Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Twins Need To Be Buyers Next Winter

jake arrieta yu darvish johnny cueto masahiro tanaka
  • Please log in to reply
125 replies to this topic

#21 S.

S.

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 669 posts

Posted 16 March 2017 - 10:47 PM

 

There's also an outside possibility Japanese ace Sho Otani gets posted next offseason, so it could be completely bonkers it terms of pitching talent (or everyone could sign extensions between then and now, who knows).

Oops, missed this post


#22 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 522 posts

Posted 16 March 2017 - 10:53 PM

Also the Timberwolves are fighting for a playoff berth the way Leonardo DiCaprio was gambling for a seat on the Titanic. They're 4 games out with 15 to go and even if they got a good hand and made the playoffs, they'd be slaughtered by the iceberg (Golden State/San Antonio). More accurately, they're 11/15 in the West.
 
You can rip on the Twins success all you want but using the Timberwolves as proof is ridiculous. The Twins have been to the playoffs more recently than the Timberwolves and the Wolves play in a league where 53% (16/30) teams make the playoffs compared to 33% (10/30) in MLB. The Twins have also come closer (2015) than the Wolves have since Ricky Rubio was 18 and playing in Spain.
 
And that 2015 year (when the Twins narrowly missed the playoffs) was closer to a World Series championship than EVERY SINGLE YEAR the Timberwolves have played except 2003. No other Timberwolves team had even the smallest of chances of reaching the Western Conference Finals, let alone the Big Dance. MLB playoffs are as random as anything this side of who's-goalie-is-hotter hockey.
 
Baseball is a different beast than basketball. Let's not compare sports.


Wasn't trying to compare sports or their successes, was moreso just trying to outline the fact that to a general sports fan in the Twin Cities there are a lot of other options out there. That's especially true now that the Wolves at least interesting.
  • GP830 and KirbyDome89 like this

#23 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 522 posts

Posted 16 March 2017 - 11:09 PM

The track record of pitchers signing 5+ year deals at 30 is ridiculous. Twins Daily should riot if the Twins make that kind of a choice at the end of 2016. This is not a team with a 2 year window, this is a team that is 2 years from having a 5 year window. This offseason we should be taking gambles on the next Arrieta, not paying up the wazoo for the current Arrieta. 
 
Could not disagree more with this "spending spree".


If their window opens in 2019, why would it be such a terrible idea to sign a veteran pitcher before the start of the 2018 season?

Sure, finding the next Jake Arrieta or Corey Kluber sounds great. It's not that easy. As ridiculous as the track record is of free agents, I think you're more likely to have things work out there than counting on just uncovering a diamond in the rough like that. They should be trying to find those guys, but not counting on it.
  • USAFChief, Mike Sixel, Twins33 and 6 others like this

#24 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 7,672 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 12:02 AM

The Pohlad's aren't going to spend big in free agency. Until they do it once, I don't think we should give them the benefit of the doubt that they'll do it. The new FO - particularly Falvey - come from orgs that didn't really rely on free agency. It's not a surprise that the Twins wanted that in their FO. Our bigger worry is that they won't pony up the money to keep these young position players around in a few years.

  • Mike Sixel, Vanimal46, GP830 and 1 other like this

#25 KirbyDome89

KirbyDome89

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 753 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 12:21 AM

 

This is a complete and utter aside. Want to admit that from the front. but . . .

 

I've heard people talk about "the Twins not winning a playoff games since 2004" before and it bothers me. It is just too negative for my taste. Those Twins teams in the mid oughts may not have won a game but they were super competitive in those series. They played the Yanks and A's super close and lost games in heartbreaking fashion. Those weren't bad teams indicative of fluke success - they were teams that ended up on the negative side of postseason luck.

 

We live in a wild card era where teams not winning a playoff game is more indicative of not really being a postseason team. The Twins teams from 2007-2009 were true playoff caliber teams and deserve to be recognized as such.

On the flip side I've never liked the argument that the Twins were the victim of bad luck in the postseason. Since that last series win in 02' they're 3-19 in all other series. Those aren't those ridiculous one game wild card set ups either. I just can't subscribe to the idea that these were great teams but every year they just succumbed to bad luck once the calendar turned to October. That record speaks for itself. Even if the playoffs are a crap shoot as you've described then their odds would still be 50%. To say its just bad luck seems off the mark. 

 

 I've never heard anybody say those weren't good teams, but when they consistently fail to get out of the divisional round (not to mention getting swept their last three appearances) it takes some of the luster away from those division crowns. 

  • Mike Sixel, Oldgoat_MN, SF Twins Fan and 1 other like this

#26 USAFChief

USAFChief

    ɹǝɯoפ

  • Twins Mods
  • 17,643 posts
  • LocationTucson

Posted 17 March 2017 - 05:23 AM

On the flip side I've never liked the argument that the Twins were the victim of bad luck in the postseason. Since that last series win in 02' they're 3-19 in all other series. Those aren't those ridiculous one game wild card set ups either. I just can't subscribe to the idea that these were great teams but every year they just succumbed to bad luck once the calendar turned to October. That record speaks for itself. Even if the playoffs are a crap shoot as you've described then their odds would still be 50%. To say its just bad luck seems off the mark. 
 
 I've never heard anybody say those weren't good teams, but when they consistently fail to get out of the divisional round (not to mention getting swept their last three appearances) it takes some of the luster away from those division crowns.


Great teams don't have "Jason Tyner, DH" as a lineup feature.
  • Jerr, Mike Sixel, Ben B and 4 others like this

I am not the paranoid you're looking for.


#27 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,788 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 17 March 2017 - 05:23 AM

Isn't Kershaw a free agent this offseason as well?


#28 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,788 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 17 March 2017 - 05:27 AM

On topic, I think a big splash likely makes sense next season.I guess it depends on how the current pitching crop works out. I suppose Santana continues to be Santana.Hughes could be back to 2014, Gibson could show his 2015 second half, and Mejia could hit the ground running and suddenly we aren't worried about pitching... Then again, unicorns exist, right?

 

So baring everything breaking good, I think they need to pick up one good pitcher, possibly 2. The real problem is cutting bait with the guys who aren't performing while still giving the younger guys a chance.

  • Twins33, Tom Froemming, caninatl04 and 1 other like this

#29 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,846 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 05:42 AM

Also the Timberwolves are fighting for a playoff berth the way Leonardo DiCaprio was gambling for a seat on the Titanic. They're 4 games out with 15 to go and even if they got a good hand and made the playoffs, they'd be slaughtered by the iceberg (Golden State/San Antonio). More accurately, they're 11/15 in the West.

You can rip on the Twins success all you want but using the Timberwolves as proof is ridiculous. The Twins have been to the playoffs more recently than the Timberwolves and the Wolves play in a league where 53% (16/30) teams make the playoffs compared to 33% (10/30) in MLB. The Twins have also come closer (2015) than the Wolves have since Ricky Rubio was 18 and playing in Spain.

And that 2015 year (when the Twins narrowly missed the playoffs) was closer to a World Series championship than EVERY SINGLE YEAR the Timberwolves have played except 2003. No other Timberwolves team had even the smallest of chances of reaching the Western Conference Finals, let alone the Big Dance. MLB playoffs are as random as anything this side of who's-goalie-is-hotter hockey.

Baseball is a different beast than basketball. Let's not compare sports.


3-19 is not random. In fact, it's so one sided that it almost disproves a claim of randomness all on its own.
If it were just random, the expected result would be right around .500.
  • Mike Sixel, Oldgoat_MN and Tom Froemming like this

#30 Cory Engelhardt

Cory Engelhardt

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 558 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul, MN
  • Twitter: enge0280

Posted 17 March 2017 - 06:13 AM

Most big time free agents LOVE opt out clauses now. The twins could be creative and offer HUGE money for 2 years with an opt out for a pitcher. Then if he were to be injured, the Twins are saved for 6 years of paying an injured player.

On the flip side, if the pitcher does pitch well for 2 years, that is a good thing right?

 

Of those listed, Tillman and Pineda interest me some, as well as maybe Darvish. Could be interesting to see what happens.

  • HitInAPinch and Tom Froemming like this

#31 laloesch

laloesch

    Member

  • Members
  • 1,112 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 06:59 AM

 

The track record of pitchers signing 5+ year deals at 30 is ridiculous. Twins Daily should riot if the Twins make that kind of a choice at the end of 2016. This is not a team with a 2 year window, this is a team that is 2 years from having a 5 year window. This offseason we should be taking gambles on the next Arrieta, not paying up the wazoo for the current Arrieta. 

 

Could not disagree more with this "spending spree".

 

Yep.  The Twins are 3 or 4 starters away from competition STILL and there is not much on the horizon that is remotely close and has proven a thing.  I was really hoping that this season would be big year for May, but as it stands now having TJ at 27....hard not to think that his career is essentially over after watching other guys taking  1 year and 1.5 years to come back.  Hughes is a shadow of his former self.  Duffey and Gibson are absolute train wrecks, Santiago is Nolasco light and Berrios can't handle major pitching.

 

Were do they go from there?  They are NOWHERE near ready to go out and spend big on premium major league starters when they have nothing else to pair it with.  If anything the new FO needs to purge guys like Hughes, Mauer, Santiago, Perkins, etc. over the next two years.  Guys who are not living up to expectations and are taking up large chunks of the payroll.  Clear some space so that in 2 years the club will have much greater flexibility to make meaningful moves and go after quality starters, to pair with some of the up and coming talent.  

 

The only hiccup is that there doesn't appear to be that many guys on the way up given how bad the team has been these past five years.  Who else is there besides Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Meija?.  Thorpe missed 2015 and 2016 with TJ surgery and a viral infection and is off the radar.  Kohl Stewart looks like a flop with the horrible K/9 rates.  Tyler Jay is struggling to convert to a starting role.  

Edited by laloesch, 17 March 2017 - 07:14 AM.


#32 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,788 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:07 AM

 

Most big time free agents LOVE opt out clauses now. The twins could be creative and offer HUGE money for 2 years with an opt out for a pitcher. Then if he were to be injured, the Twins are saved for 6 years of paying an injured player.

On the flip side, if the pitcher does pitch well for 2 years, that is a good thing right?

 

Of those listed, Tillman and Pineda interest me some, as well as maybe Darvish. Could be interesting to see what happens.

They like one way opt outs.Not the kind where the team can nullify the contract.

  • Twins33, Oldgoat_MN and adorduan like this

#33 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,788 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:11 AM

 

Yep.  The Twins are 3 or 4 starters away from competition STILL and there is no-one on the horizon yet that is even remotely close and has proven a thing.  I was really hoping that this season would be big year for May, but as it stands now having TJ at 27 his career is essentially over before it started IMO.  Hughes is a shadow of his former self.  Duffey and Gibson are train wrecks, Santiago is Nolasco light and Berrios can't handle major pitching.

 

We are NOWHERE near ready to go out and spend big on premium major league starters when we have nothing else to pair them with.  If anything they need to purge guys like Hughes, Mauer, Santiago, etc.  Guys who are not living up to expectations and are taking up large chunks of the payroll.  Clear some space so that in 2 years the club will have much greater flexibility to make meaningful moves and go after quality starters, possibly an ace to pair with some of the up and coming talent.  The only problem i see is that there aren't really that many guys on the way up besides Berrios, Gonsalves, and Romero.   

 

This is where I disagree.The hitting core is here now. You're right about the pitching in that there's way too many question marks and the likeliness of having a playoff caliber starting 5 to start the season in 2017 is low.But with the hitting core here, they will need to do something or they will squander it. I think it's safe to say that some guys will establish themselves in 2016. The question is how many. If we walk into next season saying Santana and pray for rain... well, yeah, time to spend. If on the other hand, Berrios, Mejia, and Gibson all have good season, then perhaps you don't need to.The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle, but getting one top shelf FA to fill out a negative WAR position in the rotation will likely pay huge dividends.

 

Also, plenty of pitchers have come back from TJ successfully.No reason to write off May just yet.

  • Mike Sixel, beckmt, Oldgoat_MN and 5 others like this

#34 laloesch

laloesch

    Member

  • Members
  • 1,112 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:23 AM

 

This is where I disagree.The hitting core is here now. You're right about the pitching in that there's way too many question marks and the likeliness of having a playoff caliber starting 5 to start the season in 2017 is low.But with the hitting core here, they will need to do something or they will squander it. I think it's safe to say that some guys will establish themselves in 2016. The question is how many. If we walk into next season saying Santana and pray for rain... well, yeah, time to spend. If on the other hand, Berrios, Mejia, and Gibson all have good season, then perhaps you don't need to.The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle, but getting one top shelf FA to fill out a negative WAR position in the rotation will likely pay huge dividends.

 

Also, plenty of pitchers have come back from TJ successfully.No reason to write off May just yet.

 

It took me a while to edit my post. I agree with you on the hitting.  I'm still bummed out on the May deal.  Not a good sign when you put so much hope on one guy.  I absolutely do agree with not squandering the core of hitting talent we have now.  From the offensive perspective i think this team is close, it's just the darn pitching that's killing them right now.  We ALL really do need to pray for rain this season and hope that Berrios, Meija, Gonsalves continue to progress towards major league roles. This is a BIG BIG year to see what they have down there otherwise I think the FO will be forced to fork over a TON of money in desperation to get starters here sooner.

Edited by laloesch, 17 March 2017 - 07:25 AM.

  • diehardtwinsfan and Tom Froemming like this

#35 Dantes929

Dantes929

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,509 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:32 AM

 

Great teams don't have "Jason Tyner, DH" as a lineup feature.

I don't recall him being a DH much but sure they do.  Punto was a key player down the stretch in Cardinals Series run.  Tyner hit .312 in 2006 and .299 as a Twin.  Twins got swept by Oakland who they beat up on in the regular season with our Cy Young on the mound. They played the Yankees a lot who were the better team but they still lost games they had leads in with an all star reliever on the mound. Worse teams have won more in the playoffs  (87 Twins perhaps). We had enough talent to do a lot better.  

  • ThejacKmp and Shaitan like this

Don't Sweat the Small Stuff ... and it's all small stuff.


#36 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Billy G.O.A.T

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,450 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:40 AM

I don't like 30-year-old pitchers, there's nowhere to go but down. I'm also in the camp that spending on position players is a better move. If the team still can't develop their own arms, I'd rather trade for a young arm, even if it's a painful trade.

 

Or you know, the team could instead spend the money needed to make the team's scouting and development of pitchers the cream of the crop in the league. How much would it actually cost to steal other teams best scouts and minor league instructors? It's probably a pittance compared to what they'd pay for even a back of the rotation starter.

  • Mike Sixel, Oldgoat_MN and Tom Froemming like this

#37 ThejacKmp

ThejacKmp

    Wing Commander

  • Members
  • 1,119 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:42 AM

 

Yep.  The Twins are 3 or 4 starters away from competition STILL and there is not much on the horizon that is remotely close and has proven a thing.  I was really hoping that this season would be big year for May, but as it stands now having TJ at 27....hard not to think that his career is essentially over after watching other guys taking  1 year and 1.5 years to come back.  Hughes is a shadow of his former self.  Duffey and Gibson are absolute train wrecks, Santiago is Nolasco light and Berrios can't handle major pitching.

 

Were do they go from there?  They are NOWHERE near ready to go out and spend big on premium major league starters when they have nothing else to pair it with.  If anything the new FO needs to purge guys like Hughes, Mauer, Santiago, Perkins, etc. over the next two years.  Guys who are not living up to expectations and are taking up large chunks of the payroll.  Clear some space so that in 2 years the club will have much greater flexibility to make meaningful moves and go after quality starters, to pair with some of the up and coming talent.  

 

The only hiccup is that there doesn't appear to be that many guys on the way up given how bad the team has been these past five years.  Who else is there besides Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Meija?.  Thorpe missed 2015 and 2016 with TJ surgery and a viral infection and is off the radar.  Kohl Stewart looks like a flop with the horrible K/9 rates.  Tyler Jay is struggling to convert to a starting role.  

 

Well hey there Mr. Negative. Let's get off the ledge ok?

May had a setback but Heezy was talking in another thread about how May's surgery is easier than other TJs (repair vs. replacement of the connection). TJ has become really common. Saying May's career is over is a bit ridiculous - he should be back next year so let's be excited for that.

 

Duffey may be better suited for the pen but he looks to be dominant there. So that's good.

 

Berrios is 22 years old. 22. He'll be fine, even though he struggled last year. Tons of pitchers (including a certain Johan Santana) struggle when they first come up. Position players too. No need to give up on Berrios. He may not be a #1 but he should be a nice little middle rotation pitcher.

 

Mejia looks like a solid back of the rotation lefty with some upside to become a #3 starter. That's good.

 

And the Twins do have guys like Hughes and Santana and Santiago leaving in the next year or two, just as they have a whole crop of young talent coming up. Stewart has struggled with the K/9 but he has the elite stuff and is very young for his advancement. Thorpe has had everything go wrong that can go wrong and is still only 21 and looking to attack A ball again. Tyler Jay is still stretching out but stuff-wise, he's been everything the Twins thought he could be when they drafted him. Romero is as good a prospect as anyone and looks to potentially be that #1 guy. Jorge is a nice back-of-the-rotation pitching prospect as well. Further down the ladder, the Twins have the #1 draft pick this year and Huscar Ynoa graduating rookie ball.

 

Not all of that will stick or make it of course and there is some concern about the lack of a dominant #1 but there's a lot of really fun pitching prospects working their way up the ladder. The Twins may not be amazing this year but if Santana, Hughes and Santiago can string together some good work, they become nice trade bait.

 

We don't need to go get Jake Arrieta but we also don't need to be negative. There's a new sheriff in town and he has both a plan and some nice horses to do the plan with. Let's keep on the bright side of life.

  • MN_ExPat likes this

#38 Tom Froemming

Tom Froemming

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 522 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:45 AM

 

Isn't Kershaw a free agent this offseason as well?

 

He can opt out following the 2018 season. Seems highly likely that he will, unless the Dodgers give him an extension. 


#39 ThejacKmp

ThejacKmp

    Wing Commander

  • Members
  • 1,119 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:47 AM

 

3-19 is not random. In fact, it's so one sided that it almost disproves a claim of randomness all on its own.
If it were just random, the expected result would be right around .500.

 

Sorry, as random in sports, not coin flipping. I never liked Billy Beane much but he's a pretty good baseball mind who talked about the randomness of baseball playoffs. The 87 Twins were a garbage team who went all the way cuz they got hot (Les freaking Straker was their #3 starter) while the 1991 Twins were objectively not as good as the 1991 Jays but beat them anyway.

 

In basketball, the best teams make it to the finals most years - you don't get a #6 seed going. Football is a bit more random with the sudden death format but again, the worst playoff teams don't have a chance (you could redo the 2016 NFL playoffs 100 times and the Raiders and Texans never make the Super Bowl). Baseball is a lot more random - better teams lose all the time and any team that makes it has the potential to go all the way. I'd say that hockey is more random since it seems like all you need is a hot goalie and you're capable of beating anyone.


#40 ThejacKmp

ThejacKmp

    Wing Commander

  • Members
  • 1,119 posts

Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:53 AM

 

The hitting core is here now. 

 

Oh man, disagree. The hitting core is on the verge but we'll only know after this year. If Buxton takes the step we all hope, Rosario rebounds, Sano rebounds, Kepler doesn't fall apart, Vargas shows it's for real etc., than we'll know it's here. And even then, you open a 5-7 year window with the hitting core. No need to panic and restrict your ability to sign guys like Buxton, Sano, Rosario or Kepler to longer deals by signing the huge contracts it would take to get elite pitching to come to a non-contending middle market like MN.

 

The Twins need to trust their young pitching prospects over the next two years while their hitting develops. It'd help to be able to trade Dozier/Hughes/Santana for more prospects during that period but they have the internal options to build a rotation that can consistently get them to the playoffs. 




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: jake arrieta, yu darvish, johnny cueto, masahiro tanaka