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BA: Ranking Youngest Farm Systems

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:27 AM

http://www.baseballa...PmXTCuQ81sDD.97

 

If will surely come as no surprise to see that the Twins are 27th in terms of youngest farm systems. IT's been something that has followed the organization for years... But, does it matter?

 

 

Here's how I look at it. You've got your future stars (potentially) and those guys tend to move up a little faster, get pushed. The other guys may or may not get to the big leagues. Generally if they do, it'll be a role, so I don' really care if they come up at 26, 27, 28, 31. Whatever...

 

Here is a look at why I don't really worry much about these rankings:

 

AAA - 27.6 average - 

Berrios 23, Slegers 24, Palka 25

 

AA - 25.2 average - 

Gordon 21, Stewart and Romero 22, Jorge, Roseario, Vielma, Wade 23

 

High-A - 24.0 average - 

Arraez and Lachlan Wells are 20. Sean Miller, Nelson Molina, Brian Navarreto, Rafael Valera are 22.

 

Low-A - 22.4 average - 

Ben Rortvedt - 19

Travis Blankenhorn, Lewin Diaz, Jermaine Palacios and Aaron Whitefield are 20. 

This one I don't think I care about at all... If guys were drafted last year after 3 years of college, they're already 22 (which makes sense for that to be the average player there). There are some four year guys drafted lower who are there as well. 

 

So, feel free to discuss. I think that Age to Level of competition matters in prospect rankings, but it doesn't bother me too much at all in an overall perspective. Consider AAA where Quinton Berry is 32. Matt Hague is 31. There are a couple of 30 year olds. Just doesn't bother me. 

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#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:51 AM

Yeah, this seems kind of pointless. If the Twins feel it's smart to backfill their MiLB rosters with 32 year old mentor types, that's not necessarily a bad strategy (though, given the Twins recent prospect performance, I'd call that strategy into question because it doesn't appear to work).

 

I'd like to see them go a bit more granular with these numbers:

 

1. Rank the organization's top 50 prospects. Who has the youngest prospects?

2. Choose the best dozen or so guys from each MiLB team roster. Who has the youngest prospects?

3. Use median age, not average age.

 

Any of those solutions would be better than what we see here.

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#3 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:53 AM

Given how terrible they have been at building talent the last 5 - 7 years (as in, they stink), I think questioning everything they do makes sense.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#4 gunnarthor

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:58 AM

I think the Twins have tended to draft young - last year we drafted five 17 year olds, IIRC.  So, yeah, I'm not really seeing avg age of the system as meaning anything.  

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#5 Thrylos

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:16 AM

Other than AAA which these says is somewhat of a mixed back of the MLB-ready-most talent of the organization that is either prospects or AAAA players, age is an important indicator:It signifies a. how fast an organization develops players and they move to higher competition levels,b. how many chances an organization gives players who will never make it to the majors, and c. how many levels is an organization willing to clog with reclamation projects.

 

The Twins have been not exceptional in either of those things. Playing a 30-year old, a 29-year old, two 28 year olds, and three 27 year olds in AA, does not help player development in the Twins organization.Having a 25 year old with a .442 OPS as the cleanup hitter in high A (but you know who his daddy is,) and a 27 year old in that rotation, does not help player development in the Twins organization.

 

This feels as an evaluation year for Falvey and Levine and I hope that these practices are some that they are evaluating and are willing to make quick decisions...

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#6 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 07:30 PM

 

Given how terrible they have been at building talent the last 5 - 7 years (as in, they stink), I think questioning everything they do makes sense.

 

I'm the one who linked to the article, so it's my fault... but I have no problem with questioning everything and I'm very certain that is exactly what Derek Falvey is doing. I'm sure he's watching and observing everything. I just don't think that this report is meaningful. I think that Brock's ideas for what might be a little more meaningful.

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#7 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 07:37 PM

It's also hard for me to get too worked up about minor league ages when the big league roster has so many guys under 25.... 

 

Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco. 

 

I don't mind taking a shot on indy guys that are older. They've had some success getting guys to the big leagues and having some success.

 

I just personally don't see anyone in the minor league system that is being blocked and is at a level below where they probably should be. And if or when someone pushes their way to the next level, they'll make changes. As always. 

 

And again, when you consider the list of players that are 2+ years younger than the league average, I'm not too worried about anything. Geez they pushed LaMonte Wade to AA this year after playing like 25 games in High A. 

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#8 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:36 PM

I can think of at least two guys that are at a level lower than where they should be. Mason Melotakis and Engelb Vielma should have started 2017 in AAA. Melotakis is 25. He was in AA all of last year after missing 2015. He also had pitched in AA in 2014. He's more than proven he can get AA hitters out. It's time for the next step.

Vielma will be only be 23 in a couple months, so his being in AA isn't as eggregious. He had his best year at the plate of his pro career last year in AA. Besides, it's his glove that will get him to the MLB level. Everybody knows that. As the only infielder on the 40 man roster who isn't on the 25 man roster, he's going to be the guy called up if someone gets hurt. So, wouldn't it make sense for him to see better pitching at AAA?
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#9 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:28 PM

I'm the one who linked to the article, so it's my fault... but I have no problem with questioning everything and I'm very certain that is exactly what Derek Falvey is doing. I'm sure he's watching and observing everything. I just don't think that this report is meaningful. I think that Brock's ideas for what might be a little more meaningful.


Fair. I don't have any idea if it meaningful. But I have previously questioned some of the older players in AA.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#10 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:58 PM

 

I can think of at least two guys that are at a level lower than where they should be. Mason Melotakis and Engelb Vielma should have started 2017 in AAA. Melotakis is 25. He was in AA all of last year after missing 2015. He also had pitched in AA in 2014. He's more than proven he can get AA hitters out. It's time for the next step.

Vielma will be only be 23 in a couple months, so his being in AA isn't as eggregious. He had his best year at the plate of his pro career last year in AA. Besides, it's his glove that will get him to the MLB level. Everybody knows that. As the only infielder on the 40 man roster who isn't on the 25 man roster, he's going to be the guy called up if someone gets hurt. So, wouldn't it make sense for him to see better pitching at AAA?

 

I wouldn't necessarily say that AAA has better pitching than AA. The prospects are in AA. The veterans and AAAA types are in AAA. They can face the talent in AA, and then face those crafty veterans in AAA. Both are valuable. 

 

Regarding Melotakis, he missed like 3-4 weeks of spring training, he he's just getting going really. Also, I'm sure they didn't want to sent him up north to Rochester if they didn't have to. He'll get to AAA soon, but they're going to take care of his arm.

 

Vielma... I guess he could be at AAA, and if he keeps hitting, he likely will be fairly soon. I never have a problem with a guy who doesn't dominate a level getting a little more time there. He should have improved and hopefully that'll show up in the numbers. 

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#11 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 07:29 AM

I don't think age should be that much of a factor in determining a level personally.If they have things to work on, put them in that appropriate level.If they don't, promote them to the next one. 

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#12 drjim

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 07:51 AM

I personally think cumulative agr is a pretty meaningless metric for farm systems. Teams fill around prospects with a variety of strategies.

What matters in my mind is how supported the core prospects are, are they getting reps at the right level, are they developing.

The bigger issue is the total talent level in the minors. It can go hand in hand with age, but certainly doesn't need to.
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#13 yarnivek1972

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 12:41 PM

As I said, Vielma is the Twins call up if an infielder gets hurt (other than first of course). Facing guys who have been around is exactly what he needs to be doing. He's already hitting far better than anyone expects him to.

If Melotakis is eventually going to pitch for the Twins he is going to have to pitch in cold weather in April. He probably should get used to it.

#14 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:01 PM

 

As I said, Vielma is the Twins call up if an infielder gets hurt (other than first of course). Facing guys who have been around is exactly what he needs to be doing. He's already hitting far better than anyone expects him to.

If Melotakis is eventually going to pitch for the Twins he is going to have to pitch in cold weather in April. He probably should get used to it.

I agree that Vielma is off to a surprisingly good start. Never thought I'd see him hitting over .300 once he was into his 4th game of the season. Looking good.

The problem there is you have Reginatto and Field raking in AAA right now, with Niko Goodrum trying to get playing time because his bat has long been suspected of being MLB capable someday. 

 

Oddly enough I believe that there is a bit of a roster crunch at 3B/MI in AAA.

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#15 yarnivek1972

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:45 PM

 

I agree that Vielma is off to a surprisingly good start. Never thought I'd see him hitting over .300 once he was into his 4th game of the season. Looking good.

The problem there is you have Reginatto and Field raking in AAA right now, with Niko Goodrum trying to get playing time because his bat has long been suspected of being MLB capable someday. 

 

Oddly enough I believe that there is a bit of a roster crunch at 3B/MI in AAA.

Then you release someone.  The Twins are keeping Vielma in AA so Tommy Field, Leonardo Reginatto, Niko Goodrum and Bengie Gonzalez can play?  Really?  No one is saying Vielma is a budding superstar.  But everyone thinks he has a MLB glove RIGHT NOW.  He probably won't ever be more than a utility infielder.  You know what? That's a position every team needs.