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Article: Central Intelligence: Chicago White Sox

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#21 ThejacKmp

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 11:17 AM

 

This just shows, imo, what an awful job they did drafting and developing the end of Ryan's first term....and no, I'm not blaming RYAN, I'm talking about the entire organization there.

 

Willingham, imo, isn't hindsight. Many pushed for him to be dealt, and I recall reading on mlbtraderumors that the Twins wouldn't because "we aren't a farm team for others teams" or something like that. Or maybe I dreamed that, but I think not....

 

Perkins was a classic no brainer move, they didn't make. I still have no idea why.

 

Perkins was (along with Mauer) the face of the Twins at the time. They'd just moved into a new stadium and his was an incredibly team-friendly contract. I think they didn't want to trade a guy like him. I think it's dumb (his contract and performance at the time represent the only really elite trade target the Twins have had) but I imagine those played a factor. Sucks that they didn't.

 

Willingham is more complicated. I always had the impression that the "farm team for others" thing was more the public comment after the Twins found a lukewarm market for Willingham. He hit a ton of homers but in a new stadium, a lot of people were convinced that it was a bit of a mirage. When you factor in his godawful defense and age, I think the offers were probably pretty low and the Twins decided to let him play out another year and see if that improved things. He promptly fell off a cliff and became useless. I have a hard time blaming the Twins too hard for that one - the deals we make in our head are not always there in reality. Willingham was the biggest contract in Twins history and he seemed perfect for Target Field so hoping for an increase in value wasn't crazy.

 

100% agreed on not having good players being the issue. The Twins haven't been able to deal for elite prospects because they haven't had them. Teams like the White Sox and Tigers have the elite players they can trade (but face the problem of not wanting to trade them because they are elite).

 

P.S. I forgot to include Span and Revere before though. Those were solid deals for the Twins, even if Meyer never worked out and May has been up and down. I wish we'd seen more of that but again, besides Perkins the Twins never had the guys to do the Span/Revere type deals.

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#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 11:24 AM

 

Willingham is more complicated. I always had the impression that the "farm team for others" thing was more the public comment after the Twins found a lukewarm market for Willingham. He hit a ton of homers but in a new stadium, a lot of people were convinced that it was a bit of a mirage. When you factor in his godawful defense and age, I think the offers were probably pretty low and the Twins decided to let him play out another year and see if that improved things. He promptly fell off a cliff and became useless. I have a hard time blaming the Twins too hard for that one - the deals we make in our head are not always there in reality. Willingham was the biggest contract in Twins history and he seemed perfect for Target Field so hoping for an increase in value wasn't crazy.

I think this is spot-on. Could the Twins have gotten something for Willingham? Sure.

 

But what was on the table? When Willingham peaked, there were loads of questions about his expected performance going forward. On top of that, look at what has happened to bat-first players over the past half decade. They're signing deals that are far lower than what they received in previous years. The game has moved away from valuing them at the level they were once valued.

 

Look at Edwin Encarnacion. The guy gets MVP votes almost every season, routinely posts a .900 OPS, and signed a 3/$60m deal this offseason. Kendrys Morales signed for just 3/$33m and the Blue Jays probably have some buyer's remorse over that deal after seeing what Encarnacion fetched on the market.


#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 11:27 AM

I'm not saying they could have gotten anything, my comment was that if Nunez can fetch a legit SP, that I'm surprised they couldn't get anything for anyone (other than Span and Revere). I had forgotten about Milone, frankly. No idea what Willingham would have fetched. Perkins is the only sure fire miss on the list.

 

On topic:

The Sox could be really good fast, if the pitchers they got from WAS work out, and they can finally find a few hitters. But then, that's true of most teams (if it all works out, it would make them good).

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#24 ThejacKmp

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 12:18 PM

 

I'm not saying they could have gotten anything, my comment was that if Nunez can fetch a legit SP, that I'm surprised they couldn't get anything for anyone (other than Span and Revere). I had forgotten about Milone, frankly. No idea what Willingham would have fetched. Perkins is the only sure fire miss on the list.

 

On topic:

The Sox could be really good fast, if the pitchers they got from WAS work out, and they can finally find a few hitters. But then, that's true of most teams (if it all works out, it would make them good).

 

Yeah, I think the real concepts to look at are whether the Twins traded high and whether they had a good reason to wait/make a deal. 

 

With Willingham, they certainly didn't trade high but I think you can make a reasonable case for waiting. Another half season and he might have been an impact deadline player, that seems a gamble worth taking. They definitely sold high on Revere and relatively high on Span. Those were smart moves I wish weren't so infrequent. Nunez is really the only other one. Perkins is the opposite, they waited and waited for no good baseball reason (business reasons aside) and the market fell out from under them.

 

The Twins have done a reasonably good time on the "dumping a rental player" type of deal (Buttera trade, Liriano trade, Fuld trade) which speaks to some good scouting. TR just wasn't particularly aggressive with wheeling and dealing big name players.

 

It'll be interesting to see if the new regime is more prolific in trading players. It made no sense to do that this offseason as they got used to the team but I think we'll have a better idea this time next year as we see what they do with Dozier, Hughes, Gibson, Santiago, Santana and various bullpen pieces.

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#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 12:21 PM

 

I'm not saying they could have gotten anything, my comment was that if Nunez can fetch a legit SP, that I'm surprised they couldn't get anything for anyone (other than Span and Revere). I had forgotten about Milone, frankly. No idea what Willingham would have fetched. Perkins is the only sure fire miss on the list.

Willingham was a gamble, one that didn't pan out for the Twins.

 

In retrospect, they should have traded him for whatever they could get (and many here lobbied that position). But had Willingham blasted another 15+ homers at the deadline the following season, his value would have been higher.

 

I wish they would have traded him but it's not the most egregious error the front office made during that time span. That's all I'm saying, really.


#26 TheLeviathan

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 12:46 PM

I'm going to predict the Twins finish ahead of the Sox, but I would be far short of shocked to find out the Sox finish ahead of us in the end.  

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#27 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 01:15 PM

 

I'm going to predict the Twins finish ahead of the Sox, but I would be far short of shocked to find out the Sox finish ahead of us in the end.  

Yeah, that's why I put the Sox at 70-74 wins and the Twins at 71-75. I give the Twins a microscopic advantage.

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#28 gil4

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 01:18 PM

 

I'm not sure anyone has lamented the Twins not having a firesale. Who was there to trade? Outside of maybe Santana and for sure Dozier, the Twins haven't had any good players to trade over the past 7 years or so. They've moved some relievers when it made sense to but that's not a fire sale. They had no market for Dozier so that hasn't been an option. Maybe you say trade Santana but he'll likely have as much value at the deadline this year.

I agree completely, and it was that bad the whole time.

 

The Twins were competing through 2010. When the wheels came off in 2011, there weren't many pieces to be salvaged. Pavano, Baker, and Morneau were hurt. Had Kubel left already? Mauer was on a no-trade contract. Thome was old. Willingham was old and regressed massively after his good year. Hardy was traded for Hoey. There just was no Eaton or Sale to build a fire sale around.


#29 Dave The Dastardly

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 05:22 PM

Here's my prediction: The Twinkies come out of the gate like a three-legged horse. They can't pitch, can't field and can't hit. But they're pretty good at marbles. By July the buzzards are circling. The Front Office fires Molly to save him from a lynching and their own necks from the dreaded "vote of confidence" from the owner. Dougie rides in to the rescue and gets carte blanche (that's French; means he can do whatever the hell he wants). Dougie demands solid baseball from every player and soon there's more players in the dog house than in the dugout. Veterans find themselves on the trade market and all those hot prospects languishing in the minors find themselves on the Big Club. They struggle through July, the Twinkies are paying homeless people with free hot dogs to take tickets and cheer every now and then. Dick and Bert spend gametime regaling us about that game back in 1987 when Herbie and Kirby hit back-to-back homers; it was a Tuesday. Dick remembers it well because he spilled mustard on his microphone in the excitement. Bert remembers it because he said WTF on the air and got a 1 week suspension.

 

Dougie contemplates suicide, but instead opts for beating up the opposing manager during the pre-game.

 

Then, just when all Minnesotans are traveling incognito (that's Italian - in this case it means no one takes their snowshoes with them) whenever they leave the state, the prospects begin to gel, like... jell-o. The young pitchers start throwing complete game shut-outs, the batters start hitting above the Mendoza line and are shooting line drives off the wall (the outfield wall - not Trump's wall) and the fielders start fielding like they're gloves are made of velcro - or maybe got some of that black pine tar in the glove pocket. Anyway, the North Pole (that's Dougie) has the kids playing like real major league baseball players and they're whipping butt like Lash Larue (you gotta way back in time for that one).

 

And all of a sudden, just like that, The Twinks make the playoffs and the whole damn state drags their Homer Hankies out of mothballs, the bandwagons are overloaded and fans start leaving flowers on Halsey Hall's grave.

 

That's when I wake up. Gotta lay off that medicinal marijuana.

 

Is it summer yet?

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#30 mikelink45

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Posted 27 March 2017 - 05:23 PM

Like the Twins, the Sox have to be hoping that the prospects develop into players.  That is not a sure thing, but they got variety of players in the field and on the mound and seem to have a plan in play.  Right now the Twins have half a plan - bats.