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Article: Santiago Starting To Turn Heads

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#61 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:28 AM

 

So your optimism depends on him ranking around the 10th percentile of all (qualified) batters in BAPIP? Good luck with that.

I wouldn't rule it out entirely, no.

 

And you're talking about a .750-.770 OPS and I'm talking about an .800 OPS. That's about 7-8 hits scattered over the course of a season, or about one extra hit every 20 games.

 

Is that truly unreasonable?

 

The fact is that neither you nor I have any idea where Grossman will land when it comes to BABIP because he doesn't have the track record one way or the other.


#62 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:33 AM

 

Until he actually plays in the OF, then his defensive shortcomings make him a liability.

 

How so? offensively, he is putting up about 2 WAR as a DH.....that's quite high, actually. He put up over 1 WAR even being historically bad on D last year, something I doubt he could repeat. But as a DH, he's actually above average.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#63 Oxtung

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:42 AM

 

How so? offensively, he is putting up about 2 WAR as a DH.....that's quite high, actually. He put up over 1 WAR even being historically bad on D last year, something I doubt he could repeat. But as a DH, he's actually above average.

That was my point Mike.  He has negative value in the field, whether that is as much as last season or not he is a poor fielder.  I am actually liking him at the DH position. Keep the bat in the lineup and the glove off the field.  Of course that raises issues about who the 4th OF would be but that is a different conversation.


#64 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:48 AM

 

That was my point Mike.  He has negative value in the field, whether that is as much as last season or not he is a poor fielder.  I am actually liking him at the DH position. Keep the bat in the lineup and the glove off the field.  Of course that raises issues about who the 4th OF would be but that is a different conversation.

One could also argue the following:

 

1. Grossman's bat is slightly more valuable in LF than DH

2. The Twins have three centerfielders already on the roster

3. Grossman crushes LHP

4. All of those centerfielders have questionable, bad, or terrible bats against LHP

 

If you play Grossman in a corner spot once a week against a lefty, is the 200 OPS points you gain with his bat offset by his decreased defensive ability?

 

I honestly don't know the answer to that question but I suspect it's not clearcut either way... and the offensive flexibility it affords the Twins to replace Santana with Vargas is pretty hard to resist.

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#65 kab21

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:50 AM

 

I wouldn't rule it out entirely, no.

 

And you're talking about a .750-.770 OPS and I'm talking about an .800 OPS. That's about 7-8 hits scattered over the course of a season, or about one extra hit every 20 games.

 

Is that truly unreasonable?

 

The fact is that neither you nor I have any idea where Grossman will land when it comes to BABIP because he doesn't have the track record one way or the other.

You did say .800+ and the .750-.770 number was only for BAPIP drop. I said I expect him around .750. In addition his SLG is still higher than expected. And he is getting rested a lot vs RHP.

And don't discount what a 50 points of OPS is. It is the difference between a very good to great player and a good one.

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#66 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:53 AM

 

You did say .800+ and the .750-.770 number was only for BAPIP drop. I said I expect him around .750. In addition his SLG is still higher than expected. And he is getting rested a lot vs RHP.

And don't discount what a 50 points of OPS is. It is the difference between a very good to great player and a good one.

Oh, not discounting it at all. My initial expectation for Grossman going into the season was, like you, around a .750 OPS.

 

All I'm saying is that I'm beginning to question that expectation. I'm still not sold on Grossman but I'm opening up to the idea that he's a lot better than I expected him to be.


#67 Oxtung

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:54 AM

 

One could also argue the following:

 

1. Grossman's bat is slightly more valuable in LF than DH

2. The Twins have three centerfielders already on the roster

3. Grossman crushes LHP

4. All of those centerfielders have questionable, bad, or terrible bats against LHP

 

If you play Grossman in a corner spot once a week against a lefty, is the 200 OPS points you gain with his bat offset by his decreased defensive ability?

 

I honestly don't know the answer to that question but I suspect it's not clearcut either way... and the offensive flexibility it affords the Twins to replace Santana with Vargas is pretty hard to resist.

I would argue the solution to that problem is a better 4th OF.  Then you can keep Grossman's .800 OPS bat in the lineup and not have a large drop in the OF defense.  Given the Twins flyball prone pitching this seems preferable to me.  


#68 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:59 AM

 

I would argue the solution to that problem is a better 4th OF.  Then you can keep Grossman's .800 OPS bat in the lineup and not have a large drop in the OF defense.  Given the Twins flyball prone pitching this seems preferable to me.  

But that doesn't fix the Mauer problem. Even when Joe is "rolling", he only tops out as an .800 OPS guy at this point in his career. Adding a quasi-platoon bat to spell both Mauer and Grossman from their daily roles seems like a good way to increase offensive capabilities overall.

 

The only reason I'd even consider this is because the Twins are in a rather unique situation. They have an elite guy in center and two guys at the corners who can hold their own in center.

 

I believe this opportunity affords the Twins a luxury few other teams enjoy: the ability to carry a fourth outfielder who can hit.

 

Because you're not going to get a fourth outfielder who can hit and field. Those guys are more commonly referred to as "starting outfielders".

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#69 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 10:01 AM

I'm also not convinced Grossman would be that bad again this year.....I also don't get why he isn't practicing at 1B every day...

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#70 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 11:26 AM

 

But that doesn't fix the Mauer problem. Even when Joe is "rolling", he only tops out as an .800 OPS guy at this point in his career. Adding a quasi-platoon bat to spell both Mauer and Grossman from their daily roles seems like a good way to increase offensive capabilities overall.

 

The only reason I'd even consider this is because the Twins are in a rather unique situation. They have an elite guy in center and two guys at the corners who can hold their own in center.

 

I believe this opportunity affords the Twins a luxury few other teams enjoy: the ability to carry a fourth outfielder who can hit.

 

Because you're not going to get a fourth outfielder who can hit and field. Those guys are more commonly referred to as "starting outfielders".

Add to that there is no good 4th OF in AAA - Shuck isn't hitting in AAA even and he's not much of an OF , Palka needs AAA time and strikes out to much, Granite needs AAA time to prove himself and he's hurt - and there isn't any need for or good reason to add a 4th OF absent injury.  We're good where we are and can make roster decisions based on bringing up the best  players without being so worried about making sure one of them is an OF. Bye bye DanSan, Hello Vargas, Adrianza or Park. 

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#71 howieramone2

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 09:57 AM

 

Given that ownership and the former GM both have stated in the past that budgets and money for the team don't work that way.....not really.

There is a new sheriff in town.

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#72 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:03 AM

 

There is a new sheriff in town.

 

Well, every team has pretty much said they operate on an annual budget, this is not unique to the Twins.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#73 howieramone2

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:12 AM

 

Well, every team has pretty much said they operate on an annual budget, this is not unique to the Twins.

I believe every business in America has an annual budget, so what's your point?

Some of our members pretend to believe they are smarter than our FO. I pretend I believe them. 


#74 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:16 AM

 

I believe every business in America has an annual budget, so what's your point?

 

Baseball teams don't carry money over year to year, they operate on an annual basis, not carrying over unspent "capital" to future years like some other businesses do. So, if htey don't spend it this year, they just pocket it. That's what teams have communicated quite broadly over the last few years on many websites and interviews. 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#75 howieramone2

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:21 AM

 

Baseball teams don't carry money over year to year, they operate on an annual basis, not carrying over unspent "capital" to future years like some other businesses do. So, if htey don't spend it this year, they just pocket it. That's what teams have communicated quite broadly over the last few years on many websites and interviews. 

You are overgeneralizing. Neither you, nor I know what every baseball team does, or can do. Once again, there is a new sheriff in town.

Edited by howieramone2, 21 April 2017 - 10:24 AM.

Some of our members pretend to believe they are smarter than our FO. I pretend I believe them. 


#76 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:24 AM

 

You are overgeneralizing. Neither you, nor I know what every baseball teams does, or can do. Once again, there is a new sheriff in town.

 

Have you ever read anything other than this, on FG, ESPN, CBS, here, or anywhere? I haven't. And, as I pointed out, that's what they communicate, and hence what we know. We can't really know anything else other than what they say, and what they do. 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#77 kab21

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:40 AM

 

You are overgeneralizing. Neither you, nor I know what every baseball team does, or can do. Once again, there is a new sheriff in town.

Not really. The new sheriff decides how the money is spent. Pohlad decides how much is spent each year.

And how exactly did this start? About the 1M difference between what the Nolasco is being paid (including the part the Twins pay) and what Santiago is being paid?

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Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#78 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:45 AM

It's not really worth arguing over, frankly.

 

They spent whatever they thought they'd save on Nolasco on Santiago. A decision I endorse. 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#79 howieramone2

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 10:55 AM

 

Not really. The new sheriff decides how the money is spent. Pohlad decides how much is spent each year.

And how exactly did this start? About the 1M difference between what the Nolasco is being paid (including the part the Twins pay) and what Santiago is being paid?

The old sheriff said on many occasions, every time he approached ownership about additional funds it was approved. No reason to believe the new sheriff is operating under different constrains. The point is a bad contract was eliminated, and we have plenty of money to spend. 

Some of our members pretend to believe they are smarter than our FO. I pretend I believe them. 


#80 kab21

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 11:01 AM

 

The old sheriff said on many occasions, every time he approached ownership about additional funds it was approved. No reason to believe the new sheriff is operating under different constrains. The point is a bad contract was eliminated, and we have plenty of money to spend. 

But the money was spent on Santiago (+/- 1M). The Twins might have plenty of money to spend but that has nothing to do with Nolasco other than they are getting something useful out of Santiago.

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Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.