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Article: Duffey Presents Pleasant Dilemma For Twins

tyler duffey
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#41 KirbyDome89

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 10:32 AM

Its a tough call. The Twins could desperately use another effective starter and if Duffey has the potential to fill that role then you want to make sure he is given every opportunity to prove he can't. If I'm choosing between Berrios and Duffey to replace Gibson I'm going with Berrios though.

 

I agree with the Trevor May comparisons. I doubt the Twins would force Duffey to continue starting in the same way they've kept May relegated to the bullpen but if he does have a good thing going I'm ok with him staying in the pen when there are better options to fill the vacant starter role.  

 

I think the real dilemma is if/when Hughes gets bumped. At that point it should be Duffey stepping into the rotation. 


#42 mrkarbo

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 11:41 AM

Leave him in pen and start working him into a more prominent role in later innings

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#43 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 11:54 AM

I agree with Froemming. Let's also not forget that it looks like we will need 2 starters this year given that Hughes and Gibson both look bad, and that's assuming Mejia works out. The AAA team has 1 starter ready to move up (Berrios) but it's hard to see a second one in there right now. Hurlbut maybe?  Slegers? Gonsalves is hurt and still at AA.  I  think the Dodgers have the right philosophy on starting pitching. Quit looking for 5 guys to go 200 innings each and look for 8-9 guys who can start, hope for one or 2 of them to give you 200 innings and hope the rest can give you 10-15 decent quality starts. 

 

I think that means guys like Duffy (and maybe Haley or even Tepesch) need to be swingmen giving the team quality bullpen innings and starting part of the year. It's not an easy job but it's an important one. Duffy will be back in the rotation at some point. Frankly, I think now would be a good time so we can send Gibson down to AAA to find himself (if there's anything more to find) and Hughes can go to the BP or DL.  

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#44 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:04 PM

It's a waste to use Duffey in the role of mop up man. 

 

That's what Haley, Tonkin, Breslow should be doing, maybe even Hughes.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#45 Dr. Evil

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:33 PM

You cant only build your pen out of failed starters and retreads. You have to throw some assets directly at the pen from your system and actively try to build it up just as you do your starting rotation.  

 

As for his pitch mix, to me it profiles more as a reliever. Mariano Rivera became a legend basically using slight variations of 1 pitch. Duffey's hook is nasty when served in small quantities.

 

Keep him in the pen.

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#46 John Bonnes

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:38 PM

I'd lean toward putting him back into a starting role as soon as possible. It's far too early to be giving up on him as a starter. His performance last year was ... odd. A 1000+ OPS against right-handed hitters? 

 

If, by next year, it looks like starting pitching isn't working out, then bullpen. This year, he still has options, so the Twins can let him get back up to speed in AAA. You move a guy to the bullpen when you must, either for his sake or for the organization's, and not before. 

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#47 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:57 PM

As a general rule, I think you should exhaust your options to leave a guy in the rotation before you move him to the pen.  I'm not sure we've exhausted our options yet with Duffey.  

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#48 Dr. Evil

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 01:38 PM

I understand and respect your opinions. I would personally handle it differently.
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#49 chpettit19

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 05:17 PM

To me Duffey just doesn't have the stuff to go through a lineup multiple times. I know he was good his rookie year, but that's his first time through the league with nobody knowing anything about him. I think people got the scouting report on him last year, and as someone said earlier, they knew to sit on fastballs in the zone and let it fly.

 

You don't need big velocity to be succesful, but if you don't have it you better have big time command. Duffey just doesn't seem to have that type of command on his fastball. He can get away with low velocity and not great command once through the order and maybe even twice. But the longer you leave him out there in an outing the higher the chance that he leaves 89 down the middle and it goes 450. Someone mentioned his HR/FB% numbers and that it was unsustainably high last year. It may be unsustainable to stay at 19.5%, but I'd expect to see him at the top of the league in that percentage every year as a starter. When big league hitters can eliminate all but one of your pitches they get really, really good. And when that 1 pitch is an 88-92 straight fastball that you don't command very well they get even better. I know Mariano only had 1 pitch, but he had pin point command with it on both sides of the plate and up and down. And it was a filthy pitch.

 

All that being said I just think his repetoire lends itself to having more success in the pen than in the rotation. I'm of the belief that if you can get 3 outs you should be able to go through the lineup once and get 7 or 8 outs. I'd like to see Duffey (and almost every reliever) used in that way. Not just in games the starter didn't get through 7 in, but whenever he's needed. Go out there and go through the lineup once and hit the showers. Andrew Miller in the playoffs style. I think you could have 2 or 3 guys that do that for a full season and throw 100-110 innings and really make up some ground for a less than stellar rotation.

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#50 kab21

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 07:52 PM

 

As a general rule, I think you should exhaust your options to leave a guy in the rotation before you move him to the pen.  I'm not sure we've exhausted our options yet with Duffey.  

I would normally agree but I believe the many people that his pitches don't project well as a starter. If this is true (certainly debatable) then just leave him in the bullpen. I do like the idea of having higher leverage multiple inning pitchers available though instead of this one (inning) and done concept. No reason that Duffey couldn't be a 7th/8th (and even 9th) inning guy but it would challenge bullpen usage as we know it.

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Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#51 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:48 PM

 

I would normally agree but I believe the many people that his pitches don't project well as a starter. If this is true (certainly debatable) then just leave him in the bullpen. I do like the idea of having higher leverage multiple inning pitchers available though instead of this one (inning) and done concept. No reason that Duffey couldn't be a 7th/8th (and even 9th) inning guy but it would challenge bullpen usage as we know it.

 

That's a fair point, I guess it comes down to how effective that changeup can be.  

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#52 yarnivek1972

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 03:26 PM

I guess you could say it became unpleasant rapidly.


#53 Doomtints

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 03:57 PM

 

I guess you could say it became unpleasant rapidly.

 

We'll never learn to stop overreacting to small sample sizes.

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#54 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 06:29 AM

 

I would normally agree but I believe the many people that his pitches don't project well as a starter. If this is true (certainly debatable) then just leave him in the bullpen. I do like the idea of having higher leverage multiple inning pitchers available though instead of this one (inning) and done concept. No reason that Duffey couldn't be a 7th/8th (and even 9th) inning guy but it would challenge bullpen usage as we know it.

 

The problem I see is that the two pitch thing gets a bit overblown.He throws two different curve balls if I remember right... now I get it, but mixing pitches and locating that FB is a big deal. A change up that can keep hitters off balance would be nice, but let's not forget just how good he was in 2015. 

 

If the two pitch thing is a real problem that cannot be overcome, he would have failed miserably in 2015.He didn't. 

 

I'm not saying that the pen isn't his final destination, but I think you give him some rope to see what he can do.That's just me.

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#55 Doomtints

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:15 AM

 

The problem I see is that the two pitch thing gets a bit overblown.He throws two different curve balls if I remember right... now I get it, but mixing pitches and locating that FB is a big deal. A change up that can keep hitters off balance would be nice, but let's not forget just how good he was in 2015. 

 

If the two pitch thing is a real problem that cannot be overcome, he would have failed miserably in 2015.He didn't. 

 

I'm not saying that the pen isn't his final destination, but I think you give him some rope to see what he can do.That's just me.

 

In 2015 he was pitching after the roster expansion, no? So against a mix of AAA and major league players?

One would expect a 2-pitch guy to be decent ~2 times through the batting order.  If I recall correctly, this was the case last year. With a small repertoire, one has to put more strength into each pitch. One isn't going to last as long through the game.

I think the smartest move is when you find a reliever who can swoop in with his superman cape and shut down the opposition, you keep him in the pen.  Esp. on a team with such a shaky bullpen.

Edited by Doomtints, 21 April 2017 - 08:18 AM.

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#56 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:20 AM

 

In 2015 he was pitching after the roster expansion, no? So against a mix of AAA and major league players?

One would expect a 2-pitch guy to be decent ~2 times through the batting order.  If I recall correctly, this was the case last year. With a small repertoire, one has to put more strength into each pitch. One isn't going to last as long through the game.

Duffey had four starts pre-expansion in 2015. His performance was somewhere between holding his own and a little bit bad.

 

But that doesn't really matter to me (pre- or post-expansion). What matters to me is putting too much weight in a pitcher entering MLB and having a dozen or so good starts. Hitters haven't seen that pitcher. Film hasn't been collected on the guy. No notebooks are collated with his pitching tendencies. He's the baseball version of the technology industry's "security through obscurity" rule.

 

Maybe that guy is succeeding because he's good. Maybe that guy is succeeding because no one is ready for him. Either way, I'm not going to draw a conclusion when the reason for his success is muddy.

 

To anyone who wants to point to Duffey's 2015 success as proof of anything, I will simply reply "Scott Diamond".

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#57 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:25 AM

I've thought about this a lot the last couple days, waffling back and forth. Lots of good arguments made on this thread, both ways. I'm sticking to my earlier post.

 

If I ran the Twins*, I'd keep him in the bullpen. I'd use him in the way that fireman used to be used to be used. I'd use him in the 6-8th innings, 1-2 innings at a time, in games where it was a close score. I'd want to get 100ish innings out of him. Getting 2/3 as many innings as most starters, but mostly in high leverage situations, would make him about as valuable as a good starter.

 

Actually, I've been arguing teams should do this more and more, where pitchers pitch 2-3 innings max, and you plan to use 3-5 pitchers every game. Most teams don't have 4 good starters, let alone 8. They would greatly benefit by having guys that can pitch 2-3 innings at a time to go with their 3 good starters. But, that's serious outside the box thinking...

 

*forgot to add this! It's good for everyone I don't. IIRTT.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 21 April 2017 - 08:32 AM.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#58 Vanimal46

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:30 AM

 

I've thought about this a lot the last couple days, waffling back and forth. Lots of good arguments made on this thread, both ways. I'm sticking to my earlier post.

 

If I ran the Twins*, I'd keep him in the bullpen. I'd use him in the way that fireman used to be used to be used. I'd use him in the 6-8th innings, 1-2 innings at a time, in games where it was a close score. I'd want to get 100ish innings out of him. Getting 2/3 as many innings as most starters, but mostly in high leverage situations, would make him about as valuable as a good starter.

 

Concur. I'm also of the belief that 90-100 high leverage innings is just as valuable as 160-180 innings as a #5 pitcher. Considering the team doesn't have a ton of talent in the rotation, I'd like to keep the bullpen strong, and utilize the Royals bullpen strategy this season.... Where we hope for 5-6 decent innings from the #4/#5 starter, and let the bullpen take over from there.  

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#59 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:36 AM

 

 

 

To anyone who wants to point to Duffey's 2015 success as proof of anything, I will simply reply "Scott Diamond".

 

2015, in my opinion, is simply proof that we shouldn't write him off as a starter... just yet.2016 had injury issues, not to mention he lost his ability to locate his FB.That would have been a problem for him in the pen too.So far this year, his FB issues seem to be resolved.

 

As I've said before, I'm not against it if his final destination is the pen, but I think it would be very unwise to close the book on him starting at this point.It's not like we have a rotation of Cy Young candidates forcing him to the pen.

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#60 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:41 AM

 

2015, in my opinion, is simply proof that we shouldn't write him off as a starter... just yet.2016 had injury issues, not to mention he lost his ability to locate his FB.That would have been a problem for him in the pen too.So far this year, his FB issues seem to be resolved.

 

As I've said before, I'm not against it if his final destination is the pen, but I think it would be very unwise to close the book on him starting at this point.It's not like we have a rotation of Cy Young candidates forcing him to the pen.

And that's fair. I have no problems with people saying Duffey should get another shot at starting, as the situation is pretty murky.

 

But 2015 didn't prove anything to us one way or the other. Nor did 2016, for that matter.

 

Personally, I'd keep him in the pen right now because this team can't even seem to get Jose Berrios in their rotation. I'm not willing to punt on Berrios in favor of Duffey, who *should* be a solid bullpen arm given his profile.

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