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Don't Fret About Twins Prospect Rankings

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#161 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 March 2017 - 11:07 AM

They haven't only been unlucky but they've been pretty damned unlucky.

Look at 2011. You have a 28 year old Mauer, a 30 year old Morneau, a 27 year old Liriano, a 29 year old Baker, a 32 year old Cuddyer, and a 29 year old Kubel who all imploded damned near simultaneously.

That was the core of a 94 win team the previous season.

Were mistakes made? Yes, absolutely... But we're talking about three players with 6+ WAR potential and three more with 3+ WAR potential who all fell flat on their face at virtually the same time.

That's some pretty **** luck right there and the kind of disaster season from which it's hard to recover.

That doesn't excuse later mistakes but there's nothing wrong with acknowledging how sometimes, things just go to hell and it's out of anyone's control.


That applies to every franchise though. Not over a small sample like one season, but over say a decade, the luck is going to even out.
When one team appears to get more or less unlucky over a span of several seasons then it's likely due to skill, not luck.

For example, you could say that the Twins got pretty lucky that ESan and Dozier had great seasons last year. Both are on reasonable to friendly contracts, and it happened right in the middle of a regime changing rebuild. Most teams in a rebuild would love to have cheap, proven tradeable assets like that.
However, we chose to double down and try to get more at the deadline or next offseason.
I guarantee that if they don't work out, there are some here claiming they got unlucky that those 2 assets lost value, even though we pushed our luck by declining to trade them when they were already right around peak value.
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#162 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 March 2017 - 11:10 AM

 

Sure, what Ryan does with his budget is on him. But I think his rhetoric about the Pohlads was mostly him falling on the sword for thrifty owners.
I would have liked to see more risk from Ryan- sometimes going all in on an impact player instead of rationing his budget across several safe signings.
However, that said, I just find it hard to believe that he would intentionally spend significantly below budget.

 

I disagree, but I admit it's speculation.  I think the picture will be clearer in a few years, but my vibe on Ryan's tenure was that he did, in fact, underspend what was allowed.  And that he made no effort to push for more allowance.


#163 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 March 2017 - 11:12 AM

 

That applies to every franchise though. Not over a small sample like one season, but over say a decade, the luck is going to even out.
When one team appears to get more or less unlucky over a span of several seasons then it's likely due to skill, not luck.

For example, you could say that the Twins got pretty lucky that ESan and Dozier had great seasons last year. Both are on reasonable to friendly contracts, and it happened right in the middle of a regime changing rebuild. Most teams in a rebuild would love to have cheap, proven tradeable assets like that.
However, we chose to double down and try to get more at the deadline or next offseason.
I guarantee that if they don't work out, there are some here claiming they got unlucky that those 2 assets lost value, even though we pushed our luck by declining to trade them when they were already right around peak value.

 

100% this. It won't be bad luck if they don't get much for ESan and/or Dozier, it will be on them.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#164 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 March 2017 - 11:17 AM

I disagree, but I admit it's speculation. I think the picture will be clearer in a few years, but my vibe on Ryan's tenure was that he did, in fact, underspend what was allowed. And that he made no effort to push for more allowance.


Correct, we should find out soon enough.
Keep on mind though that the new regime has already preemptively stated on several occasions that you don't need payroll to build a winner. Benign comments maybe, but also maybe tempering us for later when they face the same constraints.
I'll be very interested in 3 things:
1) Seeing if we make a legit attempt at any of the elite free agents that start coming onto the market next year and especially in 2 years.
2) Seeing if they commit to keeping Buxton and Sano long term if they both hit their ceilings.
3) Seeing if they make an all in move the next time we are one or 2 players away- something Ryan never did.
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#165 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:35 PM

 

Sucks that for 6 years now they've been unlucky. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact they drafted and developed poorly and have no veterans to trade....

 

 

Compared to....? You knew I'd ask that... ;)

 

Not to obscure what Pseudo and markos are talking about though, I think we can all agree that, in a broad sense, the returns for all those players should have been better. Some of us think much better. Maybe we can all agree that there was at least some bad luck as a contributing factor to sub-optimal returns. Most of us would probably concede that they squandered some opportunities as well. And then there were the frighteningly bad trades involving Ramos, Delmon Young, Hardy...(shudders*). 

 

Bottom line: had we gotten better results in more of these trades, and had we executed a more thoughtful sell discipline with regards to players near the end of their control windows, etc., we would have enjoyed two benefits. One, our rebuild would have been more efficacious, and two, our prospect pipeline today would include more talent.

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#166 DaveW

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Posted 10 March 2017 - 11:08 PM

I don't fret about the prospect rankings, I fret because they maybe have two guys in the org who look like they potentially have a decent chance to be #3 or better SP types.

They need a lot more high upside arms because I will stop "fretting".

Ryan and co destroyed this franchise over the last 6 years. Hopefully the new regime can fix things post haste.

Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS  7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR
 


#167 Doomtints

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Posted 11 March 2017 - 11:57 AM

 

They haven't only been unlucky but they've been pretty damned unlucky.

 

Strange how unlucky and cheap tend to go together with all professional sports teams.


#168 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 08:07 AM

With Tyler Jay moving to the bullpen this thread seems relevant again.....


#169 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 10:57 AM

With Tyler Jay moving to the bullpen this thread seems relevant again.....

Jay moved to the pen?

#170 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 10:58 AM

Ah, I see the article now. Okay, don't really like that move but I have faith Falvey and Levine know more about the situation than I do.

#171 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 01:03 PM

 

Ah, I see the article now. Okay, don't really like that move but I have faith Falvey and Levine know more about the situation than I do.

 

They know more than me too, but that doesn't make me feel better about the state of our farm's starting pitching options.

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#172 drjim

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 01:06 PM

They know more than me too, but that doesn't make me feel better about the state of our farm's starting pitching options.


I'm not exactly sure how anyone could feel *good* about the current options.
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Papers...business papers.

#173 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 01:18 PM

 

I'm not exactly sure how anyone could feel *good* about the current options.

 

Well here you have a thread with multiple people trying to argue exactly that!  Enjoy!

 

I marvel at the gymnastics, it's quite impressive.

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#174 DaveW

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 01:49 PM

As it stands now: the Twins current rotation is probably one of the worst 5 in all of MLB. Depth wise in the minors? Prob worst 5 in the MLB.

They are going to pull off some nifty trades, signings or catch some serious lightning in 2-3 bottles to get this club back to a playoff contending rotation.

Not sure we can just count on finding the next Johan Santana in the rule 5 draft or getting a Liriano type thrown into a lopsided trade....

At some point this org needs to figure out how to develop some front end starting pitching. Garza, Berrios, Gonzalves are about the only ones they have developed in the last 10 years.

Not good.

Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS  7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR
 


#175 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 02:01 PM

They know more than me too, but that doesn't make me feel better about the state of our farm's starting pitching options.

Oh I didn't mean to imply that the news doesn't suck. But it may be the correct decision.

Unfortunate, though.

#176 drjim

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 07:00 PM

Well here you have a thread with multiple people trying to argue exactly that! Enjoy!

I marvel at the gymnastics, it's quite impressive.


Seems I missed a riveting thread.
Papers...business papers.

#177 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 07:02 PM

When would some of you fret?
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I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#178 gunnarthor

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 08:20 AM

 

Seems I missed a riveting thread.

Meh, you've seen it elsewhere.

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