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Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0

brian dozier joe mauer jose berrios miguel sano byron buxton
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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 11:11 AM

 

Danny Santana 2017 WAR: Over/Under 0.0?

 

Under, assuming he plays more than 10 games. Under.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#22 mikelink45

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 12:11 PM

My concern is the veteran factor - one I cannot accept.  As I wrote in another forum - we not only have a number of veterans around on the mound, at 1st, at 2nd, we have veteran coaches, more than ever before, and three hang around and be a veteran presence guys in Hawkins, Cuddyer, and Hunter.  We do not need more clogging the roster.  Breslow has not looked good.  Let him go.  Get on with the young players.  We need players to be ready in the next few years, Breslow is going to flame out and not be there when a good pitcher is needed. Vargas vs. Park is interesting and I have to think that Park is putting on a good show to be kept and I think Molitor would lean towards him.  I do not care about Santana at this point, the under performing vets are more of a concern.  Get the first 24 right then we can worry about Santana.

 

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#23 Jaykay

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 12:51 PM

 

6460472.jpg

 

(I couldn't resist).

 

You win. 

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#24 Ryan Atkins

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 12:53 PM

This strikes me as a rather "safe" roster, nothing unexpected. I like what I've seen from Matt Hague this Spring, but I don't think there is any hope for him save for an injury.

 

I hope that management decides to take at least one gamble. And for me, that gamble would be to put Adalberto Mejia into the rotation for at least 5 starts.

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#25 Halsey Hall

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 01:30 PM

I see Park as the dh and Vargas either being released or back at AAA.I think Mejia has a real good shot at the rotation.The rest looks likely.

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he gone!


#26 Lee-The-Twins-Fan

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 02:15 PM

I think there'll be several differences when the team goes north:

• Haley will be in the bullpen, and Chargois will be at AAA.

• Mejia is the fifth starter, over Vogelsong and Berrios.

• Park will be DH/1B; Vargas at AAA.

• Adrianza and Escobar will be the backup infielders.

• Danny Santana will be released or sent down. Grossman will be the fourth OF.

 

I do agree that Gimenez will be the backup catcher, and could play in the outfield as well. What they do with Danny Santana is, in my mind, the biggest question mark. He's been hitting well this spring, but really doesn't have a position, and he doesn't have the power to be a DH. But he's been hitting real well, and in some crucial spots, so they might give him a chance. But I'd hate to lose Adrianza.

 

 

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#27 Brandon

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 02:33 PM

I think Tonkin and Haley over Chargois and Duffey to start the season. Also i think its a toss up on Santana or that defensive specialist guy

#28 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 03:15 PM

You need to be careful bringing too many guys north for their veteran leadership.
There are only 25 roster spots, at some point there aren't enough young guys around to mentor.
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#29 Deduno Abides

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 03:33 PM

Giminez may simply be better than Murphy and Garver.


Mejia and Berrios for #4 and #5, over Vogelsong and Santiago. If V & S combine for 2.0 WAR, that will be remarkable. Either Mejia or Berrios could each have 2.0 WAR. The team isn't going anywhere and both have done what they need to do in AAA. It's time to see what kind of mentoring Castro and Neil Smith can do.


Just say no to DanSan. Great athlete, yes, but. . . just no. Outright him and see if anyone wants him.


Park? Why not? Let's see what he can do. If he looks bad on May 31, it's Vargas time.


No Justin Haley. He's going to be 26 in a few months and he might also be the 26th best pitcher in the organization. He's not going to get a lot better. If he weren't a $50,000 Rule 5 pick, there'd be no chance he'd make the majors. It will be sad if that $50,000 (actually, $25,000 after the refund) vaults him over more qualified pitchers.


Is it me, or does anyone else think "veteran leadership" is a euphemism for management saying either "I don't want to be held responsible if we lose a lot while young players take their lumps" or "I don't think the young players are as good as we've been saying for the past few years"?
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If I had to do the same again, I would, my friend, Fernando!

#30 wsnydes

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 03:43 PM

 

I thought we fixed the glitch in regards to D Santana. 

 

MiltonOfficeSpace_thumb.jpg

Apparently he's only been banished to Storage Room B...

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If only there were Mulligans in baseball.


#31 caninatl04

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 03:50 PM

 

I see Park as the dh and Vargas either being released or back at AAA.I think Mejia has a real good shot at the rotation.The rest looks likely.

Maybe I'm adding 2 plus 2 and getting 7, but:

  • Park's problem last year started with trying to catch up to MLB fast balls.
  • As we hear from reports from Twins pitchers, they are not up to opening day velocities.So, I assume this may be true for other clubs as well.
  • Maybe Park's stellar states are against these spring training (lower) velocities.

#32 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 03:57 PM

I'm curious why people are willing to give Gibson a guaranteed spot in the rotation but think Santiago should be removed.

 

I think Gibson has a slightly higher chance of being above average but when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Santiago have a better season (as low as that bar may be for both of them).

 

They're basically the same age and Santiago has a longer, better track record.

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#33 Thrylos

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 04:05 PM

I took a shot at my thoughts on who will be the 25 whom the Twins will call upon, yesterday, here.  

 

As far as position players we have the same with the exception that I have Park over Vargas.Vargas has not seen much game time this Spring and Park has been playing very well. Not necessarily my personal preference, but I think that the Twins will bring Santana up North over both Arianza and Bengie Gonzalez (Gonzalez a dark horse here, but has options).I think that the Stubbs train passed.

 

I got the pitching slightly different as well. I just cannot see how Hector Santiago will be ready to start games when he pitched max 2-2/3 innings and even pitched with 2 days rest.I have him in the pen over Duffey (who has options) with both Berios and Mejia making the rotation.The only other difference is that I have Haley over Chargois in the pen.I think that the Twins like Haley enough to keep him and I don't see them working out a trade with the Red Sox.

 

Other than these few differences, it is pretty close.

Edited by Thrylos, 20 March 2017 - 04:06 PM.

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#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 04:06 PM

 

I'm curious why people are willing to give Gibson a guaranteed spot in the rotation but think Santiago should be removed.

 

I think Gibson has a slightly higher chance of being above average but when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Santiago have a better season (as low as that bar may be for both of them).

 

They're basically the same age and Santiago has a longer, better track record.

 

for me, the Twins want more control and strike throwing. That doesn't work for Santiago, he appears to be wildly effective.....so, if they are really going all in on this "control or don't pitch" thing, I have concerns. But, i'd pencil them both in, now that both are signed. 

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#35 DJSim22

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 04:24 PM

Gimenez, Belisle, and Breslow are the three new vets Seth has making the team and I agree with this is how it will play out.I'd personally roll with Gimenez and Belisle and keep Boshers.

 

We need a big improvement in pitching, have two veterans in the bullpen who can gets outs and another veteran catcher to work with the staff is not a bad idea.Garver should be catching everyday in Rochester.Anyone really upset about Gimenez taking Murphy's spot?Is anyone really upset that Belisle gets a spot over Tonkin or Duffey?Breslow gets a spot over Boshers?Not to mention most of the guys not making the team that are listed will probably see time due to injuries.If nothing else there's more depth. 


#36 Deduno Abides

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 04:57 PM

I'm curious why people are willing to give Gibson a guaranteed spot in the rotation but think Santiago should be removed.
 
I think Gibson has a slightly higher chance of being above average but when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Santiago have a better season (as low as that bar may be for both of them).
 
They're basically the same age and Santiago has a longer, better track record.


Gibson has a better track record - more years with higher WAR, especially averaging the last three years. He costs much less and has years of control remaining. He has more upside if they can fix last year's problems with his delivery. Santiago is losing velocity and has worse control. Santiago's peripheral stats are consistently worse. Santiago's track record is elevated by greatly exceeding his peripherals. As Randall Simon, the one-time All Star, has shown, that is unlikely to continue.
If I had to do the same again, I would, my friend, Fernando!

#37 Buddy Holly

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 05:23 PM

I will agree that Danny Santana will go north with the team as the 25 man. They will be selling t-shirts with "DanSan 25th man" on front and "no entiendo WAR" on back. 

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#38 djvang

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 05:25 PM

I'm not convinced Polanco has enough arm for SS. He seems to know it too and rushes his throws. Hopefully they'll be able to keep Adrianza in AAA as a backup. Dozier could still be dealt during the season with Polanco moved to 2B.


#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 06:06 PM

Gibson has a better track record - more years with higher WAR, especially averaging the last three years. He costs much less and has years of control remaining. He has more upside if they can fix last year's problems with his delivery. Santiago is losing velocity and has worse control. Santiago's peripheral stats are consistently worse. Santiago's track record is elevated by greatly exceeding his peripherals. As Randall Simon, the one-time All Star, has shown, that is unlikely to continue.

You just illustrated why I have huge problems with fWAR for pitchers.

If a guy "gets lucky" for four consecutive seasons and two different teams, it becomes pretty hard to argue it's "luck" with a straight face.

FIP-based metrics have a place and they're accurate for most players but we need to admit they're flat-out broken for others (e.g. Nolasco, Ricky).
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#40 ThejacKmp

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 06:39 PM

Santana would be the Twins only pinch runner who can steal a base. That's worth something as the 25th man as well.

 

Wish it was Murphy over Gimenez but it's not important enough.




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