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Can you spot an early trend?

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#1 twinssporto

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 09:23 PM

paine-arthur-sotg-0329-21.png?quality=90

 

 

Santana pitched a great baseball game today!  I believe it marks the start of a real trend of winning for this team.  Let me explain:  Our offense is ranked 5th in the American League with 46 runs scored; and I don't even think we're hitting all that great right now.  We are ranked #2 pitching in the A.L. with a team ERA of 2.69. Defensively, the Twins are ranked #3 with only 3 errors.  Our team also has a .636 win percentage on April 15th.  Short sample size?  Absolutely.  A trend in the right direction? Absolutely.  Worst to first this year?  I've seen it happen before.

 

I watch a lot of baseball, mostly the Minnesota Twins.  I have followed this team closely for over 30 years.  I'm not a bandwagon fan nor am I a hopeless optimistic.  However, based on what I am seeing now the similarities to some of our other high caliber teams in the past is intriguing.

 

Consider this:  Buxton WILL start hitting again.  Mauer will start hitting too. Berrios and Wimmers look like they have something to prove in AAA.  The bullpen looks motivated too.  Certainly the Manager has something to prove this year along with the new front office staff.  Whether your a pessimist or not; there are a lot of positives to consider.  

 

Will the Twins make the playoffs this year?  I don't know.  I will say this though:  I wouldn't bet against this team.  We have a lot of young players and decent veterans that aren't intimidated by early season predictions.  

 

Sometimes ignorance of your limitations and a little confidence is all you need to be the next great champion.  I love the youth on this team and the veterans around them.  Great team chemistry can do some amazing things in business, baseball and bands.

 

To all the folks out there that made their Las Vegas sports book bets on the Twins this year...hold on to those tickets!  

 

 

  • ChiTownTwinsFan, USAFChief, glunn and 9 others like this

On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#2 Han Joelo

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 09:31 PM

Giddyup, even though I don't quite understand the graph.

#3 theBOMisthebomb

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 09:43 PM

All aboard!

#4 TheLeviathan

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 10:03 PM

I'm not convinced that Mauer is going to start hitting.  We may be seeing the end of Mauer as a functional offensive player.

 

Buxton?  I'm worried.  There are so many things wrong with his approach at the plate and that's so hard to fix at this level.  

 

But yeah, it's nice to see this team doing so many things well day to day.

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#5 twinssporto

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 10:27 PM

 

Giddyup, even though I don't quite understand the graph.

The graph is just eye candy.  Tried to find something that looked better for baseball trends but nothing really existed.  

Edited by twinssporto, 15 April 2017 - 10:30 PM.

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On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#6 Danchat

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 10:42 PM

I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but this team has been pretty healthy so far. Once the injuries hit, we'll see how this team responds. What happens if Sano misses a couple months and Escobar has to start there? What happens if E. Santana and Santiago go down with multi-week injuries at the same time? Who starts? It'll depend on situations like this.

 

Let's not forget the Vikings started out 5-0... and then the injuries hit.

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#7 twinssporto

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 10:51 PM

 

I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but this team has been pretty healthy so far. Once the injuries hit, we'll see how this team responds. What happens if Sano misses a couple months and Escobar has to start there? What happens if E. Santana and Santiago go down with multi-week injuries at the same time? Who starts? It'll depend on situations like this.

 

Let's not forget the Vikings started out 5-0... and then the injuries hit.

Totally agree.  Things can always change.  The main point is we are going in the right direction.  I'd rather be in the spot we are now versus 0-9 and having injuries too.  We saw that last year.  

 

You also bring up a great point.  The championship level teams/playoff teams have very few injuries and if they suffer a few they have capable people to back them up.  I'd love to see if any Sabermetric types have done studies on injuries and winning percentages, etc.  I'm sure there a some good stats on that scenario.  As you said, Vikings are a good example.

On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#8 USAFChief

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 11:16 PM

The graph is just eye candy.  


You're doing it wrong.
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I am not the paranoid you're looking for.


#9 Badsmerf

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 11:53 PM

April is only half over... This team isn't built to win many games. Regardless of the nice start, it takes a lot to be over 500, and I just don't see it happening this year. There are certainly encouraging signs so far.
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#10 USAFChief

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 12:09 AM

I felt coming out of spring training that there was a very good chance the Twins could be WC contenders this year. The pitching might need to overperform, but the everyday lineup is either good enough for that, or they might never be.
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I am not the paranoid you're looking for.


#11 ScrapTheNickname

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 12:50 AM

The Twins aren't hitting at all, yet they're 7-4. The pitching has been out of this world, and will come back to earth. Hopefully, the rise of our hitting will not coincide with the fall of our pitching. On another note, it's time to bring up Park or Vargas to ramp the offense up. Damn it.

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#12 KirbyDome89

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 02:28 AM

They've played 11 games so far right? Ok...

 

I'm enjoying the start but talk about the WS or playoffs is getting a little carried away IMO. A record even close to .500 would be a major step for this team. 

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#13 killertwinfan

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 02:52 AM

We are blessed with a good start, period.  This team could end up over .500 and even make the playoffs. Or,  things could go horribly wrong and they play like they did in 103 loss debacle we witnessed last year. I am thankful and purchased MLB extra innings so I can watch games.  Have fun with it while it lasts, (which is hopefully all season) but don't expect it.  The trends, great pitching, poor hitting (especially with RISP), great defense and a lot of gifts.  None of it will continue at the current pace. It will be interesting to see how the organization responds. 

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#14 killertwinfan

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 02:55 AM

BTW, stick a fork in Mauer. He is done.  


#15 beckmt

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 02:56 AM

It is early, but defense has played a big role in this.Also, the pitching is better, but making the plays may well have it looking better than it is.I am hoping the team plays meaningful games in September, that will require saying around .500.That could be realistic. 

Construction of this team is interesting.It seems to be built more on onbase tendencies than anything else, and that seems to be working if the Twins can get a key hit or two.There is hope, but I for one am more in a wait and see mode.


#16 Blake

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 06:34 AM

Reasons for optimism:

 

The outfield play has been stellar.

 

The infield has been solid with flashes of brilliance.

 

The bullpen has been solid.

 

Starting pitching has been solid.

 

There is triple A depth that has MLB experience.

 

It is not last year.

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#17 amjgt

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 06:44 AM

Since most of the games have been during the work day, I haven't seen as many as I'd like, but here's my impression of the hitting...

We aren't hitting like we would expect, but the hits we are getting are bunched together with walks. So individual players are underachieving as a whole, but the team is overacheiving
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#18 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 07:03 AM

 

BTW, stick a fork in Mauer. He is done.  

 

I think this only works coming from DaveW... speaking of which, I think he's due for this post :)

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#19 Jham

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 07:13 AM

I didn't really get the doom and gloom either given that Buxton, Sano, and Kepler are entering their primes. The pitching staff was awful last year, but mostly good the year before with Berrios hanging out waiting to contribute.

I will say, Polanco and Sano look serviceable. That's usually not a fluke. The entire team looks more patient. I don't know is that's an emphasis with the new regime, but it looks good so far. The pen has looked good in the past, then been overworked. I'm not sure about bull pen depth and overall talent. If Chargios and Perk and Burdi and/or Jay can add something by mid summer, and Duffy can be dominant, we may have something.
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#20 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 07:58 AM

 

I didn't really get the doom and gloom either given that Buxton, Sano, and Kepler are entering their primes. The pitching staff was awful last year, but mostly good the year before with Berrios hanging out waiting to contribute.

I will say, Polanco and Sano look serviceable. That's usually not a fluke. The entire team looks more patient. I don't know is that's an emphasis with the new regime, but it looks good so far. The pen has looked good in the past, then been overworked. I'm not sure about bull pen depth and overall talent. If Chargios and Perk and Burdi and/or Jay can add something by mid summer, and Duffy can be dominant, we may have something.

Not to mention Baxendale, Hildenberger and Busenitz, all of whom are sporting pretty good WHIPs. O'Rourke will be coming off the DL soon. I believe our pen is going experience some changes this year.
There is NO reason to keep under-performing veterans.

 

The team is doing well in spite of an odd roster configuration. I am really curious to see what they are going to do with the roster this season. Very strange.

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