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Relief Pitching, 538 way

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#1 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 01:50 PM

This is a great article about how RP and the save statistic are kind of bad for baseball.....

 

https://fivethirtyei...=espn:mlb:index

 

and, it has some nice hearted snark, imo.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#2 Sssuperdave

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 02:37 PM

This is a seriously good article and new statistic. 

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#3 TheLeviathan

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 08:42 PM

Awesome read, thanks!


#4 snepp

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 09:05 PM

I'm sold.

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#5 Willihammer

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 09:04 AM

I like it. 

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#6 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 09:47 AM

I know it is full of snark, but it is actually a great stat. What we choose to measure, and how we measure it, should be done to help us improve who/what we do. Saves incent bad behavior, imo.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 11:53 AM

Yes, this, so much this.

 

I hate the save statistic with a fiery passion.

 

Which is why I'm okay with Kintzler being the "closer". If teams are going to play around a statistic, the "closer" should be:

 

1. A competent pitcher

2. A guy who doesn't give up homers on demand

3. The team's third best reliever

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#8 TNTwinsFan

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 02:55 PM

I can see two guys on the roster that could fill this role and do it well:

1. Tyler Duffy
2. Ryan Pressley

I think Duffy has the stuff, the mentality, and now (because of his work as a starter for the past few years) the durability to handle the position.

DO. IT.

#9 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 03:06 PM

I want them to try Duffy in this role, very much. Probably also/or Haley. 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#10 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 03:08 PM

I like it.

As long as they don't use a name that 'honors' a guy who is at best a jerk and more likely a [redacted] [redacted] [redacted].

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#11 WLFINN

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 03:17 PM

Based on nothing but my own observation, I think Molly and/or Levine-Falvey have already been using the relievers in this way moreso than has been done in the past.Pressly and Duffey have been the individuals used in such situations.


#12 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 03:22 PM

I don't like it. But only because I completely agree and have been advocating for the last half decade or so that the Twins groome "closers" by inflating Joe Blow bullpen guys with save stats and flipping them. It's super easy to create a closer out of thin air; can't really do that with any other position.

So long dreams of riches and undeserved prospects.
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#13 Thrylos

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 03:56 PM

Based on this little thing from there, one can use WPA to measure relievers and call it a day.Not sure I like it (according to this Taylor Rogers and Ryan O'Rourke were the Twins' best relievers in 2016,) but WPA is a stat easy to find:

silver-goose-0417-3-3.png?quality=90&str

Edited by Thrylos, 18 April 2017 - 03:59 PM.

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#14 ashburyjohn

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 11:46 AM

People want counting stats they can see with the aid of a scoresheet at most, in preference to most rate stats more complex than BA and ERA. Win Probability Added is more in the latter part of the spectrum.

 

I do like WPA though, as it is a decent stab at combining performance with leverage.

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#15 Sssuperdave

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 11:57 AM

 

Based on this little thing from there, one can use WPA to measure relievers and call it a day.Not sure I like it (according to this Taylor Rogers and Ryan O'Rourke were the Twins' best relievers in 2016,) but WPA is a stat easy to find:

silver-goose-0417-3-3.png?quality=90&str

 

 

You could "use WPA" to measure relief pitchers, but the Goose egg stat helps put some heuristics around when the opportunities for a high WPA will present themselves. Goose eggs inform reliever usage and WPA informs reliever effectiveness.

Edited by Sssuperdave, 19 April 2017 - 11:57 AM.

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#16 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:06 PM

Not to mention that correlation =/= as effective or the same.....as he points out literally in the article. 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#17 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:11 AM

 

You could "use WPA" to measure relief pitchers, but the Goose egg stat helps put some heuristics around when the opportunities for a high WPA will present themselves. Goose eggs inform reliever usage and WPA informs reliever effectiveness.

Yes. There is plenty of room for different stats.

 

Imagine you're in a broadcast booth. Now try to explain what WPA means because saying the number 2.1 doesn't mean squat to the audience. Was that in 31 appearances or 65 appearances? How many innings pitched? What is the player's typical role out of the bullpen, fifth or eighth inning? The number, on its own, means virtually nothing. It's super-useful for a deeper analysis and comparison of performance but not good for on-the-fly talking.

 

Whereas counting stats have their use in the quick-and-dirty analysis that often happens on live radio/television. When a guy is pitching to a batter, the announcer doesn't have time to spend 90 seconds explaining to the audience all the situations that led to that 2.1 WPA.

 

But saying "Tonkin has 21 Goose Eggs and 4 Broken Eggs" gives you lots of information in just ten words.

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#18 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:30 AM

 

Yes. There is plenty of room for different stats.

 

Imagine you're in a broadcast booth. Now try to explain what WPA means because saying the number 2.1 doesn't mean squat to the audience. Was that in 31 appearances or 65 appearances? How many innings pitched? What is the player's typical role out of the bullpen, fifth or eighth inning? The number, on its own, means virtually nothing. It's super-useful for a deeper analysis and comparison of performance but not good for on-the-fly talking.

 

Whereas counting stats have their use in the quick-and-dirty analysis that often happens on live radio/television. When a guy is pitching to a batter, the announcer doesn't have time to spend 90 seconds explaining to the audience all the situations that led to that 2.1 WPA.

 

But saying "Tonkin has 21 Goose Eggs and 4 Broken Eggs" gives you lots of information in just ten words.

 

Correct, I'd say this stat is elegant, whereas WPA is not.....I prefer elegant. 

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#19 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:35 AM

 

Correct, I'd say this stat is elegant, whereas WPA is not.....I prefer elegant. 

Yeah, elegant is one way to put it... Mostly, I view them as having different roles.

 

Sometimes, I want to say Eddie Rosario has an 80.3% contact rate, swings at 43.7% of pitches out of the zone, 78.4% of pitches in the zone, and is hamstrung by a .213 BABIP.

 

Other times, I just want to say Eddie Rosario has a .621 OPS.

 

In some situations, the deep dive leads to better, more nuanced analysis. In other situations, you just want to keep it (somewhat) superficial and talk about results.

 

There is no right answer for all situations.

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#20 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:37 AM

It's funny how uptight some people get, when you use counting stats to talk about the past and outcomes, as if more predictive stats tell the same story. They don't. different stats are used for different stories. 

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?