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Hicks for Murphy trade: 14 months later

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#341 spycake

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Posted 27 July 2017 - 12:14 PM

Hey, he's going to carry an above .900 OPS into August. :)
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#342 Doomtints

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Posted 30 July 2017 - 06:25 PM

 

Hey, he's going to carry an above .900 OPS into August. :)

 

Being out the past 5 weeks probably helped that more than anything.

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#343 spycake

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Posted 30 July 2017 - 07:30 PM

Being out the past 5 weeks probably helped that more than anything.


:) = joke!

:)
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#344 SwainZag

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:08 PM

Hicks has struggled pretty bad since coming off the DL to the tune of .156/.269/.333 in 45 AB.

 

Season line down to .265/.375/.482/.857

 

To quote Dave from June, "If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place."

 

For Comparison:  Rosario: .300/.340/.505/.845

 

Is this still the case?

 

Edited by SwainZag, 22 August 2017 - 12:10 PM.

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#345 Taildragger8791

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:29 PM

 

Hicks has struggled pretty bad since coming off the DL to the tune of .156/.269/.333 in 45 AB.

 

Season line down to .265/.375/.482/.857

 

To quote Dave from June, "If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place."

 

For Comparison:  Rosario: .300/.340/.505/.845

 

Is this still the case?

 

I don't think 11 games after returning from a long DL stint is really the best time to be making judgements about a player. He had a 5-game run in there that was actually pretty good, and now a 5-game run that isn't. That's the shortest of short sample sizes. He hit very well for almost 3 full months before getting hurt. If he goes back to hitting well again then I don't see how you could honestly argue he wouldn't be a valuable addition to this team's outfield depth.


#346 SwainZag

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:49 PM

 

I don't think 11 games after returning from a long DL stint is really the best time to be making judgements about a player. He had a 5-game run in there that was actually pretty good, and now a 5-game run that isn't. That's the shortest of short sample sizes. He hit very well for almost 3 full months before getting hurt. If he goes back to hitting well again then I don't see how you could honestly argue he wouldn't be a valuable addition to this team's outfield depth.

 

I don't recalling saying that he wouldn't be valuable to this team's outfield depth. Just a simple update of this thread.


#347 Taildragger8791

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:07 PM

 

I don't recalling saying that he wouldn't be valuable to this team's outfield depth. Just a simple update of this thread.

 

Sure didn't seem like a simple update. For some reason you were asking a leading question based on an insignificantly short sample size to make a point that you think Hicks stinks again. Came off like a cheap shot.

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#348 jkcarew

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:10 PM

 

I don't think 11 games after returning from a long DL stint is really the best time to be making judgements about a player. He had a 5-game run in there that was actually pretty good, and now a 5-game run that isn't. That's the shortest of short sample sizes. He hit very well for almost 3 full months before getting hurt. If he goes back to hitting well again then I don't see how you could honestly argue he wouldn't be a valuable addition to this team's outfield depth.

It's probably fair to say that the Rosario-Hicks comparison has become much more debatable than it appeared in June.Meanwhile, I think we can all agree that, based on player value, this was an atrocious trade.Sometimes the swing and miss on value projection is so complete that whatever other justifications/considerations existed, they don't matter.It was just a god awful trade.

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#349 SwainZag

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:12 PM

 

Sure didn't seem like a simple update. For some reason you were asking a leading question based on an insignificantly short sample size to make a point that you think Hicks stinks again. Came off like a cheap shot.

 

It was more of a point of...it's a long season, let's not anoint Hicks the next HOF inductee before the end of June.  But take it how you want.  


#350 mickeymental

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:31 PM

at this point maybe the real comparison should be hicks versus gabriel moya, who the twins got for jrm. moya, according to baseball reference, is a 22-year-old lefty who has pitched in 43 aa games this year. in 52.2 innings, he's given up 27 hits with 82 strikeouts, 14 walks and a 0.85 era.
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#351 Taildragger8791

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:38 PM

 

It was more of a point of...it's a long season, let's not anoint Hicks the next HOF inductee before the end of June.  But take it how you want.  

 

Nobody suggested anything close to HoF, and throwing out strawman points like that doesn't contribute anything. You're arguing against your own made-up hyperbolic statement.

 

What I saw was posters frustrated that Hicks finally seemed to turn a corner  and become a valuable baseball player while our trade return was an instant objective failure. Those frustrations were exacerbated by the fact that we didn't have a single outfielder hitting well over the first couple months, and there were no competent options to fill in. Kepler still isn't hitting much. Hicks would be a pretty decent piece to fall back on.

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#352 SwainZag

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:52 PM

 

Nobody suggested anything close to HoF, and throwing out strawman points like that doesn't contribute anything. You're arguing against your own made-up hyperbolic statement.

 

What I saw was posters frustrated that Hicks finally seemed to turn a corner  and become a valuable baseball player while our trade return was an instant objective failure. Those frustrations were exacerbated by the fact that we didn't have a single outfielder hitting well over the first couple months, and there were no competent options to fill in. Kepler still isn't hitting much. Hicks would be a pretty decent piece to fall back on.

 

It was obvious tongue-in-cheek to the amount of over reactionary posts that came early in the season regarding Hicks.  Kepler has a lot more success at the same age and similar playing than Hicks.  


#353 Taildragger8791

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 01:59 PM

 

It was obvious tongue-in-cheek to the amount of over reactionary posts that came early in the season regarding Hicks.  Kepler has a lot more success at the same age and similar playing than Hicks.  

 

That wasn't my point about Kepler. I think he'll ultimately be fine but he's struggling quite a bit this year and there aren't any good options to give him a break or pinch hit for him.


#354 Dr. Evil

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 02:15 PM

Eighteen pages largely ripping the Twins and praising Hicks. I think it is reasonable to accept a little heat in the other direction by Swainzag. When I read the post I laughed. I never liked Hicks and I'm glad he is no longer here. Good stuff Swain!!!!

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#355 SwainZag

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 02:44 PM

 

Eighteen pages largely ripping the Twins and praising Hicks. I think it is reasonable to accept a little heat in the other direction by Swainzag. When I read the post I laughed. I never liked Hicks and I'm glad he is no longer here. Good stuff Swain!!!!

 

The point of my post wasn't to bash Hicks.  I was always a fan of Hicks, but I didn't believe the Hicks we saw in April-June was some revelation of Hicks as a brand new player.  A lot of people predicted Hicks would fall off by the end of the season and it started in June and has continued after he came back from the DL.  

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#356 Dr. Evil

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 02:51 PM

No, I didn't think you were bashing Hicks.

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#357 spycake

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Posted 23 August 2017 - 01:24 PM

 

Hicks has struggled pretty bad since coming off the DL to the tune of .156/.269/.333 in 45 AB.

And sure enough, Hicks hits a dinger last night!  His OPS since coming off the DL jumped 65 points last night alone.  His isolated power since his DL trip is .216 and his "isolated discipline" (OBP-AVG) is .100.  K rate pretty much in line with his season average too.

 

Is it your position that his .167 BABIP over the last 12 games is particularly meaningful?

 

I think it's best just to keep an eye on his season numbers and not get too distracted by tiny samples.  He's having a good year for NY, and they are still starting him in CF and batting him 2nd every day in a pennant race.

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#358 spycake

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Posted 23 August 2017 - 01:34 PM

 

Season line down to .265/.375/.482/.857

 

To quote Dave from June, "If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place."

 

For Comparison:  Rosario: .300/.340/.505/.845

 

Is this still the case?

I won't defend anything Dave says :)

 

But just for fun, note that Hicks is still at a 131 wRC+ for the season. Rosario is at 121.  That OBP advantage outpaces the AVG advantage.

 

On defense, neither DRS (-8) or UZR (-5) like Rosario this season. Not sure if it is some odd effect of Buxton in CF?  Hicks is at +6 and +13 by the two systems, respectively.  That and positional adjustment fuel a large WAR advantage for Hicks now too.


#359 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 23 August 2017 - 02:09 PM

Pretty bad trade by the former FO. I understand that we needed catching but they really misjudged the talent level of Murphy or maybe it was Hicks. The new FO may have evened the scales by getting Moya, but that remains to be seen. yet another reason to like the new FO better. 

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#360 birdwatcher

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Posted 23 August 2017 - 02:55 PM

Man alive, 360 comments. I recall the earliest ones, where those who disliked the trade cited an undervaluation of Hicks, or giving up to soon, or an overvaluation of Murphy, maybe both, but basically a reasoned argument that it was an ill-advised trade. I think everyone can now conclude that those commenters had it right.

 

I don't see the relevance of a comparison of Hicks and Rosario if it isn't a retrospective argument that trading Hicks created another shortage (my own view). The majority opinion around here on both those guys, until the start of this season for Hicks and until this year's All Star break for Rosario, was that both were essentially 4th outfielders, and the only real question about either of them was if they were any good as 4th outfielders.

 

And I agree that the current FO may have salvaged something in acquiring Moya. We'll see. At least THAT trade was from surplus of sorts, although catchers are about the weirdest asset class in the game (Butera, Herrmann, John Hicks, Fryer, etc all still getting roster spots and National fans calling foe Wilson Ramos's head).