Posted 07 August 2012 - 02:11 PM
It is definitely Trout's to lose. At his rate of PA's, he will qualify in 22 games. Once he qualifies, he will need to play a lot and hit (relatively) poorly to come down much. If he plays all remaining games and hits .300 the rest of the way, he will end up at .330.
For Mauer to beat .330, he will have to hit .355 the rest of the way (assuming he plays 48 of remaining 53 games with current AB/G rate). Obviously he is very capable of that and more. For Revere to top .330, he would have to maintain what he is doing.
If the likelihood of Trout hitting .300 or less the rest of the way is 25% (pulled out of my butt) and the likelihood of Mauer hitting .355 or Revere hitting .331 is also 25% (pulled from same place), then Mauer or Revere have about a 6.3% chance of overtaking Trout.
Stranger things have happened though. We know Mauer could hit .400 the rest of the way and (we suspect) Trout could hit .250. If that happens, Mauer hits .346 for the season and Trout ends up at .312.