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Article: Tyler Jay Shifting To The Bullpen (Minor League Notebook)

tyler jay lachlan wells aaron whitefield mitchell kranson alex kirilloff
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#41 DaveW

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:04 PM

If Jay's ceiling as a reliever is elite then it is still not a wasted pick. Is a shutdown reliever a valued commodity?


He better reach that ceiling then.

Color me very very skeptical in the meantime.

Elite closer or bust I guess?
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#42 jud6312

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:05 PM

 

If Jay's ceiling as a reliever is elite then it is still not a wasted pick. Is a shutdown reliever a valued commodity?

The point isn't that it's not a nice piece to have, but not with the 6th pick in the draft. That's where you should be finding your heart of the order and top of the rotation, not a new version of Norm Charlton.

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#43 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:06 PM

Yeah but those guys you're thinking of were, you know, starters before they were called up and sent to the pen.
Thinking that Jay, who hasn't pitched more than 83 innings in a season would transition back to a starter is IMO, preposterous.

I underestimated how many innings he has actually thrown, so you are probably right. However I was thinking several years into the future. Still probably not likely.
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#44 DaveW

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:09 PM

The point isn't that it's not a nice piece to have, but not with the 6th pick in the draft. That's where you should be finding your heart of the order and top of the rotation, not a new version of Norm Charlton.


+1

I have also always found it weird that if a guy wasn't good enough to crack a college rotation...why on earth do people think he will be good enough to crack a major league rotation? I mean I guess it would only make sense if the guy was either a super super super late bloomer or on an all time great college team or something...
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#45 jud6312

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:20 PM

Don't get me wrong, I hope Tyler becomes the next Billy Wagner, and he, Burdi, Chargois and Reed have to have a Royal Rumble-style contest every game to see who gets to come in and strike out the side to secure another win.

 

I just wish he didn't have to come to it by way of an early draft pick.


#46 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:31 PM

Was he really that guy though? I honestly don't remember him being thought of as a steal at #6. I seem to recall him being rated in the mid-teens, behind a few guys that went after him. 

 

Followup question: how often does a a college reliever become a frontline rotation piece? Common or a longshot?

I wasn't a fan of the pick at the time.

 

I just acknowledge what I see as an attempt to crack the conundrum of going for high ceiling in an area of chronic need while still getting a high floor after pick #1 or 2. Look at the history of #6 picks - they are not guaranteed studs. Instead of a high school arm that results in nothing (the risk they bear with Kohl Stewart for instance), they have a talented reliever. Or at least, in theory. The criticism in extreme terms now that Plan B is invoked seems overwrought.

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#47 jud6312

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:42 PM

 

I wasn't a fan of the pick at the time.

 

I just acknowledge what I see as an attempt to crack the conundrum of going for high ceiling in an area of chronic need while still getting a high floor after pick #1 or 2. Look at the history of #6 picks - they are not guaranteed studs. Instead of a high school arm that results in nothing (the risk they bear with Kohl Stewart for instance), they have a talented reliever. Or at least, in theory. The criticism in extreme terms now that Plan B is invoked seems overwrought.

I think it's just that it seems to be happening so early in his career. Fad he been given more time to start and either fail or continue experiencing arm fatigue, or whatever we want to call it, people wouldn't be so critical of the pick.

 

It just feels rushed and/or an indication that, despite what both sides are saying, they don't think his arm will work in the rotation.

 

The other problem I have with this is that it's being done under the guise of getting him to MN quickly. While most/all of the other young arms are seemingly being brought along slowly, why are we to believe that Jay is the exception? He's had arm "issues," so why are his issues not as big of a deal as Burdi's or Romero's?

 

The whole thing just seems weird to me.

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#48 DaveW

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:43 PM

Yeah, god forbid we criticize a team that has exactly one good first round pick in the last 10 or so years, and a team that has been the worst team in baseball overall the last six years. Especially when most people at the time pointed out that drafting a college reliever that high was a very very very questionable decision.

Edited by DaveW, 18 March 2017 - 08:44 PM.

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#49 Thrylos

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:50 PM

 

Yeah, god forbid we criticize a team that has exactly one good first round pick in the last 10 or so years,

 

Whodat?

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#50 DaveW

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:56 PM

Whodat?

Buxton

Gordon, Stewart and the kid last year COULD be good as well, too early to tell though.

Clear though that Revere, hicks, Parmelee, Gutierrez, Gibson, michael, wimmers were all massive misses. Jay is a miss so far as well since he is already going to the pen

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#51 Taildragger8791

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:57 PM

Yeah, I don't buy that he'll ever be converted back to a starter once he's entrenched in the bullpen. It takes years to build up to a 200+ inning season. Assuming he stayed healthy he was 4 years away from getting to 200 as it is. Going back to the bullpen would stall or undo that progress.

 

Not to mention if he succeeds in becoming elite it'll be one heck of a gutsy move to take him out of the bullpen on the off chance he can replicate that success in the rotation. You better be right when you make a call like that.

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#52 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 08:58 PM

I think it's just that it seems to be happening so early in his career. Fad he been given more time to start and either fail or continue experiencing arm fatigue, or whatever we want to call it, people wouldn't be so critical of the pick.
 
It just feels rushed and/or an indication that, despite what both sides are saying, they don't think his arm will work in the rotation.
 
The other problem I have with this is that it's being done under the guise of getting him to MN quickly. While most/all of the other young arms are seemingly being brought along slowly, why are we to believe that Jay is the exception? He's had arm "issues," so why are his issues not as big of a deal as Burdi's or Romero's?
 
The whole thing just seems weird to me.

I think the days of young Twins pitchers grinding out season after season in the minors are done. It will be much more case-by-case going forward.

The old front office should have known about drafting Jay and trying to make him into a starter. The new front office at least is correcting course right away.
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#53 jud6312

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:03 PM

 

I think the days of young Twins pitchers grinding out season after season in the minors are done. It will be much more case-by-case going forward.

The old front office should have known about drafting Jay and trying to make him into a starter. The new front office at least is correcting course right away.

I hope you're right, and at times I think you are. Then guys like Breslow and Vogelsong are brought in and I'm left scratching my head. If there's one place that veteran JAGs aren't needed, it would seem to be in the bullpen/back of the rotation.

 


#54 Willihammer

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:04 PM

Tweet from Doogie:

This is all perfectly consistent with the Twins standing policy of developing players in one role in the minors, and changing it at the ML level.

Don't see what all the hubbubs about.
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Well, there's that.

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#55 Thrylos

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:06 PM

 

Buxton

Gordon, Stewart and the kid last year COULD be good as well, too early to tell though.

Clear though that Revere, hicks, Parmelee, Gutierrez, Gibson, michael, wimmers were all massive misses. Jay is a miss so far as well since he is already going to the pen

 

Gibson will be ok.Surer thing than Buxton at this point.

 

 

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#56 Taildragger8791

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:07 PM

 

Buxton

Gordon, Stewart and the kid last year COULD be good as well, too early to tell though.

Clear though that Revere, hicks, Parmelee, Gutierrez, Gibson, michael, wimmers were all massive misses. Jay is a miss so far as well since he is already going to the pen

 

I wouldn't call Revere a miss, even if he did have some deficiencies. Getting an elite defensive CF with excellent baserunning skills with the 28th pick is about as good as you can expect to do. He'll probably end up with a lengthy MLB career for a reason.

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#57 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:22 PM

I hope you're right, and at times I think you are. Then guys like Breslow and Vogelsong are brought in and I'm left scratching my head. If there's one place that veteran JAGs aren't needed, it would seem to be in the bullpen/back of the rotation.

I don't get it with the replacement level veterans, either.

One thing about Cleveland when Falvey was there, was they seemed to promote guys by what was best for the player. The example is reliever Cody Allen, who was a 20th round pick, but was promoted through the minors about as fast as humanly possible with no ill effect. So obviously they saw something in Allen and didn't let the memory of his draft round cloud their judgment. I bet if Jay thrives again as a reliever and stays healthy there's a 50/50 chance we see him in MLB this season.
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#58 DaveW

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:39 PM

I wouldn't call Revere a miss, even if he did have some deficiencies. Getting an elite defensive CF with excellent baserunning skills with the 28th pick is about as good as you can expect to do. He'll probably end up with a lengthy MLB career for a reason.

The prob with Revere is his ceiling was always a "meh" 4th/5th OF type. He has reached that ceiling which is fine, but never should have been a first round pick to begin with. He had negative 1.2 WAR last year, so not sure he is going to have too much longer of a career....

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#59 DaveW

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:43 PM

Gibson will be ok. Surer thing than Buxton at this point.

He's a #5 basically. You need to do better with your first round picks.

Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS  7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR
 


#60 Taildragger8791

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Posted 18 March 2017 - 09:45 PM

The prob with Revere is his ceiling was always a "meh" 4th/5th OF type. He has reached that ceiling which is fine, but never should have been a first round pick to begin with. He had negative 1.2 WAR last year, so not sure he is going to have too much longer of a career....

Well he's signed this year so he'll at least end up at 9 years in the majors. I think he'll get a few more as long as his speed holds up.

I can't fault the Twins when there wasn't anybody drafted right after him that did anything at all. It's just not that likely to find a high caliber starter there unless it's a deep draft.

Edited by Taildragger8791, 18 March 2017 - 09:46 PM.

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