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Article: Santiago Starting To Turn Heads

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#21 howieramone2

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:55 AM

 

Bit of a small sample to declare those trade wins wouldn't ya say?

 

(And this is from someone that argued vociferously that the deal was a good one at the time)

 

It's not like we spent the Nolasco money this offseason either, so let's not go down that road....

Who says we have to spend it during the offseason? It was money earmarked to be spent in 2017 and we have plenty of 2017 left. 

Edited by howieramone2, 19 April 2017 - 10:00 AM.


#22 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 09:57 AM

 

His 90.0% LOB, 4.2 HR/FB, .222 BABIP along with 15.3% K% / 5.4 K/9 and 4.76 xFIP makes me think that it will be nice to enjoy the mirage while it lasts (or even better, finding a trade partner ASAP.)

But Thrylos, that's the point. He always outperforms his peripherals.

He had a good year going last year (10-4 for the Angels), faltered badly for like 4 games upon being traded, then closed out with like 5 of his last 7 starts being quality starts.

Do I think he will maintain a 1.47 ERA? Of course not.

 

He does everything wrong. He lives up in the zone. Very few successful pitchers do that.

He seldom goes 7 innings. That's annoying.

To me, he is just very interesting, and that makes him fun.

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#23 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 10:02 AM

 

His 90.0% LOB, 4.2 HR/FB, .222 BABIP along with 15.3% K% / 5.4 K/9 and 4.76 xFIP makes me think that it will be nice to enjoy the mirage while it lasts (or even better, finding a trade partner ASAP.)

Some of Santiago's peripherals are concerning but he's another situation - an inverse Nolasco - where FIP is failing to account for something in the makeup of the player.

 

Santiago's career FIP is one full run higher than his ERA in 733 innings across three different teams.

 

At some point, we need to conclude that FIP just plain wrong about some players.

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#24 Tom Froemming

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 10:17 AM

 

This is merely an observation -- thecalled-strike graphic indicates three in-zone pitches were called balls and three out-of-zone pitches were called strikes.  Net zero.  The all-unhit-pitches graphic looks impressive, but includes swinging misses.  Maybe Castro's ability to get calls influences out-of-zone swings, but that's certainly not a given.  

 

Again --Castro's framing may be fantastic -- but I don't see how this single-day's data shows any positive effect, even about the day.  

We looking at the same graphic? I see one sure strike called a ball and like seven pitches out of the zone called strikes. The solid box is the actual strike zone, right? Or am in misinterpreting that?


#25 spycake

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 10:17 AM

 

Some of Santiago's peripherals are concerning but he's another situation - an inverse Nolasco - where FIP is failing to account for something in the makeup of the player.

 

Santiago's career FIP is one full run higher than his ERA in 733 innings across three different teams.

 

At some point, we need to conclude that FIP just plain wrong about some players.

I think Santiago could continue to out-perform his FIP.

 

But right now in 2017, he's out-performing it by almost two runs.  And it's also a career-low FIP by almost a run too.  (And in fairness to Thrylos, he was citing xFIP, and Santiago's 2017 HR rate is only 38% of his career rate, and only 30% of his 2016 rate.)

 

This isn't a FIP issue, it's a small sample / peripherals issue.

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#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 10:19 AM

 

I think Santiago could continue to out-perform his FIP.

 

But right now in 2017, he's out-performing it by almost two runs.  And it's also a career-low FIP by almost a run too.  (And in fairness to Thrylos, he was citing xFIP, and Santiago's 2017 HR rate is only 38% of his career rate, and only 30% of his 2016 rate.)

 

This isn't a FIP issue, it's a small sample / peripherals issue.

Oh, sure, I didn't mean to conclude that Santiago is suddenly a #1 or even #2 pitcher, only that using FIP has never been an accurate measure of his value as a pitcher.

 

He'll probably settle somewhere near his career numbers: a 4-ish ERA and close to a 5-ish FIP, give or take half a run.

 

Or he could implode spectacularly. I don't have much faith in the guy.

 

At any rate, right now he looks a lot more like the guy the Twins traded for than the guy who pitched for the team in the second half of 2016.

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#27 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:45 PM

 

Who says we have to spend it during the offseason? It was money earmarked to be spent in 2017 and we have plenty of 2017 left. 

 

Given that ownership and the former GM both have stated in the past that budgets and money for the team don't work that way.....not really.


#28 stringer bell

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:49 PM

From what I can see, the new strike zone and new catcher both help Santiago. He works up in the zone (so did Phil Hughes during his fine 2014) and has a lot of balls hit in the air. The good defensive outfield the Twins can put out there helps greatly, so does the weather if the fly balls aren't carrying that much.

 

It is an oversimplification to say pitches at the top of the zone are mistakes, particularly fastballs. Last night, Bert criticized every well-hit ball by the Tribe with "he got that one up", more accurately the pitches were up in the zone and over the heart of the plate. Movement can allow a high strike over the middle to be a good pitch, too.


#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:51 PM

 

From what I can see, the new strike zone and new catcher both help Santiago. He works up in the zone (so did Phil Hughes during his fine 2014) and has a lot of balls hit in the air. The good defensive outfield the Twins can put out there helps greatly, so does the weather if the fly balls aren't carrying that much.

 

It is an oversimplification to say pitches at the top of the zone are mistakes, particularly fastballs. Last night, Bert criticized every well-hit ball by the Tribe with "he got that one up", more accurately the pitches were up in the zone and over the heart of the plate. Movement can allow a high strike over the middle to be a good pitch, too.

 

Of course, we know that hitters are trying to hit "up" on the ball, and higher pitches inhibit that. Bert is rather stuck on this point, and has been forever.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#30 Winston Smith

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:54 PM

With him Santana and Dozier we could have 3 real strong trade chips come July.

If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

 

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#31 KirbyDome89

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:55 PM

 

Who says we have to spend it during the offseason? It was money earmarked to be spent in 2017 and we have plenty of 2017 left. 

It was spent in 2017. The "savings," from that trade are gone. They used the money to resign Santiago and they're paying part of Nolasco's salary this season. 


#32 drjim

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:56 PM

 

With him Santana and Dozier we could have 3 real strong trade chips come July.

 

I wouldn't sleep on Kintzler either.

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#33 MN_ExPat

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 03:12 PM

So can we safely say that Santiago is the Bumble Bee of pitchers?He defies the laws nature of FIP (I.E. Flight).

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#34 drivlikejehu

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 04:19 PM

His swinging strike rate is well above his career norms - 10.5% instead of 8-8.5% (it dipped below that in 2014 but then came back up). On a related note, hitters so far have chased outside the zone much more often than has been the case in the past against Santiago.

 

So, arguably his xFIP is misleading, regardless of whether he has the true ability to outperform it, because his strikeout rate is lower than would be expected based on his swinging strike %. 

 

But . . . it's 18 innings. Pitch data seems to indicate that his stuff and command are basically in line with the past. He certainly could have a decent year but there's no reason to think he's stepped up his overall game.

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#35 Doomtints

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 06:22 PM

Before we crown either Santiago or Castro as Totally Awesome™, let's let the sample size grow a bit.


#36 Linus

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 06:35 PM

Before we crown either Santiago or Castro as Totally Awesome™, let's let the sample size grow a bit.

Yep and we can do the same with Mauer, Rosario and Buxton before we burn them at the stake.
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#37 kab21

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 07:39 PM

 

His 90.0% LOB, 4.2 HR/FB, .222 BABIP along with 15.3% K% / 5.4 K/9 and 4.76 xFIP makes me think that it will be nice to enjoy the mirage while it lasts (or even better, finding a trade partner ASAP.)

Of course a 1.47 ERA is a mirage just like the 5.58 ERA last season with the Twins was a mirage. I think nearly everyone in this thread expects him to revert back to the average 4.00 (career ERA is a little lower) that he has always been and your stats do nothing to refute that.

I think we should all have the expectation that every GM knows that Santiago will go back to being Santiago. There is no find a trade partner fast because he has had 3 great starts.

The issue that I see the Twins facing is somehow clinging to a .500 record and not selling Santana or Santiago. Of course as a fan of MN sports I expect an 6 game losing streak at some point breaking our hearts. But winning would be great even if we weren't able to pawn off a couple of veterans for mediocre prospects.

Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#38 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 07:49 AM

 

Yep and we can do the same with Mauer, Rosario and Buxton before we burn them at the stake.

 

It's almost like the last 2 years didn't happen, and people are only judging these guys on this year. Not.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:03 AM

 

It's almost like the last 2 years didn't happen, and people are only judging these guys on this year. Not.

Sure, Buxton and Mauer have question marks but people are concerned about Rosario.

 

Why?

 

It's fine to show emotion and want players to succeed. What I find maddening is watching people who have been baseball fans for a decade or longer gnashing their teeth over a dozen games. What an exhausting way to live.

 

Yes, I'm concerned about Buxton. I'm concerned about Mauer. I'm watching Rosario closely... but man, it's 14 games. If Rosario has two good games, he jumps above his career OPS. If Buxton or Mauer have two good games, their numbers are suddenly respectable.

 

Baseball is a long, grueling season. I'll ride the ups and downs but I won't let them control me.

 

I also won't wave the Hector Santiago flag loud and proud for the same reason. I'm glad he's off to a good start but he's still Hector-freakin-Santiago.


#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 08:13 AM

I'm tired of being told that judging Buxton this early is wrong/bad/evil, as if the last 2 years didn't happen and we are just knee jerk loser fans. And yes, that's what is being said.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?