ton of Top 100 guys, but there is talent that will be able to surround Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios... who will be the core... And, hopefully a few more minor leaguers will take a big step the rest of this year. Gonsalves, Jay and Thorpe come back healthy and strong. Hopefully Romero and Jorge and Granite and Palka keep improving. 

 

I'd agree that the Twins farm system isn't strong and it's certainly not top-heavy, but I agree with Brock that there is talent to complement the (hopefully) stars... 

 

And, with Sean Johnson taking over for Deron Johnson, that can only be a positive. And, Falvey and Levine have been rather involved. So, we'll see what happens. Internationally, they've had seemingly good signings like Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Jorge, Diaz, Javier, and bad signings (maybe Minier)... And, it appears they'll sign Jelfry Marte this year. 

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#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:26 PM

On that tangent, it's interesting to think that none of the recent roster/personnel moves would have been out of place with TR at the helm. Castro, Gimenez, Adrianza, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Tepesch, Wilk, Duffey to the pen, etc. Even dismissing Brunansky as hitting coach.

I think it's a bit unfair to say Ryan would have acquired this catching corps for the reasons Falvey acquired them.

The others? Yeah, hard to see a lot of difference there but I think it's a mistake to assume the process is the same because the result is similar.
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#27 drjim

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:27 PM

On that tangent, it's interesting to think that none of the recent roster/personnel moves would have been out of place with TR at the helm. Castro, Gimenez, Adrianza, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Tepesch, Wilk, Duffey to the pen, etc. Even dismissing Brunansky as hitting coach.


Part of the reason is that every front office is going to be about 90% the same (in the context of their resources).
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#28 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:30 PM

 

I know Falvey and Levine are new, but frankly they really haven't done anything different in the 6+ months they've been in charge than the previous regime - at least not from a visible viewpoint.

 

We don't know that... they have (likely) set up new metrics, new ways of evaluating talent and put that to work, given players an opportunity while evaluating, and keeping tabs on what other minor league organizations have differently. Just because we haven't seen a ton of transactions doesn't mean things aren't completely different. 

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#29 drjim

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:30 PM

Isn't that what the OP said, and isn't that what people are arguing against? I must be reading it wrong. Because, that's what he said, it isn't highly ranked, and lacks impact players.

BTW, I agree on the MLB team, but that's not the tone of the site right now, and I'm not going to go into every thread and disagree, that's just not nice.


I guess I see people discussing with more nuance a blunt point made in the original post.
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#30 whydidnt

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:30 PM

I think it's a bit unfair to say Ryan would have acquired this catching corps for the reasons Falvey acquired them.
The others? Yeah, hard to see a lot of difference there but I think it's a mistake to assume the process is the same because the result is similar.


I agree the process is likely different, but if in the end the results are similar, what's the difference? I'm speaking in particular about the abject failure to address the pitching staff with anything other than bargain basemen old guys and rule V picks.

#31 drjim

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:32 PM

We don't know that... they have (likely) set up new metrics, new ways of evaluating talent and put that to work, given players an opportunity while evaluating, and keeping tabs on what other minor league organizations have differently. Just because we haven't seen a ton of transactions doesn't mean things aren't completely different.


Several new front office hires too. Lots of shifting under the radar.
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#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:32 PM

 

I guess I see people discussing with more nuance a blunt point made in the original post.

 

Fair. Not sure I completely agree, but fair. We can read the same thing, and see different messages....(something STNG taught us, and I learned in working in internal communications).

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#33 whydidnt

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:32 PM

We don't know that... they have (likely) set up new metrics, new ways of evaluating talent and put that to work, given players an opportunity while evaluating, and keeping tabs on what other minor league organizations have differently. Just because we haven't seen a ton of transactions doesn't mean things aren't completely different.


I agree these guys are probably doing things a lot differently. I just think they are being awfully slow about making significant changes, and keeping the scouting department mostly intact does not make sense in the context of recent performance.

#34 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:34 PM

 

On that tangent, it's interesting to think that none of the recent roster/personnel moves would have been out of place with TR at the helm.  Castro, Gimenez, Adrianza, Belisle, Breslow, Haley, Tepesch, Wilk, Duffey to the pen, etc.  Even dismissing Brunansky as hitting coach.

 

I think this speaks more to the fact that most (if not all) organizations sign and claim these types of players and make these types of moves. Check out all team's offseason organization transactions and find a team that doesn't find stopgaps or big parts with minor league signings... and probably 1/4 to 1/3 of teams keep their Rule 5 picks... And teams value defense behind the plate and around the diamond... and veteran leadership means something to all organizations.  

 

Sometimes is more of the means of evaluating which players to target might be slightly different, but the teams all sign players from a variety of places. 

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#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:35 PM

 

Saying the farm system is fine is not the same as saying it shouldn't be better than it is.

 

Also fair, but is that what people posted? If so, I apologize for missing that nuance. 

 

edit: and if it should be better, should we be happy most of the scouts are the same? That was actually the OP's point, I think. Should we trust the FO, if they are relying on mostly the same people, to improve the farm system?

 

And, as I said in my post, we don't have enough data since they've largely just signed old guys and not made a trade for prospects.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 12 May 2017 - 03:37 PM.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#36 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:38 PM

 

I agree these guys are probably doing things a lot differently. I just think they are being awfully slow about making significant changes, and keeping the scouting department mostly intact does not make sense in the context of recent performance.

At times, we need to step back and take a look at the scope of an organization as large as an MLB team and then couple that with the extremely limited talent pool available at any given moment.

 

The Twins have, what, 50 scouts? More? And how many qualified scouting directors are available in November? Never mind the not-scouts who work under the director.

 

And that's just the scouting department. Multiply those numbers through analytics, administration, coaching, etc.

 

When large organizations see turnover, it's rarely fast and furious. It happens over a period of time as talent (or lack thereof) is identified, promoted, demoted, fired, and hired.

 

I've worked in large organizations that saw management turnover. They didn't walk in and fire everyone on day one because the organization would literally stop functioning the moment that happened. You need to grandfather in the current staff, identify strengths and weaknesses, change philosophy, and then make adjustments. Firing everyone when you walk in the door sounds like a good plan but would lead not only to failure but catastrophic failure.

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#37 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:43 PM

edit: and if it should be better, should we be happy most of the scouts are the same?

One truncated offseason is not enough time to build a scouting department or even identify the problem areas.

I know you've worked in large organizations, Mike. Imagine someone coming in and firing an entire department. Nothing would work if that happened and the department would stop functioning because no one knows the password for the friggin' PDF that contains all the internal scouting reports.

Never mind that it's highly unlikely every scout in the Twins organization should be fired in the first place. If 40% of a department is badly run but that 40% has louder voices than the rest, you've just needlessly fired 60% of a good department and it's unlikely you'll replace that 60% with equally qualified candidates (as we all know, even many "good" hires end up failing). This is basic management stuff here.

As I've said many times in the past, if fans of baseball teams worked for companies that ran the way the fan wanted their sports franchise to operate, they'd scream bloody murder and cry management incompetence (which would be deserved, frankly).
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#38 spycake

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:47 PM

 

I think it's a bit unfair to say Ryan would have acquired this catching corps for the reasons Falvey acquired them.

The others? Yeah, hard to see a lot of difference there but I think it's a mistake to assume the process is the same because the result is similar.

Hard to say on the catching front.  Castro and Gimenez aren't strictly "hidden framing treasures" -- Castro was one of the top FA catchers on the market, and probably the best fit for the Twins for a number of reasons (health, durability, willingness to sign a reasonable deal with a losing ballclub).  And Ryan certainly would not have trusted Garver or Murphy for 2017 either, so he would have been looking for a veteran backup, and Gimenez probably fit just as well as any, given his history and cheap price.

 

I'm not necessarily saying the process is the same, but I do wonder if we didn't over-state (or over-expect?) their differences in many areas.  (And perhaps we're over-stating some of the catcher effects too? The Twins had a lot of bad luck in 2016, it was natural to expect some of that to neutralize.)

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#39 whydidnt

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:47 PM

I've worked in large organizations that saw management turnover. They didn't walk in and fire everyone on day one because the organization would literally stop functioning the moment that happened. You need to grandfather in the current staff, identify strengths and weaknesses, change philosophy, and then make adjustments. Firing everyone when you walk in the door sounds like a good plan but would lead not only to failure but catastrophic failure.

It's also quite rare to promote the two guys who were overseeing that complicated area that hasn't been doing too well. Sure, Scouting Directors don't grow on trees, but both Falvey and Levine have been in the FO of major league teams for several years. They get hired into positions of high responsibility and don't know anyone from 30 other organizations that they could bring in to help implement their plan? Every reorg I've ever been involved in typically didn't include promoting people just because they were there already.

I think we are letting the Twins orginization off the hook buy just saying it can't happen over night. Of course it can't, but that doesn't mean you don't start making clear decision based upon available facts as soon as possible.

My opinion is the Pohlads and St. Peter have way more control of the baseball side of things than anyone is willing to admit, and they have handcuffed the new leadership, which is why we haven't seen more significant change in areas that were in obvious need of improvement. Again, just my opinion from miles away.

Edited by whydidnt, 12 May 2017 - 03:48 PM.


#40 bluechipper

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 03:47 PM

8 out of the top 11 prospects on this list are international signings. This is the area the Twins need to get better at, as they haven't had much success since the Sano, Polanco, and Kepler group.

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