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Article: Twins Need To Be Buyers Next Winter

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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:56 AM

Not to be pedantic, but shouldn't it read "playoff berth"?

 

Pretty sure "playoff birth" isn't the correct terminology.

 

But, yes, I agree the Twins should start adding pieces next offseason. While I'm generally not a fan of $150m contracts to free agents, I'd be happy with the Twins picking up guys in the $50-90m range.

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#42 Dantes929

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:56 AM

 

3-19 is not random. In fact, it's so one sided that it almost disproves a claim of randomness all on its own.
If it were just random, the expected result would be right around .500.

I used to play a ton of cribbage on line and won 60% but would still have stretches where I would go 3-19 with some of them even against poor players. Sorry about the bragging  but the coin flip is close to 50/50 odds and randomness is what allows there to be wide variations in small sample results. Twins against the Yankees were less than 50/50 con flip but if they were to play another 22 games I would have been happy to take the chances.  In fact I am still a bit bitter about 2008 tie breaker loss.  KC was one out from their playoff record being 0-1 in 2014 instead of  11-4.  Twins getting hot was always a possibility. The fact that it didn't happen is no proof that it could not happen. Those Twins teams always did well really well in interleague and did just fine against the AL West. They were not as good as the AL East teams but still did even worse against them than the bad KC teams against them.  I never understood it.  More mental than physical.

Don't Sweat the Small Stuff ... and it's all small stuff.


#43 ThejacKmp

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:02 AM

 

I think refusing to compete for the best ML free agents is a mistake. No different than chosing not to pursue other talent, such as trades or int'l free agents. It's self limiting and short sighted.

 

But if everyone else is jumping off a cliff, we should too?
 

Signing 30 year old starting pitching to the 5-7 year contracts they get today is fraught with peril. The contracts almost never work out for the back half of the deal and often don't for the front. You only need to look at guys like Johan, Halladay, Sabathia, Zito, Shields, Cain, Lincecum, Hampton and even Verlander to see how those can become anchors holding a franchise back.

 

The Yankees can afford the back half of a Sabathia contract (though even in NYC it's tough) but the Twins need to be smart enough to know they can't do that. I don't call it "refusing to compete for the best ML free agents", I call it "being smart enough to avoid the mistakes that big franchises make."


#44 Tom Froemming

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:06 AM

 

Not to be pedantic, but shouldn't it read "playoff berth"?

 

Pretty sure "playoff birth" isn't the correct terminology.

 

But, yes, I agree the Twins should start adding pieces next offseason. While I'm generally not a fan of $150m contracts to free agents, I'd be happy with the Twins picking up guys in the $50-90m range.

You are correct, sir. But I have no way of editing it :(

 

If all these guys actually hit the market next year, even if they all have great seasons I'd imagine somebody attractive would land into that $50-90M range just based off there being more supply than demand. Plus, it's possible some teams may look to "save" money next offseason in hopes of having the cash to throw at Harper, Machado or Kershaw after 2018 (assuming they all go to free agency that winter). 


#45 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:38 AM

 

You are correct, sir. But I have no way of editing it :(

 

If all these guys actually hit the market next year, even if they all have great seasons I'd imagine somebody attractive would land into that $50-90M range just based off there being more supply than demand. Plus, it's possible some teams may look to "save" money next offseason in hopes of having the cash to throw at Harper, Machado or Kershaw after 2018 (assuming they all go to free agency that winter). 

No worries, fixed it for you. I wasn't trying to call you out or anything, I was legitimately curious. I thought I was right but wasn't sure.

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#46 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:40 AM

 

Yup....this.  I'd spend some in FA, but not the drunken sailor spending that some want.

 

As the GM of the WS champion Cubs states, if you are rational about FAs, you won't sign FAs.

 

He was also the GM of the WS champion Red Sox.

 

He also signs FAs to big deals.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#47 Tom Froemming

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:41 AM

 

You only need to look at guys like Johan, Halladay, Sabathia, Zito, Shields, Cain, Lincecum, Hampton and even Verlander to see how those can become anchors holding a franchise back.

Yeah, those Zito, Cain and Lincecum deals really crippled that Giants franchise. They've had such a terrible run over the past decade :) Also, Verlander doesn't deserve to be lumped into that group. He had one bad year. Sabathia on his first deal was great, he gave the Yankees four excellent seasons. 

 

I get what you're saying, but there's crazy variance/injury risk for all starting pitchers.

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#48 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:43 AM

 

The Cubs were a totally different team. They had a braintrust that had spent those past three years (not three months, three YEARS) specifically accumulating position player talent (including the ballsy-at-the-time drafting of Schwarber, a guy without a position who could hit like hell). They knew they had a market that could support 2-3 long contracts on free agent starting pitchers so they explicitly eschewed drafting pitching (the most volatile of stocks) to draft projectable position players. Arrieta was a gamble that extended their window and made their current budget less stretched but they were a team that planned on buying pitching at some point. Very little of their pitching is homegrown, it's a benefit for being in a big market,

 

That's just not the Twins. They're a different market of team with very different priorities. Let's recognize the stratum of MLB franchises -- the Cubs are closer to the Yankees than they are to the Twins. Ugh.

 

so just give up on one of the ways to acquire talent, and admit you are can't really compete?

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#49 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:44 AM

 

Great teams don't have "Jason Tyner, DH" as a lineup feature.

 

Teams that spend on FA to fill that "one last hole" don't have Jason Tyner, DH, either. 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#50 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 08:50 AM

 

But if everyone else is jumping off a cliff, we should too?
 

Signing 30 year old starting pitching to the 5-7 year contracts they get today is fraught with peril. The contracts almost never work out for the back half of the deal and often don't for the front. You only need to look at guys like Johan, Halladay, Sabathia, Zito, Shields, Cain, Lincecum, Hampton and even Verlander to see how those can become anchors holding a franchise back.

 

The Yankees can afford the back half of a Sabathia contract (though even in NYC it's tough) but the Twins need to be smart enough to know they can't do that. I don't call it "refusing to compete for the best ML free agents", I call it "being smart enough to avoid the mistakes that big franchises make."

 

How is not signing FAs working out for this team, exactly? Which teams are actually winning more games? 

 

Of course the contracts almost never work out over the entire length, that's the cost of being in the game of MLB or NFL or NHL or NBA. If you aren't willing to pay that price, you'll pretty much never sign a big FA, meaning you are at a huge disadvantage. 

 

Look, if you want to own a major league sports team, and you aren't willing to sign big time FAs? Maybe you shouldn't own a major league sports team. Of, you should just admit you are never going to be good over a sustained period, and you'll never likely buy that one missing piece. 

 

If that's your strategy, then you have to be one of the best at acquiring and developing talent. Does anyone think the Twins are significantly above average at either of those?

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#51 Brandon

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:02 AM

I would say trade for Quintana and sign one of the pitchers and our rotation should be good.

#52 Brandon

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:02 AM

I would say trade for Quintana and sign one of the pitchers and our rotation should be good.

#53 Brandon

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:02 AM

I would say trade for Quintana and sign one of the pitchers and our rotation should be good.

#54 Cory Engelhardt

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:03 AM

 

They like one way opt outs.Not the kind where the team can nullify the contract.

 

No, you are right, it would have to be a one way opt out.


#55 Vanimal46

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:29 AM

 

The Pohlad's aren't going to spend big in free agency. Until they do it once, I don't think we should give them the benefit of the doubt that they'll do it. The new FO - particularly Falvey - come from orgs that didn't really rely on free agency. It's not a surprise that the Twins wanted that in their FO. Our bigger worry is that they won't pony up the money to keep these young position players around in a few years.

 

Concur. They'll never be comfortable to hand out $100+ MM contracts to FA pitchers... It's a bit silly to think they'll be in contention of signing Cueto, Arietta, etc. Falvey was brought on to acquire talent in other ways besides opening up the checkbook and handing out 9 figure contracts.

I'd like them to be buyers for sure, but through trades, international signings, and other routes.

 

And like you, I'd rather they pony up and hand out lengthy extensions to Buxton, Sano, and whomever else breaks out in the future.  

 

 

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#56 mikelink45

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:35 AM

I am here with my prejudice for young players.  We once dipped in to the big payroll and extended years with a guy named Mauer and I have seen more whining and anguish over that than almost anything the Twins have or have not done.  I look at the big contracts like Pujols and Fielder and Howard where teams go crazy paying for past performance with little expectation of getting what the contract is supposed to buy.

 

The Cubs did not succeed because of Lester, they got there by developing players and if the TD rankings of prospects and reports from Florida are to be believed we just might have the talent ready to rise.  Better we get the young arms producing and then let the other guys give them the big extensions for the end of their careers.

 

The nucleus is there, the potential is there, even at SS where the pundits weep over Polanco's fielding we have Javier and Gordon coming along.  This team is two years from going past contending to a real threat.  Load up the young guys and get it going.

 

No more Hughes, Nolasco, Santiago, Pelfrey, Correia, Pavano, Hernandez, Rogers... Get the talent coming up to produce, it is the only way this team can truly be competitive over the long run.  I understand what you are saying, but I do not want any of these players.  I would prefer the young potential prospects over guys who have already stressed their arms and have limited years ahead.

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#57 Kwak

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 10:19 AM

Just mention the Mauer contract around 1 Twins Way sends people scurrying like cockroaches in a newly lit room.  No way are they going to spend big money on a multi-year contract--for a pitcher!  This team is not a contender or even close.  When the team is rebuilt to a consistent winner, then the checkbook might open for a 1-year big money contract for a pitcher ala` Jack Morris. But next year--pure fan fiction.


#58 TheLeviathan

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 10:37 AM

 

As the GM of the WS champion Cubs states, if you are rational about FAs, you won't sign FAs.

 

He was also the GM of the WS champion Red Sox.

 

He also signs FAs to big deals.

 

While the Twins can certainly do more (much more) I think your comparisons are rather flawed.  As much as I like Epstein, he's never been held to much of a budget. And when you have that kind of budget you have more room to make mistakes and you can throw reason out the window a little more freely.

 

At some point reality has to be in the equation here a bit.  A timely splash?  Sure.  Dropping 25M on one player every offseason?  Not reality.  And not wise either.


#59 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 10:45 AM

 

While the Twins can certainly do more (much more) I think your comparisons are rather flawed.  As much as I like Epstein, he's never been held to much of a budget. And when you have that kind of budget you have more room to make mistakes and you can throw reason out the window a little more freely.

 

At some point reality has to be in the equation here a bit.  A timely splash?  Sure.  Dropping 25M on one player every offseason?  Not reality.  And not wise either.

 

It wasn't an argument for spending on 5 players, but that people are saying "FA contracts turn out badly at the end, never sign a big time FA". His response is quite clear, those back years suck, but if you want the fun of the good years, that's the actual price of the good parts of the deal.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#60 TheLeviathan

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 10:52 AM

 

It wasn't an argument for spending on 5 players, but that people are saying "FA contracts turn out badly at the end, never sign a big time FA". His response is quite clear, those back years suck, but if you want the fun of the good years, that's the actual price of the good parts of the deal.

 

You responded to me and I said I'd rather not spend like a drunken sailor.  You then quoted a GM about spending irrationally.

 

I stand by what I said - I don't want to spend like a drunken sailor.  FA, for the Twins, will always have to be measured and smart.  Even if it becomes more aggressive.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 17 March 2017 - 10:52 AM.




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