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Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two

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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 02:57 PM

 

Virtually the entire lineup was young last year. 

 

Mauer? Plouffe? Suzuki? Dozier?

 

That's 44% of the lineup. And, they signed a 29 yo DH. So, they planned on 55% of it.

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#22 Brandon Warne

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:00 PM

By weighted age, their offense was the fourth-youngest in baseball and second in the AL. I'd call that fairly young. 

 

The pitching staff was exactly the MLB average.

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#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:08 PM

 

I don't disagree, but my theory is this: you can go from oldies to the kids. You can't do vice versa. 

 

You can if you stick the oldies in the pen and summon them back to the rotation when needed like the Dodgers and Cubs do.

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#24 Brandon Warne

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:11 PM

 

You can if you stick the oldies in the pen and summon them back to the rotation when needed like the Dodgers and Cubs do.

 

The pen is where the actual good arms are on this team, though. That's the tough part.

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#25 alarp33

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:17 PM

 

By weighted age, their offense was the fourth-youngest in baseball and second in the AL. I'd call that fairly young. 

 

The pitching staff was exactly the MLB average.

 

How about Median age? The mean age does not prove your point that "virtually the entire offense was young".  Like Mike said, lots of at bats went to older guys.  4 of the top 7 in At Bats were 29 or older (Dozier, Mauer, Nunez, Suzuki)

 

The average simply says that yes, Buxton and Sano are very young

Edited by alarp33, 14 March 2017 - 03:17 PM.

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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:17 PM

 

By weighted age, their offense was the fourth-youngest in baseball and second in the AL. I'd call that fairly young. 

 

The pitching staff was exactly the MLB average.

 

I've been trying to find that listing for all the teams online, where can I find it?

 

thanks!

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#27 Tom Froemming

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:17 PM

 

I should be clear -- this is not how I'd _choose_ to structure the 25-man roster. Just how I see it playing out. 

 

... and you still think they'll win 80? Or does that prediction go down a bit with the May injury/anything else that's transpired since?

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#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:18 PM

 

The pen is where the actual good arms are on this team, though. That's the tough part.

 

These guys?

 

RP1- Ryan Vogelsong Justin Haley
•RP2- Michael Tonkin Craig Breslow
•RP3- Matt Belisle
•RP4- Buddy Boshers Tyler Duffey
•RP5- Taylor Rogers
•RP6- Ryan Pressly
•RP7- Brandon Kintzler

 

I'll keep Pressly and Rogers, no one else would stop me from putting the vets in the pen and rolling with Berrios and Mejia in the rotation.

 

Wow, this team just looks so bad. Not that I'm disagreeing with your predictions. If they're going to lose, at least let me watch the young guys. April is going to be almost unwatchable waiting for the young guys to get another shot.

 

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#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:18 PM

 

How about Median age? The mean age does not prove your point that "virtually the entire offense was young".  Like Mike said, lots of at bats went to older guys.  4 of the top 7 in At Bats were 29 or older (Dozier, Mauer, Nunez, Suzuki)

 

The average simply says that yes, Buxton and Sano are very young

 

I think weighted average takes ABs into account.....which is key. 

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#30 alarp33

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:20 PM

 

I think weighted average takes ABs into account.....which is key. 

 

Right.  But an average is brought down by players like Buxton and Sano who are only 22 or whatever.  That doesn't tell you "the lineup was very young overall"... it really is just telling us the average is low because a couple of guys were very young. 

 

 

I'm just nitpicking the statement "virtually the entire lineup was very young last year".  It wasn't.  Sano, Kepler, Buxton were very young... but half the lineup was 29+

Edited by alarp33, 14 March 2017 - 03:23 PM.

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#31 Brandon Warne

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:26 PM

 

I think weighted average takes ABs into account.....which is key. 

 

Yes, it does. 

 

Here's where you want to go: http://www.baseball-.../MLB/2016.shtml

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#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:28 PM

 

These guys?

 

RP1- Ryan Vogelsong Justin Haley
•RP2- Michael Tonkin Craig Breslow
•RP3- Matt Belisle
•RP4- Buddy Boshers Tyler Duffey
•RP5- Taylor Rogers
•RP6- Ryan Pressly
•RP7- Brandon Kintzler

 

I'll keep Pressly and Rogers, no one else would stop me from putting the vets in the pen and rolling with Berrios and Mejia in the rotation.

 

Wow, this team just looks so bad. Not that I'm disagreeing with your predictions. If they're going to lose, at least let me watch the young guys. April is going to be almost unwatchable waiting for the young guys to get another shot.

 

Yep, it's going to be frustrating to say the least.... And, don't forget, there's no room to promote 24 year old Nick Burdi, about to be 26 year old Mason Melotakis, and 26 year old Trevor Hildenberger. 

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#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:29 PM

I don't see JT on the list either....

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#34 Brandon Warne

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:29 PM

 

Yep, it's going to be frustrating to say the least.... And, don't forget, there's no room to promote 24 year old Nick Burdi, about to be 26 year old Mason Melotakis, and 26 year old Trevor Hildenberger. 

 

There'll be plenty of room. You basically use up the old guys, cut or trade them and install the kids. 

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#35 Brandon Warne

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:30 PM

 

I don't see JT on the list either....

 

On the "just missed." You could easily put him on the roster instead of Duffey with Duff starting at Rochester. I love Chargois. 

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#36 Brandon Warne

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:31 PM

 

Right.  But an average is brought down by players like Buxton and Sano who are only 22 or whatever.  That doesn't tell you "the lineup was very young overall"... it really is just telling us the average is low because a couple of guys were very young. 

 

 

I'm just nitpicking the statement "virtually the entire lineup was very young last year".  It wasn't.  Sano, Kepler, Buxton were very young... but half the lineup was 29+

 

It's a weighted average. It does exactly what it's supposed to. The important players in the lineup were young last year, and got a ton of plate appearances.

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#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:31 PM

 

There'll be plenty of room. You basically use up the old guys, cut or trade them and install the kids. 

 

Like they did last year when they called up, um, 1 player before September they had drafted who had not been up before? 

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#38 Brandon Warne

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:33 PM

 

Like they did last year when they called up, um, 1 player before September they had drafted who had not been up before? 

 

Chargois was the only one beating the door down, and he got his ass kicked the first time around. The vets are a house of cards, but you need guys like Burdi/Reed/Hildy to force their hand. Hildy should have been up, but got hurt. 

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#39 Vanimal46

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:36 PM

 

There'll be plenty of room. You basically use up the old guys, cut or trade them and install the kids. 

 

I'm trying not to kill the messenger here, believe me. The Twins signed Belisle/Breslow/Kintzler to get 1-2 months of work out of them and cut bait? 

Just saying, it's skeptical at best.... I'll withhold my pitchfork until there's real evidence from the new regime.... It would be a welcomed approach compared to the past, where veterans only get cut if they were truly awful. And still they would have a spot as mop up guy for another month. 

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#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 03:36 PM

 

Chargois was the only one beating the door down, and he got his ass kicked the first time around. The vets are a house of cards, but you need guys like Burdi/Reed/Hildy to force their hand. Hildy should have been up, but got hurt. 

 

Fair, we probably disagree some on the veteran thing and how ready a RP needs to be. No biggie.

 

To me the blunder has been repeatedly filling the RP corps with guys w/o options, then being unwilling to move one and send guys back and forth. But, across the league, pitching is getting younger....except here, where a guy has to be perfect in the minors to get a chance. On a rebuilding team.

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