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Article: Santiago Starting To Turn Heads

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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:19 AM

 

I'm tired of being told that judging Buxton this early is wrong/bad/evil, as if the last 2 years didn't happen and we are just knee jerk loser fans. And yes, that's what is being said.

Well, it kinda seems everyone is right to me. Buxton is having huge problems right now. He's also played only a dozen games.

 

If Buxton hadn't shown windmill tendencies in the past, I'd chalk this up to a horrific start and that's that. But this isn't new to Buxton. He's done this before. And we should be really concerned about it happening over and over again.

 

On the flip side of that coin, he's begun to strike out less in recent games. He looks a bit more cohesive at the plate. If he keeps trending in that direction, he should begin to come around. And given how early it is in the season, if he has three consecutive good games, this problem fades from memory in a hurry.

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#42 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:23 AM

 

Well, it kinda seems everyone is right to me. Buxton is having huge problems right now. He's also played only a dozen games.

 

If Buxton hadn't shown windmill tendencies in the past, I'd chalk this up to a horrific start and that's that. But this isn't new to Buxton. He's done this before. And we should be really concerned about it happening over and over again.

 

On the flip side of that coin, he's begun to strike out less in recent games. He looks a bit more cohesive at the plate. If he keeps trending in that direction, he should begin to come around. And given how early it is in the season, if he has three consecutive good games, this problem fades from memory in a hurry.

 

I'm looking, as KLAW suggested, for months of good outcomes before I can erase months of bad outcomes from my mind.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#43 drjim

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:28 AM

I'm tired of being told that judging Buxton this early is wrong/bad/evil, as if the last 2 years didn't happen and we are just knee jerk loser fans. And yes, that's what is being said.


I, for one, appreciate the burden you're willing to bear for the good of the board.

It's a lonely island to say Buxton is struggling right now.
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#44 kab21

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:29 AM

 

EDITED out

 

Baseball is a long, grueling season. I'll ride the ups and downs but I won't let them control me.

 

I also won't wave the Hector Santiago flag loud and proud for the same reason. I'm glad he's off to a good start but he's still Hector-freakin-Santiago.

But Robbie-freakin-Grossman OTOH ;)

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#45 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:31 AM

 

I, for one, appreciate the burden you're willing to bear for the good of the board.

It's a lonely island to say Buxton is struggling right now.

 

this made me laugh out loud. Nicely done. 

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#46 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:32 AM

 

But Robbie-freakin-Grossman OTOH ;)

Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question:

 

When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take?

 

And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward.

 

Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.

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#47 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:38 AM

 

I'm looking, as KLAW suggested, for months of good outcomes before I can erase months of bad outcomes from my mind.

I agree. Waiting for Buck to have a 2 for 4 game with 2 doubles and 5 RBI in a 6-4 win. Some will proclaim that Buck is now a star!

I believe consistent hitting will come.

I am, on the other hand, finding it increasingly difficult to be patient.

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#48 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:39 AM

 

Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question:

 

When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take?

 

And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward.

 

Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.

 

I'd say it's close. Another half year of this, and it's hard to say he's not this, imo.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#49 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:40 AM

 

I'd say it's close. Another half year of this, and it's hard to say he's not this, imo.

Yeah, pretty much my thoughts as well.


#50 kab21

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:54 AM

 

Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question:

 

When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take?

 

And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward.

 

Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.

600 PA's is still just one full season and players have lucky seasons all the time. 

Santana had 430 great PA's his rookie year. Rosario had 480 pretty good PA's his rookie year. But maybe 600 PA's is the magic number.

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#51 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:54 AM

There was a time when Robbie Grossman was considered a hot Pirates prospect and Houston pursued him as part of a trade. Maybe he just took a couple of extra years to hit his stride. .  I think Grossman is for real as a .280/.375/.425 kind of hitter. Also food for thought on waiting for Rosario and Buxton to hit their potential (for that matter, Kepler and Polanco too). Sometimes it takes some time.   

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#52 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:55 AM

 

600 PA's is still just one full season and players have lucky seasons all the time. 

Santana had 430 great PA's his rookie year. Rosario had 480 pretty good PA's his rookie year. But maybe 600 PA's is the magic number.

 

But Grossman's success isn't driven by unsustainable luck like Santana's was. His fall was predictable. What in Grossman's success looks like luck?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#53 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:00 AM

 

600 PA's is still just one full season and players have lucky seasons all the time. 

Santana had 430 great PA's his rookie year. Rosario had 480 pretty good PA's his rookie year. But maybe 600 PA's is the magic number.

If it was one season, I'd be more skeptical of it... But picking up a second half season and performing at the same level gives it a bit more weight, IMO.

 

Guys get hot all the time and ride that streak for a couple of months. Picking up that hot streak six months later and doing it again seems more unlikely, IMO.

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#54 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:01 AM

 

But Grossman's success isn't driven by unsustainable luck like Santana's was. His fall was predictable. What in Grossman's success looks like luck?

His BABIP is maybe 20 points too high, 30 points tops.

 

It's hardly the 60-80 points Santana and Colabello saw in their "breakout" seasons.


#55 drjim

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:02 AM

There was a time when Robbie Grossman was considered a hot Pirates prospect and Houston pursued him as part of a trade. Maybe he just took a couple of extra years to hit his stride. . I think Grossman is for real as a .280/.375/.425 kind of hitter. Also food for thought on waiting for Rosario and Buxton to hit their potential (for that matter, Kepler and Polanco too). Sometimes it takes some time.


Not only that, they were trying to sign him to an early extension (which Grossman turned down). So he isn't exactly coming from nowhere.
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#56 kab21

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:02 AM

 

But Grossman's success isn't driven by unsustainable luck like Santana's was. His fall was predictable. What in Grossman's success looks like luck?

.370 BAPIP

Let's consider him an above average BAPIP hitter and he can maintain a .320-.330 BAPIP. The reduction in BAPIP will knock 60-80 points (or thereabouts) off of his OPS along. Now we are talking about .750-.775 hitter. I can see .750-ish out of him. But .800+? Not really.

And multiple projection solidly put him around .730.

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#57 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:04 AM

 

.370 BAPIP

Let's consider him an above average BAPIP hitter and he can maintain a .320-.330 BAPIP. The reduction in BAPIP will knock 60-80 points (or thereabouts) off of his OPS along. Now we are talking about .750-.775 hitter. I can see .750-ish out of him. But .800+? Not really.

And multiple projection solidly put him around .730.

It's definitely a question but I looked at Grossman's peripherals a bit more closely and it's entirely possible he's a .340-.350 BABIP guy. He puts few balls in the air, a decent amount are line drives, and quite a few are on the ground.

 

That's going to lead to an abnormally high BABIP. Also fewer homers than he's probably capable of hitting but that's okay.


#58 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:04 AM

That would make him about median for corner OFers....a 730-750 OPS. I'd take a median OF right now.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#59 kab21

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:17 AM

 

It's definitely a question but I looked at Grossman's peripherals a bit more closely and it's entirely possible he's a .340-.350 BABIP guy. He puts few balls in the air, a decent amount are line drives, and quite a few are on the ground.

 

That's going to lead to an abnormally high BABIP. Also fewer homers than he's probably capable of hitting but that's okay.

So your optimism depends on him ranking around the 10th percentile of all (qualified) batters in BAPIP? Good luck with that.

 

That would make him about median for corner OFers....a 730-750 OPS. I'd take a median OF right now.

I will take it also. In fact it is what I projected BEFORE the season began when some people wanted to cut him.

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#60 Oxtung

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:27 AM

 

That would make him about median for corner OFers....a 730-750 OPS. I'd take a median OF right now.

Until he actually plays in the OF, then his defensive shortcomings make him a liability.