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2017 Minnesota Twins Breakout Candidate — Eddie Rosario?

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#1 Brandon Warne

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Posted 15 March 2017 - 06:09 PM

As one of Rosario's most vocal critics I never had any idea I'd be writing this. Then I did some homework:

 

http://zonecoverage....-eddie-rosario/

 

As always, critiques and discussion are welcomed!

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#2 BK432

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Posted 15 March 2017 - 07:24 PM

Interesting. Thanks for writing this up, Brandon. I don't think you'd disagree with my desire to believe a change can happen when I see it, but perhaps there is more to Rosario than what I've figured too. I'm willing to hope for it.

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#3 GP830

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Posted 15 March 2017 - 07:51 PM

The book on Ed has always been that he swings at everything. I remember a thread of here a year ago asking if he was was maybe the best overall player on the team. Of course, most said no- despite a super promising rookie season.

I've been tempted to say similar things about Kepler prior to this year. Something about speedy outfielders with great defensive chops and a little pop brings it out in me, I guess.

I've always liked Rosario and would love to see him step up- he has such immense talent in some aspects of the game.
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#4 GP830

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Posted 15 March 2017 - 08:02 PM

Great piece, by the way.
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#5 TheLeviathan

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Posted 15 March 2017 - 09:49 PM

I sure hope so, I really am rooting for this kid.

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#6 kab21

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 12:08 AM

The tools and raw hitting ability are certainly there. He will need to show atypical improvement to realize it. 

But if he only improves a little from his career averages and puts up a .275/.310/.450/.760 line with above average corner OF defense then he is an average or better starter. I can live with that. 

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Is 2016 2017 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Looks like we will have to wait another year until a good pitching prospect is actually blocked.


#7 The Wise One

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 01:14 AM

As yet, Rosario has not a single walk this spring. Hitting .375isbetter than walks

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#8 AZTwin

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 01:44 AM

A few years ago when they were both in Beloit I said that Rosario would be the better pro than Sano. I might want to eat those words but sadly it's still wide open. Would love to see both these kids prove it one way or the other
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#9 AZTwin

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 01:46 AM

To be fair when I said that I had Rosario as a 2B and thought he'd hold more value per position

#10 HitInAPinch

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:31 AM

I think the key to Rosario is concentration.He goes on spurts, then seem to lose focus.I think a comp to Puckett is possible:Puckett was ALWAYS zoned in.With 2 MLB seasons under his belt, I think a repeat of 2015 is possible.Maybe better, if in the zone.

 

btw:thanks for the interesting stats!

Edited by HitInAPinch, 16 March 2017 - 02:39 AM.

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It's not my fault !


#11 iTwins

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 06:42 AM

Rosario has all the elements of a very good player. He has power - can use all fields (as evidenced in the OPS figures Brandon cited) - and has an elite arm in the OF. It's all just a matter of him putting it together consistently. He's young enough that I think it's still realistic to expect that to happen. 

 

I'm rooting for the kid - I hope this is the year it all falls into place. 

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#12 gunnarthor

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 07:42 AM

Let's hope so. I don't think he needs to walk a ton but he does need to have better selectivity on what he does swing at.  If he can force the other team to throw strikes, he has enough natural talent to be a high average/high pop hitter.  But his rookie season is his ceiling if he can't improve that.

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#13 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 08:16 AM

 

Let's hope so. I don't think he needs to walk a ton but he does need to have better selectivity on what he does swing at.  If he can force the other team to throw strikes, he has enough natural talent to be a high average/high pop hitter.  But his rookie season is his ceiling if he can't improve that.

 

this.

 

I think he has the talent, but he really needs to figure out how to be selective somehow. I don't know how that works.

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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#14 markos

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 08:16 AM

One thing that wasn't mentioned in the article is that Rosario also swings and misses on pitches in the zone a lot. Of the 300 players with at least 500 PAs the past two seasons, Rosario is the 39th worst in terms of making contact when swinging at pitches in the strike zone. That isn't the be-all-end-all; however, when combined with his extreme aggressiveness on pitches outside the strike zone, it becomes a major liablity.

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#15 Tom Froemming

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 08:55 AM

Enjoyed the piece, nice to see Eddie getting some love. He's a flawed player, no doubt, but it's easy to forget he's still only 25 and I think only had 100 PAs in AAA before his original call up.

 

To put it into perspective, he's a month older than Daniel Palka. Rosie has his rough edges, but he does a lot of things really well.

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#16 GP830

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 09:08 AM

I often times wish there was a resource for non-numbers-minded people like myself to understand what the anticipated ceiling of a player is. As we well know, when a lot of scouts are saying a player has a high-ceiling, it doesn't necessarily mean they are Mike Trout. 

 

I'm guessing an okay comp for Rosario, should the best case scenario pan out, would be something close to a primetime Alex Rios. 

 

Is that accurate? 

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#17 Dr. Evil

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 10:04 AM

Awesome article Brandon!

 

I have been pulling for Rosario for a long time. I think the guy could turn out to be one of our best players in the long run.

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#18 gunnarthor

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 10:27 AM

 

I often times wish there was a resource for non-numbers-minded people like myself to understand what the anticipated ceiling of a player is. As we well know, when a lot of scouts are saying a player has a high-ceiling, it doesn't necessarily mean they are Mike Trout. 

 

I'm guessing an okay comp for Rosario, should the best case scenario pan out, would be something close to a primetime Alex Rios. 

 

Is that accurate? 

Rios played in a better offensive environment but he had a 118 OPS+ for his age 25-27 seasons.  I think Rosario's ceiling if it all comes together could be in that neighborhood.  Rosario can pick up a lot of WAR on his base running and defense as well. So it's not a horrible comparison, I suppose.

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#19 ShouldaCouldaWoulda

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 11:04 AM

I just don't think he will ever have a decent BB%, so any successful years is going to have to very reliant on BABIP and a good contact rate. If his skills start to slip in the field, he becomes Danny Santana valueless.


#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:08 PM

 

I just don't think he will ever have a decent BB%, so any successful years is going to have to very reliant on BABIP and a good contact rate. If his skills start to slip in the field, he becomes Danny Santana valueless.

I don't believe he needs a decent BB rate, which I would consider somewhere in the 7-8% range.

 

If Rosario puts wood on the ball more often and walks 5-6% of the time, he could be a valuable player. He needs to improve his BB rate a bit but I see it as more of a swing decision issue than pursuing walks. If Eddie stops swinging at sliders in the dirt a foot wide of the plate, his BB rate will increase a bit but more importantly, he'll stop striking out on unhittable pitches and start putting the ball in play with more frequency. Rosario likes to swing and that's fine - not everything is about the BB - but Eddie needs to stop swinging at pitches he cannot hit.

 

But he'd also be the kind of player you usher out of the organization while he has value, because players like that tend to nosedive hard and fast as they approach or pass 30 years old. A loss of a step and/or a loss of bat speed turns them into pumpkins in a hurry.

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