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Article: 2017 Twins Player Predictions: Brian Dozier

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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:27 AM

28 home runs, about a 337 OBP.

 

Not traded, because having a 2B at the end of his contract is somehow more important to a bad team than taking a chance on prospects. Heck, I predict he's signed to an extension, and they never trade him, just like Perkins. 

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#22 Loosey

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 09:57 AM

I'm guessing we see an increase in OBP a decrease in HR but BA slightly above his career average.  

 

I'll go with:  .260/.350/.490 (.840) 31 HR


#23 mickeymental

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:16 AM

 

That always sounds good... 

well, that's why i said it! not what i expect but what i'd like. (plus, stranger thanks have happened ...)


#24 Jham

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:25 AM

Dozier started last season asleep. He was maybe the best player in the league after that. If he spent less time building houses this off-season, he should be able to tear it up this season. I Think he'll flirt with mvp for most of the season before hitting the wall. .277/.389/.515 39hr 110 scored 90 driven in. Hits 3rd for the all star team with a .315 avg and 24 hr at the break.

Edited by Jham, 29 March 2017 - 10:34 AM.

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#25 hybridbear

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:54 AM

I'm much more pessimistic. I expect significant regression & huge disappointment across Twins Territory that he wasn't traded. I expect a batting average of about .250 and less than 30 HRs. I hope it's not the case, but MN sports fans aren't allowed to have anything nice so I don't want to get my hopes up... :(

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#26 sthpstm

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:58 AM

This is probably realistic, though disappointing.
I am curious why you think his walk rate will drop to the lowest rate since his rookie year.

#27 spycake

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 11:37 AM

 

He's signed for two more years, but if he continues to produce, there's no reason that the Twins wouldn't extend him. I'm not saying they will, but it is certainly possible.

But at this point, the Twins will pretty much have to pay free agent market rate to extend him.  Especially if he continues to produce.

 

They could actually trade him, collect the prospect(s), and then re-sign him after 2018 if they are willing to pay the price to extend him.  Whatever they might save in an extension now (assuming he'd be willing at all to accept a discount, which is not clear), they'd probably more than make up in the prospects acquired and in the extra ~2 years to evaluate Dozier.

Edited by spycake, 29 March 2017 - 11:40 AM.


#28 Ryan Atkins

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 11:53 AM

 

Brian Dozier: 574 at-bats, .261/.328/.458 (.786), 37 doubles, 2 triples, 24 home runs.

 

I think your prediction is spot on and has a very good chance at realization.

 

My hope is that his overall hitting continues to improve slightly while the HRs drop just a bit. I'll go with:

 

.270 BA, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 25 SB, 102 R

 

I would like to see him steal more bases. With Molitor as MGR, I have been surprised by how poorly this team runs the bases. It is perhaps a skill you just can't teach. But Dozier (83% over the last 2 years) has been good, just not frequent enough.

 

Dozier leading off with Mauer or Grossman (both of whom can work a count) batting 2nd should allow for a few more SBs.


#29 tobi0040

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 11:00 AM

The guy puts up nearly a 1.000 OPS over 115 games and the Twins tell him to go the other way more.

Ok. Got it.

#30 Doomtints

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 02:57 PM

 

PREDICTIONS

Brian Dozier: 574 at-bats, .261/.328/.458 (.786), 37 doubles, 2 triples, 24 home runs.
 

 

.240 - .250 / .310 - .325 / .425 - .450

25 HR, 33 2B, 3 3B


#31 TheLeviathan

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 04:16 PM

I think that's pretty damn close.  Anyone who thinks the Dozier of the last three months will now just magically do that for 6 months hasn't paid much attention to him the last few years.

 

Let's just hope pumpkin Dozier shows up after the deadline, but I really fear the worst with this.  I hope I'm wrong.


#32 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 05:02 PM

I think that's pretty damn close. Anyone who thinks the Dozier of the last three months will now just magically do that for 6 months hasn't paid much attention to him the last few years.

Let's just hope pumpkin Dozier shows up after the deadline, but I really fear the worst with this. I hope I'm wrong.

He's a streaky hitter, for sure... which is why I predicted 32 homers for him. If you put a gun to my head, I'd probably predict 28-32.

On the plus side for Dozier, his power has increased every year he's been in the league. 24 homers seems a bit low to me, though it's certainly possible.

But no way am I predicting 40 again. I hope it happens but I'm not banking on it.
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#33 TheLeviathan

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 06:40 PM

 

He's a streaky hitter, for sure... which is why I predicted 32 homers for him. If you put a gun to my head, I'd probably predict 28-32.

On the plus side for Dozier, his power has increased every year he's been in the league. 24 homers seems a bit low to me, though it's certainly possible.

But no way am I predicting 40 again. I hope it happens but I'm not banking on it.

 

Honestly, with how erratic he is, anything from 20 to 40 is defensible.  But I'm a pessimist about him, but that may just be because I fear he'll binge again and then get a totally awful contract extension.

 

I think I need more time away from Terry Ryan to center myself.


#34 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 08:24 PM

Honestly, with how erratic he is, anything from 20 to 40 is defensible. But I'm a pessimist about him, but that may just be because I fear he'll binge again and then get a totally awful contract extension.

I think I need more time away from Terry Ryan to center myself.

Fair enough. You've been skeptical of Dozier for years. Not saying that as proof of anything, just a reality.

#35 TheLeviathan

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 09:12 PM

 

Fair enough. You've been skeptical of Dozier for years. Not saying that as proof of anything, just a reality.

 

Yup, I own that.  And sometimes he vindicates me and sometimes he makes it valid.

 

I worry we'll wish we could have anything close to DeLeon for him by July.


#36 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 31 March 2017 - 07:05 AM

Yup, I own that. And sometimes he vindicates me and sometimes he makes it valid.

I worry we'll wish we could have anything close to DeLeon for him by July.

So do I but I can't fault the Twins for not saying yes to that trade. They were in an unfortunate spot. Hopefully at this year's deadline, there is more than ONE team looking for a second baseman.
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#37 sploorp

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Posted 01 April 2017 - 06:58 PM

Dozier's numbers have improved each year in spite of large portions of each season where he slumped badly.  At 29 I'd hardly call him over the hill and beginning his decline into geezerdom.  I'm also not buying into the notion that he'll decline because he's an infielder and infielders just don't hit 42 homers.  To those posters I ask, "what if the team moved him to 3rd base or the outfield instead of 2nd?"  Would you be making different predictions because outfielders and 3rd basemen naturally hit more homers then middle infielders and it's expected?

 

I say Dozier is an outfielder or 3rd baseman trapped in a middle infielder's body.  He's 29 and healthy and I think his natural decline is still a few years off.  I've also heard him talk about batters needing to figure out what kind of hitter they are and work towards that.  He's already figured that out: he's a pull hitter with pop and that's what he keeps working to perfect.  I have no idea why people keep thinking he's suddenly going to start lining balls into the gap for doubles.

 

I say he keeps hitting the same way he has been all along.  And based on the fact that he has gotten better in each season he plays, I see no reason why he can't hit another 40 plus taters while hitting around .250 or so.

 

My biggest question is why the team keeps batting him lead off.  He should be farther back where his power could translate into more RBIs.  Since it's looking like the team is making the Grossman their regular DH, why not make him the lead off hitter too?  If Buxton's going to be batting 3rd, it makes much more sense than Dozier.


#38 Jham

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 10:13 PM

Some pretty close guesses in there with a few weeks to go.  I was too optimistic.  He started slow... again!!  Finish like last year and we'll see you in October.

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#39 snepp

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 11:16 PM

 

I'm guessing we see an increase in OBP a decrease in HR but BA slightly above his career average.  

 

I'll go with:  .260/.350/.490 (.840) 31 HR

 

If the season ended today, you would be the champion of all champions.

 

.260/.348/.481 (.829) 29 HR

 

 

(hopefully he hits waaaaaaay more HR's the rest of the way though)


#40 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 02:47 AM

If the season ended today, you would be the champion of all champions.

.260/.348/.481 (.829) 29 HR


(hopefully he hits waaaaaaay more HR's the rest of the way though)

Holy **** my prediction is on track to be really close.

.260/.340/.480 32 HR
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