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About that farm system..

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#361 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 10:22 PM

I agree with Ash... A little less shade toward posters would be wonderful.

I don't know if I'm going to help or hurt the conversation but I'm not sure why Bird is being asked to work so hard to make what I consider to be a valid point.

Of course... there is skill but that skill is minimized considerably by a large number of factors.

Brian Dozier may have been a great 8th round pick. The scout who advocated his selection and sold him to the higher ups might even deserve a coupon to the Twins gift shop for that selection but we don't know if that same scout convinced them to take Brad Stillings in the 7th round and was more convincing than another scout of ours who was jumping on the table screaming... take Paul Goldschmidt. There are so many misses we just don't know but the fact that Brian Dozier was selected in the 8th round... his MLB Success would have to be considered a pleasant surprise because the odds were against him the second his name was announced. Kudo's to Brian for beating the odds.

After the draft... Multiple factors take over. Injury/Health is obviously major. Sensible Development of each player is probably a huge factor and the attitude intangible of the player has got to be large.

And lets not forget about opportunity. If Brian Dozier was drafted by the Yankees... Brian Dozier may have never seen the majors because of Robinson Cano.

Brian Dozier was lucky enough to be drafted into an organization where he was able to rise to first in line for a call up and lucky enough to be in an organization that had an open door at 2B after he failed to walk through the open door at SS.

I agree with Bird... There are way too many factors to simply add up WAR and declare winners.


I agree with most of what you say, but still disagree with your conclusion.
At the end of the day, we still judge results. It's what you do in sports.
You could just as easily say there are too many factors in a baseball game to simply add up the runs and declare a winner. Yet that is exactly what we do.

Front offices must think that some talent evaluators are better than others. If they didn't, it'd be a minimum wage job.
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#362 The Wise One

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 02:24 AM

 

I agree with Ash... A little less shade toward posters would be wonderful. 

 

I don't know if I'm going to help or hurt the conversation but I'm not sure why Bird is being asked to work so hard to make what I consider to be a valid point. 

 

Of course... there is skill but that skill is minimized considerably by a large number of factors.

 

Brian Dozier may have been a great 8th round pick. The scout who advocated his selection and sold him to the higher ups might even deserve a coupon to the Twins gift shop for that selection but we don't know if that same scout convinced them to take Brad Stillings in the 7th round and was more convincing than another scout of ours who was jumping on the table screaming... take Paul Goldschmidt. There are so many misses we just don't know but the fact that Brian Dozier was selected in the 8th round... his MLB Success would have to be considered a pleasant surprise because the odds were against him the second his name was announced. Kudo's to Brian for beating the odds. 

 

After the draft... Multiple factors take over. Injury/Health is obviously major. Sensible Development of each player is probably a huge factor and the attitude intangible of the player has got to be large. 

 

And lets not forget about opportunity. If Brian Dozier was drafted by the Yankees... Brian Dozier may have never seen the majors because of Robinson Cano. 

 

Brian Dozier was lucky enough to be drafted into an organization where he was able to rise to first in line for a call up and lucky enough to be in an organization that had an open door at 2B after he failed to walk through the open door at SS. 

 

I agree with Bird... There are way too many factors to simply add up WAR and declare winners. 

But Bird was adding up WAR and calling winners. Cardinals with 88 WAR out of 12 players. What was a winner was also IMO a very low threshold. 12 out of 370 players in drafting means greatness.


#363 The Wise One

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 02:38 AM

 

Back to the examples: Boston hit on Youkilis with the 243rd pick. Meaning they passed on him 8 times and instead took prospects that sucked. And they took the risk, 193 times if you believe whydidn't's hypothetical, that all 29 other teams were too stupid to project him as any better than worthy of the 244th pick. Why did Boston do that? whydidnt was arguing that it was smart and intentional and an indication of skill. 

 

Boston missed on Matt Carpenter and Brian Dozier. All three teams passed on both of them many times over and instead took a bunch of prospects that sucked. The Cards and Twins were smart enough to know that Boston and 28 other teams would be stupid enough to pass on Carpenter and Dozier many times over.

 

Boston, St. Louis, and the Twins are all good at drafting. Personally, I think Boston and the Cards have both likely been just a tad better at talent evaluation than the Twins, but I can't prove it.  All three teams have been really smart and really stupid. Fans often want to point to their team's misses and the other teams' hits to justify their opinion that their own team's "mistakes" are blameworthy. 

 

The reason I reject simplistic conclusions about good and bad drafting based on adding up a bunch of WAR generated by players like those mentioned?  Two reasons. One, you guys haven't explained to me how teams can somehow be such geniuses and so stupid one round of the draft to the next, and how teams are so dang good at calculating the brainpower of the scouts on the other 29 teams and therefore know they're all going to stupidly pass on Brian Dozier 251 times or whatever it is.

 

As I pointed out, the Cards have generated 82 WAR from players taken in the 4th round and later from 2001-2010. The Twins have gotten 41.6 WAR. Personally, my bet is this difference is much more because of better player development than better talent evaluation. I can't prove it. I might be wrong.

 

But all of the inconsistencies I just described here, all this genius and stupidity exhibited by the same people? You guys want me to add up a bunch of WAR, or accept a list of random genius selections as evidence of good scouting? Trout's selection makes LAA geniuses, and yet they have two B- prospects or better in their system compared to the Twins' 14? 

 

For years, I've been saying they're all good at evaluating talent, and they all hit on some and miss on others. And yes, luck is involved. Lots of luck. It's the draft.

 

If you want to make a case that the Twins are lousy at the draft that I will accept, you're going to have to do better with the presentation of the evidence. And please don't point to the W-L record, or even to a list of their starting pitchers, and then tell me they don't know talent when they see it. I now view those "arguments" as obtuse rants. Those same evaluators passed muster on Ervin Santana and Brian Kintzler and Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero and Lewis Thorpe and Taylor Rogers and...

 

And please, please, NEVER use the word "excuses" when you refer to a counter argument someone makes, Mr. whydidnt. It's disrespectful, okay? Thank you.

1998-2007, a 10 year window,  the best Twins 13 drafted after the third round provided over 105 WAR. Yup the Twins can draft. What is the problem then. Signing. In a cap free time about 50 of that WAR actually signed with the Twins. The rest did not. Had they actually signed the players they would have had some better fringe playersI am not going to see if it is similar to other teams in random 10 years. . I would guess that it likely is. All you need to do is look at the 2000 Angels draft. 3 players 58 bWAR


#364 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 05:44 AM

I agree with most of what you say, but still disagree with your conclusion.
At the end of the day, we still judge results. It's what you do in sports.
You could just as easily say there are too many factors in a baseball game to simply add up the runs and declare a winner. Yet that is exactly what we do.
Front offices must think that some talent evaluators are better than others. If they didn't, it'd be a minimum wage job.


I think it is a minimum wage job.:);):) 

I agree with you. I'm hoping that Falvey is reading through every report ever filed. I'd like to see if the upgraded analytics department can track metrics on scouts or anyone involved in player decisions, maybe try put together an algorithm and fine tune it until it means something. I'd like Falvey to discover who the salesmen are and who shouts the others down to determine level of influence. Id like to see the scouting department budget increased. I'd like the Twins to offer more money to the best scouts and I think front office personnel should be vulnerable right now.

Yet I still don't think you can attach WAR to that Algorithm because of all those factors.

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#365 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 06:12 AM

 

But Bird was adding up WAR and calling winners. Cardinals with 88 WAR out of 12 players. What was a winner was also IMO a very low threshold. 12 out of 370 players in drafting means greatness.

 

Misunderstandings are usually the heart of all social conflicts. 

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#366 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 07:12 AM

I think it is a minimum wage job. :) ;) :)

I agree with you. I'm hoping that Falvey is reading through every report ever filed. I'd like to see if the upgraded analytics department can track metrics on scouts or anyone involved in player decisions, maybe try put together an algorithm and fine tune it until it means something. I'd like Falvey to discover who the salesmen are and who shouts the others down to determine level of influence. Id like to see the scouting department budget increased. I'd like the Twins to offer more money to the best scouts and I think front office personnel should be vulnerable right now.

Yet I still don't think you can attach WAR to that Algorithm because of all those factors.


Fair. The FO shouldn't necessarily use only results in their evaluations. They have much more info than we'll ever have.
We don't have the info that they have, so I think it's totally fair for fans to judge them based on their results - since that is all we have to go by.
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#367 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 07:17 AM

 

Fair. The FO shouldn't necessarily use only results in their evaluations. They have much more info than we'll ever have.
We don't have the info that they have, so I think it's totally fair for fans to judge them based on their results - since that is all we have to go by.

 

It's what we do.

 

 

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#368 birdwatcher

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 07:37 AM

Man, that was hard work.:)

 

One last comment. I apologize in advance.

 

IF I had posited that the ONLY variable that impacts a prospect's results was, say, coaching, several of my pals on here would have strongly opposed that argument and one of them would have tried to hurt my feelers.

 

But instead, I argued that we put too much emphasis on the whole messy selection process itself and give too little consideration to other factors that contribute to success.

 

If I hurt anyone's feelers during the course of the discussion, I assure you it was unintentional, but I recognize I can be grating to some, so I apologize if you were offended by my words.

 

Peace.

Edited by birdwatcher, 21 May 2017 - 07:38 AM.

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#369 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 07:49 AM

This thread is... bewildering.

 

Bird's point doesn't seem the least bit unreasonable. The draft is something of a crapshoot but if a team is 4% better at identifying possible performers throughout the draft, that's going to reap dividends over the long run.

 

But that means it's entirely possible they still fail the other 96% of the time because the draft is pretty close to a crapshoot in the later rounds.

 

Think of it in terms of blackjack. Each numerically higher up card from the dealer only changes the percentage of winning/losing by a couple of points. But if one player plays smart and hits every time the probability is 51% and stays every time the probability is 49%, that player is going to win more money over the long term than a player who does the opposite.


#370 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 08:08 AM

 

This thread is... bewildering.

 

Bird's point doesn't seem the least bit unreasonable. The draft is something of a crapshoot but if a team is 4% better at identifying possible performers throughout the draft, that's going to reap dividends over the long run.

 

But that means it's entirely possible they still fail the other 96% of the time because the draft is pretty close to a crapshoot in the later rounds.

 

Think of it in terms of blackjack. Each numerically higher up card from the dealer only changes the percentage of winning/losing by a couple of points. But if one player plays smart and hits every time the probability is 51% and stays every time the probability is 49%, that player is going to win more money over the long term than a player who does the opposite.

 

The blackjack analogy is crystal clear and I agree but to bewilder things further. 

 

This isn't JUST pulling a card from the deck and increasing your luck odds to pay out over time.

 

This is about drafting an 8 when you have 13 and making sure the card STAYS an 8 by the time you need it. 

 

Things are always turning them into face cards. 

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#371 Oxtung

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 09:27 AM

Up until a few posts ago bird seemed to be claiming there was no skill in drafting past the first round. That is what I was objecting too.

I believe we as fans can not separate talent acquisition from talent development. We just don't have the necessary information. However I do think it is abundantly clear that the talent that has made it to the Twins over the last decade or so has been subpar. That gets amplified further because of the FO choices regarding other areas of acquiring talent.

That said there is absolutely skill in drafting and a decade seems long enough for the new regime to determine which personnel should stay and which should go.
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#372 birdwatcher

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 01:54 PM

 

Up until a few posts ago bird seemed to be claiming there was no skill in drafting past the first round. That is what I was objecting too.

I believe we as fans can not separate talent acquisition from talent development. We just don't have the necessary information. However I do think it is abundantly clear that the talent that has made it to the Twins over the last decade or so has been subpar. That gets amplified further because of the FO choices regarding other areas of acquiring talent.

That said there is absolutely skill in drafting and a decade seems long enough for the new regime to determine which personnel should stay and which should go.

 

Sorry I was unclear.