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Article: Duffey Presents Pleasant Dilemma For Twins

tyler duffey
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#21 Dantes929

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:14 AM

They were shaking their heads at his curve ball in 2015 because it was a better curve ball in bite, variety and plane than in 2016.  It was more effective because his command of his fastball was so much better in 2015 than he was in 2016, IMO.  The results were that he pitched like Blyleven in 2015 and not in 2016. If he had the same command and quality of pitches this year as he had last year he would not be succeeding in the pen either Comparisons with May are not apt because May has had back issues that came into play.  There are pitchers in the past that have switched roles effectively but I don't care to see Duffey flip flopping either.  I like the idea of a high leverage two or three inning guy. I wish there were more of those.

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#22 howieramone2

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:19 AM

On Inside Twins, they said the move to the pen is not permanent. He is still working on a change up.  On another note, at this point in time Gonsalves only has 2 dependable pitches.

Read my lips. Santana has shown absolutely no signs of decline.


#23 markos

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:21 AM

Frankly, I don't think there is enough evidence to say that he is any different from the guy from last year. Maybe he should be put into a higher-leverage role. But he is succeeding right now because he hasn't given up a home run yet and has a .208 BABIP against. Both of those things are going to change. He has only faced 33 batters. His K% and BB% are "better", but we are only talking about a difference of 1 SO and 1 BB from what his rates from last year would predict. He isn't getting significantly more swinging strikes than last year, and his swinging strike rate of 10% would barely put him in the top-100 relievers from last year. His velocity is only up a little bit, and he has never been a high velocity guy. Even in college he was 88-92 out of the bullpen. There aren't many elite relievers that average <93 MPH. I think it is just too early to conclude anything about Duffey right now. Let's see how he is doing around Memorial Day.

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#24 Steve Lein

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:25 AM

Is and always has been a reliever for me. Let him start climbing the pecking order in the bullpen, or you know, do it already...

 

This is Glen Perkins all over again. Don't overthink it.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#25 Doomtints

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:29 AM

When you put a player in the right position for him good things happen. Who woulda thought?

 

 

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#26 Tom Froemming

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:32 AM

Looks like I'm in the minority, but I'm of the mind that you keep a player in the spot where he could provide the most value until you're convinced he will be unusable in that role. Maybe Duffey as a starter was a lost cause, but if we're gonna give Kyle Gibson 101 starts, I would've been fine giving Duffey more than 36.

 

Yes, he was bad last year, but maybe with the new evaluation team and Castro/Gimenez able to help we would have seen something extra from Tyler. That's a great tidbit about his change in positioning on he rubber, you never know how little stuff like that can make big differences.

 

I would have put him in the No. 5 spot, but if it turns out he's a great reliever I'm not gonna get too worked up about it.

 

But, you're never going to convince me a pitcher can provide more value throwing 70 innings instead of 200. Yes, high-leverage innings are the most important, but if your starters get blown out it's pretty tough to get use out of a great pen.

 

The first inning is the highest-leverage inning of the entire game in my eyes.

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#27 mazeville

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:38 AM

Keep him in the pen. Please keep him in the pen. He's good there. His track record as starter isn't that great. The Twins need good relievers.

 

I mean, they need good starters, too. But I'd rather give Berrios another shot.

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#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:44 AM

I'd keep him as a reliever and not think twice about it.

 

If the rest of the rotation implodes and there are no acceptable options anywhere in the org, reconsider.

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#29 Nick Nelson

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:44 AM

 

Dilemma? Not sure I see it:

 

Duffey sucked as a starter. Duffey has been good in the pen.

He has made four relief appearances. Four. 

In 22 starts at AAA he has a 2.80 ERA. In 10 starts with the Twins in 2015 he had a 3.10 ERA. Lots of good starters have had one bad year. 

I tend to agree with the conclusion that Duffey should stay in the bullpen (especially since I've long been pushing for it) but how about bringing more nuanced analysis than 'so-and-so sucks'?

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#30 Parker Hageman

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:45 AM

Not sure if it is related to the bullpen switch or not but Duffey's biggest improvement is being able to throw his fastball for a strike. He's thrown 72% of his fastballs in zone (compared to 51% last year).

 

He has also gotten strike one more frequently (68% vs 62% in 2016) which sets up other pieces of his arsenal nicely. 

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#31 hybridbear

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:46 AM

Perkins struggled as a starter & then became a dominant closer. Duffey struggled as a starter and now is pitching well so far out of the bullpen. I'd like to see him take over as closer for the Twins at some point this season. If he's the best pitcher in the Twins' bullpen, I think he might be, then he should be used in the highest leverage situations. He was a great closer in college so he should be used to the pressure situations from those days.


#32 Dr. Evil

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:46 AM

He has found success in the pen. Why mess with that? Leave him there. We need solid relievers. Our pen has been lousey in recent years.

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#33 Respy

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:48 AM

Ignoring the numbers, and just watching him pitch in different roles, it looks clear to me that he belongs in the bullpen.  Keep him there for now if he is finding success.  We have too many other good starting options coming up in AA and AAA.


#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:48 AM

 

Looks like I'm in the minority, but I'm of the mind that you keep a player in the spot where he could provide the most value until you're convinced he will be unusable in that role. Maybe Duffey as a starter was a lost cause, but if we're gonna give Kyle Gibson 101 starts, I would've been fine giving Duffey more than 36.

 

Yes, he was bad last year, but maybe with the new evaluation team and Castro/Gimenez able to help we would have seen something extra from Tyler. That's a great tidbit about his change in positioning on he rubber, you never know how little stuff like that can make big differences.

 

I would have put him in the No. 5 spot, but if it turns out he's a great reliever I'm not gonna get too worked up about it.

 

But, you're never going to convince me a pitcher can provide more value throwing 70 innings instead of 200. Yes, high-leverage innings are the most important, but if your starters get blown out it's pretty tough to get use out of a great pen.

 

The first inning is the highest-leverage inning of the entire game in my eyes.

 

Well, we know with certainty that last sentence isn't actually true.

 

Now, I agree, I would have sent him to AAA to be a starter. But, they didn't do that. IMO, jerking him around, back and forth, is a bad idea for him. Can they move him back to starter, if his change improves with time/work? Sure. But at some point, they need to make a decision.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#35 spycake

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:57 AM

Yeah, this does seem premature.  Through 4 games last year, Duffey was looking pretty good too -- 8.5 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.85 ERA, 2.96 RA9.  And that was 4 starts, three times the innings he's logged so far this season, and they weren't all against slouch opponents either -- Cleveland, Detroit, and Washington (plus the White Sox, which might be a slouch opponent :) ).

 

I mean, I hope he can keep it up too, but I don't know how helpful it is to invoke Andrew Miller at this point.

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#36 SadMinnySportsFan

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:58 AM

I think keeping him in the pen is the best option. sure, maybe they give him another go at being a starter...but I think this back and forth back and forth can wear on a guy. See May, Trevor for an example. Duffy was an outstanding college reliever and his 1-2 pitch combo is much more contusive to being a reliever. Twins seem to have found something that works, don't mess it up now!


#37 spycake

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:02 AM

Ervin Santana had a terrible year as a starter early in his career too -- 5.74 ERA / 5.13 FIP in 2007.  The Angels were wise to let him continue starting.  Even roughly league average run prevention as a full-time starter can be pretty valuable.

 

(For that matter, Ervin had two later poor years too.)

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#38 Steve Lein

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:06 AM

 

Not sure if it is related to the bullpen switch or not but Duffey's biggest improvement is being able to throw his fastball for a strike. He's thrown 72% of his fastballs in zone (compared to 51% last year).

 

He has also gotten strike one more frequently (68% vs 62% in 2016) which sets up other pieces of his arsenal nicely. 

 

This is the thing. He has two pitches and one of them is significantly better than the other. His issue, is the better pitch is NOT his fastball. It didn't take long for professional hitters to figure out that you can simply not swing at his curveball and sit fastball.

 

This is exactly why his FB zone % was so off last year compared to the year before. They weren't swinging at his curveball, and crushing his fastballs in the zone. Thus he had to try and nibble with it. It had the expected adverse effect.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#39 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:11 AM

I don't understand the desire to write him off as a starter this fast.He was a good starter in 2015.Very good.For a team that needs upside guys there, you don't write off a young option just because he has been good in the pen. 

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#40 d-mac

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 10:12 AM

I think Duffey can be a #3 starter, which is more valuable than pitching out of the bullpen in any role. For his career as a MLB starter he's put up a xFIP of 3.82 and a SIERA of 3.98. The only reason he struggled last year was his redonkulous HR/FB% of 19.5%. For even the most homer prone starter that is unsustainably high.

 

Comparing his (very SSS) underlying peripheral stats as a reliever to his starting career there is no difference in K%, a slight decrease in his already solid BB%, but career high hard hit% and career low soft hit%. Literally, the only reason he looks so much better in the bullpen than in the rotation is going from a 19.5% HR/FB last year to 0% this year. 

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