I'm on a phone and won't elaborate greatly but his statcast numbers of hard hit balls are very similar to last years numbers. That suggests his BABIP will be similar barring luck.
His average exit velocity may be similar to last year, but there are other key differences.
He's hitting far fewer ground balls (42.7% v 51.9%)
He's hitting opposite field again. Last year his pull% was 30.8% and his oppo% was 35.2%. This year it's 22.2% and 42.5% respectively.
His average exit velocity might be the same, but that's an average. Last year he hit more soft and more medium contact but less hard contact. I can see how that would about average out, but the results are very different.
year soft% med% hard%
2016 13.4% 55.3% 31.3%
2017 11.8% 51.6% 36.6%
So he's traded some weak and medium contact for harder contact, and he's hitting opposite field more than he's ever done in his career.