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Article: Report From The Fort: Minor League Notebook

lewis thorpe trevor hildenberger nelson molina dereck rodriguez tommy watkins
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#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 13 March 2017 - 05:23 PM

 

Full cast or just a boot?

 

Just a boot. He said he should be good to go in a week.


#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 13 March 2017 - 05:30 PM

 

why is Hildenberger likely to start in AA?Just curious.

 

Might want to be slower with the elbow thing that ended his 2016 season a month early. Moreso, it may just be about early-season numbers.


#23 Seth Stohs

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 06:11 AM

 

I have been reviewing the Twins top 50+ prospects for months now along with their rankings.It appears there has not been many new inclusions or exclusions from the lists published.  

Based upon the above comment, here are my questions...

1. How many new players made their debut on the top 50 prospect list this year that were not on the prior years list? 

2.Do you prepare a revised list following seeing the entire group in Spring Training?

I guess I am curious about the above questions because aside from projections, evaluating talent is very tough, often subjective and ones body of work is not always a clear representation of what the future will hold. 

The reality is if any of the experts who identified talent were perfect, they'd either be GM's, team owners or run a pro sports book in Vegas. Haha!

I'd think that many players develop, evolve and perform differently following instructs, off season training, etc. for a myriad of reasons.

Love to hear your thoughts...

 

There are always a few guys called up that aren't on Top 40s. Guys like Wimmers or Beresford last year. Could be relievers, backup infielders or outfielders, spot start types, etc.

 

I personally do a Top 40 around midseason. I do a preliminary Top 40-50 after the season, before I dive headfirst into the Prospect Handbook. Then my "official" Top 40 is in the Twins Prospect Handbook which comes out in January. As I'm at spring training, I spend 8-9 days watching minor leaguers in practice and in games, which helps... and it certainly can affect rankings some too. Seeing builds, BP, how they practice and interact, talking to players, coaches, managers and others. Definitely subject to change. 

 

As for Twins Daily, we post at midseason and in February. 

 

Prospect rankings are far from scientific. 


#24 Seth Stohs

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 06:15 AM

 

I have been reviewing the Twins top 50+ prospects for months now along with their rankings.It appears there has not been many new inclusions or exclusions from the lists published.  

Based upon the above comment, here are my questions...

1. How many new players made their debut on the top 50 prospect list this year that were not on the prior years list? 

2.Do you prepare a revised list following seeing the entire group in Spring Training?

I guess I am curious about the above questions because aside from projections, evaluating talent is very tough, often subjective and ones body of work is not always a clear representation of what the future will hold. 

The reality is if any of the experts who identified talent were perfect, they'd either be GM's, team owners or run a pro sports book in Vegas. Haha!

I'd think that many players develop, evolve and perform differently following instructs, off season training, etc. for a myriad of reasons.

Love to hear your thoughts...

 

Let me add this too... speaking to it not being scientific and inexact and such.

 

Prospect rankings are about upside, ceiling first and foremost. A guy like Wander Javier has the potential to be an All Star, but he hasn't even played in the GCL. A guy like Alex Wimmers is still a "prospect." His ceiling at this point is a 7th inning reliever, and his likelihood of being called up again is probably pretty high, whether it is with the Twins or someone else.  

 

A guy like Pat Dean wasn't ever a top prospect, and yet, his floor was pretty high. He got to the big leagues and can be a back-end of a rotation starter, swing man type. 

 

So, prospect rankings are one piece. Ceiling is one large piece of it, but proximity and age and things like that play in as well. And, guys outside of the rankings can still have solid MLB careers in a role. Why? Guys that are ranked 41-60 are still really good baseball players. In fact, if I were to rank Twins prospects 1-150, player 150 has a lot of baseball talent. 


#25 MVPMAKER

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Posted 14 March 2017 - 09:41 AM

Seth, thanks!

 

I agree that sometimes a specific skill set and role may play before overall talent and a high ceiling, based upon team need versus individual potential.  

 

Thanks for all your hard work and answering my questions.




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