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2017 Minnesota Twins Breakout Candidate — Eddie Rosario?

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#21 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:20 PM

A comparison of where Rosario is making mistakes, shown with comparisons of players with very different profiles:

 

Player name: Outside Zone Swing % / Zone Contact % / Outside Zone Contact %

 

Miguel Cabrera: 30% / 67% / 87%

Joe Mauer: 23% / 77% / 91%

Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79%

 

Rosario is swinging at way too many pitches outside the strike zone but his contact rate on those pitches is acceptable. So he either needs to stop swinging at those pitches - which would likely see an increase in his contact rate outside the zone - or he can take this route:

 

Vladimir Guerrero: 39% / 67% / 89%

Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79%

 

As we all know, Vlad never saw a pitch he didn't like. But notice how he hammered pitches in the zone, a full 10 points higher than Rosario. So, if Eddie remains intent on swinging at everything, he needs to put wood on the ball when it's in the strike zone.

 

Two paths, both can have success, but both require adjustment for Rosario.

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#22 Doomtints

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:23 PM

ROSARIO MVP 17


#23 Vanimal46

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:29 PM

Rosario is always going to be one part intriguing, and another part frustrating.

When he's on at the plate, he's tearing the cover off the ball. When he's off, he's a near automatic out. We saw that in April/May last year.

That's the biggest concern since he doesn't draw walks. I don't expect him to draw a ton of walks, but it sure would make those slumps easier to handle if he did.
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#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:35 PM

 

A comparison of where Rosario is making mistakes, shown with comparisons of players with very different profiles:

 

Player name: Outside Zone Swing % / Zone Contact % / Outside Zone Contact %

 

Miguel Cabrera: 30% / 67% / 87%

Joe Mauer: 23% / 77% / 91%

Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79%

 

Rosario is swinging at way too many pitches outside the strike zone but his contact rate on those pitches is acceptable. So he either needs to stop swinging at those pitches - which would likely see an increase in his contact rate outside the zone - or he can take this route:

 

Vladimir Guerrero: 39% / 67% / 89%

Eddie Rosario: 44% / 65% / 79%

 

As we all know, Vlad never saw a pitch he didn't like. But notice how he hammered pitches in the zone, a full 10 points higher than Rosario. So, if Eddie remains intent on swinging at everything, he needs to put wood on the ball when it's in the strike zone.

 

Two paths, both can have success, but both require adjustment for Rosario.

 

shouldn't we compare him to average players? These are HOF names.....they can do things no mortal can. 

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#25 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 03:45 PM

I'd be curious on those contact rates and if it is hard hit vs. soft hit. I'd be willing to bet that he's getting a lot more weak grounders on those pitches outside the plate than he is when it's in the zone.Everyone is right, he doesn't need Mauer's patience.But if a little of Mauer rubbed off on him, he'd be a very good hitter while being an above average corner defender.

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#26 Steve Lein

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 03:46 PM

Easy explanation for all of this, and one I've held ever since seeing him in the minors:

 

Eddie is more or less a guess swinger combined with superb bat control. 

 

Yes, it would be great if he could lay off some pitches and draw more walks, but he's deciding he's swinging before a pitch is even thrown most of the time. He admitted as much after his home run from his first MLB at bat that you cite. He was swinging no matter what.

 

That's why you see him swing at pitches he has no business swinging at and looking silly for doing so, and missing a lot of other pitches because he's guessed wrong.

 

But, he's also very good at putting the bat on the ball on pitches he is able to touch when he's right, e.g.: the superb bat control.

 

He's gonna put a lot of pitches in play that he shouldn't because of that, and is what holds him back from putting up the batting lines you're hoping he will.

 

Every once in a while he's going to catch one like that pitch from Tomlin, but he's always going to be streaky depending on how he's doing on his guesses, and I don't find it quite likely that it's ever going to sway the way of benefiting him more than it hurts.

 

The Kirby Puckett reference is a little misleading to me as well because I have to ask the question: Do I expect Eddie to suddenly turn into .318 career hitter like Puckett, where he's so good at hitting the OBP becomes a moot point? No, I don't for the reasons mentioned above.

 

All that said, he's plenty capable of putting up enough numbers with his approach to be a fine player, he has already demonstrated that. But I do also think we've already seen pretty close to the best that he is capable of unless he does become more selective somehow. If I had to predict his career, .275/.310/.450 is about where I'd put him. 

Edited by Steve Lein, 16 March 2017 - 03:57 PM.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#27 snepp

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 04:42 PM

Looking at plate discipline profiles and comparisons based upon his current numbers, Rosario profiles very similarly to Jeff Francoeur.

 

Fancoeur

http://www.fangraphs...platediscipline

 

Rosario

http://www.fangraphs...platediscipline

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#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 04:44 PM

 

shouldn't we compare him to average players? These are HOF names.....they can do things no mortal can. 

They weren't meant to be direct comparisons, just an illustration how Rosario needs to alter his approach in one of a few ways to show more success.

 

Just because he profiles in contact rate similarly to Miguel Cabrera doesn't mean he'll turn into Miguel Cabrera. It'll just mean he's Eddie Rosario, only a little bit better than he is today.

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#29 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 04:46 PM

 

Looking at plate discipline profiles and comparisons based upon his current numbers, Rosario profiles very similarly to Jeff Francoeur.

 

Fancoeur

http://www.fangraphs...platediscipline

 

Rosario

http://www.fangraphs...platediscipline

Similar, but a little bit worse. Francoeur has a lower swing rate outside the zone and a higher contact rate inside the zone.

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#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 04:48 PM

 

Eddie is more or less a guess swinger combined with superb bat control.

Except he doesn't when you look at it. The guy had a 78% contact rate inside the zone last season.

 

Suberb bat control would be Mauer-esque with a low 90s contact rate inside the zone. Or even Ben Revere, who is also in the low 90s IIRC.

 

I wouldn't consider anyone elite with that contact rate below 87-88. Eddie has a long way to go to get to that point.

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#31 snepp

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 04:53 PM

 

Similar, but a little bit worse. Francoeur has a lower swing rate outside the zone and a higher contact rate inside the zone.

 

The "but a little worse" part is what really hurts, because Francoeur was/is one of the poster children of having zero selectivity at the plate.

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#32 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 04:58 PM

 

The "but a little worse" part is what really hurts, because Francoeur was/is one of the poster children of having zero selectivity at the plate.

Yep, which was kinda the point I was making with the above comparisons. There are a few ways Eddie can improve, each of which will result in different, better performance. He can either reel in his pitch selection or improve his in-zone contact or both.

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#33 Dr. Evil

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 05:01 PM

Eddie was a stud at most levels in the minors. I think he will turn out to be a stud in the majors too. I think the guy is David Justice waiting to happen. Plus, he has a cool name just like Justice. One can hope, right?
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#34 ShouldaCouldaWoulda

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 05:42 PM

 

I don't believe he needs a decent BB rate, which I would consider somewhere in the 7-8% range.

 

If Rosario puts wood on the ball more often and walks 5-6% of the time, he could be a valuable player. He needs to improve his BB rate a bit but I see it as more of a swing decision issue than pursuing walks. If Eddie stops swinging at sliders in the dirt a foot wide of the plate, his BB rate will increase a bit but more importantly, he'll stop striking out on unhittable pitches and start putting the ball in play with more frequency. Rosario likes to swing and that's fine - not everything is about the BB - but Eddie needs to stop swinging at pitches he cannot hit.

 

But he'd also be the kind of player you usher out of the organization while he has value, because players like that tend to nosedive hard and fast as they approach or pass 30 years old. A loss of a step and/or a loss of bat speed turns them into pumpkins in a hurry.

I think he settles in between where he was the past two seasons. Not bad, but not great. An average 3rd OF. With stretches of greatness, and stretches where people are screaming for him to be benched or sent down.

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#35 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 06:04 PM

You cannot ignore past results - some have been darn ugly and some have been a thing of beauty.

 

This season he will play all but a couple of games at the age of 25... 25 is YOUNG!!!

 

My gut tells me he is going to have a break out year and he will make enough adjustments going into the future to the point where he will be considered one of our top 3 position players.

 

When I watch him play, I see an edge that I don't see in most players. Right now he is chaos, he just needs to wrangle in his chaotic tendencies into a holding pen to a certain extent, and go play some baseball!

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#36 David HK

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 07:49 PM

 

You cannot ignore past results - some have been darn ugly and some have been a thing of beauty.

 

This season he will play all but a couple of games at the age of 25... 25 is YOUNG!!!

 

My gut tells me he is going to have a break out year and he will make enough adjustments going into the future to the point where he will be considered one of our top 3 position players.

 

When I watch him play, I see an edge that I don't see in most players. Right now he is chaos, he just needs to wrangle in his chaotic tendencies into a holding pen to a certain extent, and go play some baseball!

I concur in toto.  I really, really, dig that edge.

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#37 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 08:07 PM

 

I concur in toto.  I really, really, dig that edge.

Hell Yeah David! We should be excited!

Edited by Bark's Lounge, 16 March 2017 - 08:24 PM.

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#38 Steve Lein

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:24 AM

 

Except he doesn't when you look at it. The guy had a 78% contact rate inside the zone last season.

 

Suberb bat control would be Mauer-esque with a low 90s contact rate inside the zone. Or even Ben Revere, who is also in the low 90s IIRC.

 

I wouldn't consider anyone elite with that contact rate below 87-88. Eddie has a long way to go to get to that point.

 

You misinterpret what the "guessing" part plays in that, as that is why he also misses a lot in the zone.

 

-> "That's why you see him swing at pitches he has no business swinging at and looking silly for doing so, and missing a lot of other pitches because he's guessed wrong.

But, he's also very good at putting the bat on the ball on pitches he is able to touch when he's right, e.g.: the superb bat control."

Edited by Steve Lein, 17 March 2017 - 09:30 AM.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:28 AM

 

You cannot ignore past results - some have been darn ugly and some have been a thing of beauty.

 

This season he will play all but a couple of games at the age of 25... 25 is YOUNG!!!

 

My gut tells me he is going to have a break out year and he will make enough adjustments going into the future to the point where he will be considered one of our top 3 position players.

 

When I watch him play, I see an edge that I don't see in most players. Right now he is chaos, he just needs to wrangle in his chaotic tendencies into a holding pen to a certain extent, and go play some baseball!

 

25 isn't all that young in MLB anymore. 

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#40 drjim

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:34 AM

 

25 isn't all that young in MLB anymore. 

 

It's still pretty young. About 2 years younger than the average age on the youngest team (Arizona) from 2016. Average age of mlb player was 28.4 in 2016.

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