I agree with Ash... A little less shade toward posters would be wonderful.
I don't know if I'm going to help or hurt the conversation but I'm not sure why Bird is being asked to work so hard to make what I consider to be a valid point.
Of course... there is skill but that skill is minimized considerably by a large number of factors.
Brian Dozier may have been a great 8th round pick. The scout who advocated his selection and sold him to the higher ups might even deserve a coupon to the Twins gift shop for that selection but we don't know if that same scout convinced them to take Brad Stillings in the 7th round and was more convincing than another scout of ours who was jumping on the table screaming... take Paul Goldschmidt. There are so many misses we just don't know but the fact that Brian Dozier was selected in the 8th round... his MLB Success would have to be considered a pleasant surprise because the odds were against him the second his name was announced. Kudo's to Brian for beating the odds.
After the draft... Multiple factors take over. Injury/Health is obviously major. Sensible Development of each player is probably a huge factor and the attitude intangible of the player has got to be large.
And lets not forget about opportunity. If Brian Dozier was drafted by the Yankees... Brian Dozier may have never seen the majors because of Robinson Cano.
Brian Dozier was lucky enough to be drafted into an organization where he was able to rise to first in line for a call up and lucky enough to be in an organization that had an open door at 2B after he failed to walk through the open door at SS.
I agree with Bird... There are way too many factors to simply add up WAR and declare winners.
I agree with most of what you say, but still disagree with your conclusion.
At the end of the day, we still judge results. It's what you do in sports.
You could just as easily say there are too many factors in a baseball game to simply add up the runs and declare a winner. Yet that is exactly what we do.
Front offices must think that some talent evaluators are better than others. If they didn't, it'd be a minimum wage job.